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March 2023 General Discussion


Hoosier
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3 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Looks like a beautiful day on tap here to do some chores outside, then head down to town and pick up a few things before the storm arrives.
Looking like a doozy with up to 30” by Saturday 8 am and still snowing.

285CFAE8-2067-42FC-B474-A9C409E5464A.png

Might have jumped the gun on this one.  12z models so far do not look good.  Hi-res even looks horrible if you're wanting an epic storm up here.  Oh well, tbh, I'd rather not have the headache of 2-3 feet right now.

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17 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

There seems to be a discrepancy between what's being reported.

Sunday evening when the latest storm was winding down, snow depth was 50"...but 12 hours later at 12z yesterday morning it was "only" 37.

NOWData for Duluth shows a depth of 37" on 3/12 and 3/13, and 35" on 3/14.  I wonder if the interim 50" was someone (or automated) adding the new snowfall to the previous depth, without actually measuring the depth itself (?).

116.4" of snow for the season; record is 131.0" in 2013-14.

Don't take this as a complaint about Duluth's winter climo :snowing: ...but I always find it strange how 116.4" of snow can fall in a cold place like Duluth, but the max depth has never exceeded 37".  It's like once you hit a certain depth, it's almost impossible for it to get much higher due to compaction and sublimation.  Even in January (with hardly any melting due to the low sun angle), 17" of snow fell but the depth only increased by 2".  And much of this snow was synoptic, not lake effect.

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NWS Duluth's take on snow totals today. South Shore will do well, but I'm thinking the North Shore will only just make min guidance here, my gut anyway. 6-8" would be just fine with me. Starting as rain, and slowly transitioning to snow is a big factor, combined with increasing N winds bringing loads of dry air. Guess we shall see. Event starts tonight.

March 17 snow.gif

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18 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

There seems to be a discrepancy between what's being reported.

Sunday evening when the latest storm was winding down, snow depth was 50"...but 12 hours later at 12z yesterday morning it was "only" 37.

Interesting. Sunday, the winds picked up quite a bit for while. The airport recorded winds up to 45 mph. So, either human error, or winds messing things up a bit.

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3 hours ago, Brian D said:

NWS Duluth's take on snow totals today. South Shore will do well, but I'm thinking the North Shore will only just make min guidance here, my gut anyway. 6-8" would be just fine with me. Starting as rain, and slowly transitioning to snow is a big factor, combined with increasing N winds bringing loads of dry air. Guess we shall see. Event starts tonight.

March 17 snow.gif

Over here, the 12z Euro and GFS verbatim are predicting 18 and 17" as opposed to 37 and 48" 24 hours ago. Still respectable but can't say I'm surprised by the reduction in totals.  And it's probably not done.

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22 hours ago, Brian D said:

NWS Duluth's take on snow totals today. South Shore will do well, but I'm thinking the North Shore will only just make min guidance here, my gut anyway. 6-8" would be just fine with me. Starting as rain, and slowly transitioning to snow is a big factor, combined with increasing N winds bringing loads of dry air. Guess we shall see. Event starts tonight.

March 17 snow.gif

New forecast is much as I expected would be the case. 

Had some light rain showers yesterday, and some drizzly weather this morning. Radar showing precip moving in real soon. Let the slop fest begin.

March 17 snow 2.gif

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13 hours ago, Harry said:

This goofy office will never learn with their 131 bs... 

Regardless of them the LES setup looks decent around here. Can't wait for it to get fully into the Hrr range etc. 

Yesterday morning they did throw you a bone.

In general, this looks to be a 1"-4" event
from U.S. 131 to the west, plus the addition of Calhoun County.

 

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Hoping this weekend is our last real "cold" push of the season. 
We better not get another shot of -20C at 850 mb lol. Does unfortunately look like a chance for another decent cool shot by late March standards beyond the Thursday-Friday system next week. The ensemble mean snow output next weekend into the following work week hints that some threat for snow may accompany the cool down.

Ensemble guidance and teleconnection suggests a relaxation of the predominantly -NAO of late early-mid next week should be followed by another round of -NAO blocking. Until we can fully kick that blocking tendency, we may see a continuation of fairly pronounced cold shots following warm ups.

The good news is that there currently aren't any signs of April 2018-like nonsense heading into next month.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

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Rain held on til somewhere midnight-ish.  I fell asleep around 11 and it was raining, woke up at 1:30 to go to bed and it was snowing.  Have picked up 4.5" of really wet paste...a lull in activity now with just light snow and flurries but snow will increase again later today with a foot possible in this local area before things end.

 

 

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