Ruin Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: That is pretty odd. There has always been something brewing for the tue-wed time frame. Here is the GFS from 48 hours ago. actually its par for the course. if you ever go past day 5 on local or even nws casts vs models. they are very hesitant to put any storms past those days most times. unlike summer where they normally do. Ive seen times where I look 7 plus days out the temp will swing 20-30 sometimes and it will go from sunny to heavy precip 5 times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 From CTPs discussion for tomorrow night Latest model guidance shows 850mb wind speeds over 60kts across the southern part of the state early Friday morning. Bufkit soundings indicate surface gusts of 40-50kts are possible and have continued mention of potential wind hazard in HWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 36 this Am. Going to be quite the ride per the HRRR climbing 30 degrees by late afternoon, a Midnight high in the upper 50's and right back down to 36 again tomorrow AM. The GFS is a cornucopia of winter storms affecting different parts of PA through the whole run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 23, 2023 Author Share Posted February 23, 2023 6z GFS has a great look for the next weekend winter storm chance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 That NJ tornado was strong EF-2Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 6z GFS has a great look for the next weekend winter storm chance. Yeah, 6z progression of the early morch mauler is about as good as it could get for us LSV'rs. Clean snow event. Hell I'm down for a dirty snow event. CMC has the storm, but while its quite a long duration event, its not as favorable for us south of the turnpike. Long ways to go but for now lets just hope the wintery signal holds and see where we go from there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Jns2183 said: That NJ tornado was strong EF-2 Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greensnow Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Driving back last night from DC was tough. Extremely dense fog and 32 degrees on 81 between 105 and 135. Ton of people pulled over to the side due to visibility. Crazy. Came home to a slushy inch of WTF on the ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Fog has burned off and the sun is shining brightly. Currently 49 degrees. Only received .03" of total QPF yesterday. Very disappointing. We had an hour or so of light snow/sleet/rain and that was it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Going to be 65 here today. Winter can piss right off. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Another reason why I don't like snow maps - there are many types of maps available, and it's easy to cherry pick (unknowingly I'm sure at times) a map that either shows a lot of snow or very little. I think all of it creates both confusion and hard feelings. Some maps include sleet, some do not. I think some are based on different ratios than others. And then, there's the positive snow depth maps, which to me at least would seem to be what matters most...when the storm ends, just how much snow is going to be on the ground... Here is the 6z GFS positive snow depth map - copy paste from our neighbors to our south so it only includes the southern tier (sorry folks north of the turnpike) but for a model run that "looked" like a pure or mostly pure snow event...this looks very underwhelming: (it's a 1-4" event for us. and the storm has moved out at this point) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 14 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Going to be 65 here today. Winter can piss right off. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Are you related to a poster from WV? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 45 at 10AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: Another reason why I don't like snow maps - there are many types of maps available, and it's easy to cherry pick (unknowingly I'm sure at times) a map that either shows a lot of snow or very little. I think all of it creates both confusion and hard feelings. Some maps include sleet, some do not. I think some are based on different ratios than others. And then, there's the positive snow depth maps, which to me at least would seem to be what matters most...when the storm ends, just how much snow is going to be on the ground... Here is the 6z GFS positive snow depth map - copy paste from our neighbors to our south so it only includes the southern tier (sorry folks north of the turnpike) but for a model run that "looked" like a pure or mostly pure snow event...this looks very underwhelming: (it's a 1-4" event for us. and the storm has moved out at this point) Lets just pull the plug and get on with lawn mowing, mulching and beer drinking 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 8 minutes ago, sauss06 said: Lets just pull the plug and get on with lawn mowing, mulching and beer drinking 12Z GFS is having none of that. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Early nooners - 60 already. Windows open. So much f'n wind the next week, still. It won't really snow down here but feel like a damn jet engine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Nooners...Sunny and 56. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Nooners...Sunny and 56. Sunny and 56 here as well - thought it would be in the 60s at this point if we're going to get well into the 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: Another reason why I don't like snow maps - there are many types of maps available, and it's easy to cherry pick (unknowingly I'm sure at times) a map that either shows a lot of snow or very little. I think all of it creates both confusion and hard feelings. Some maps include sleet, some do not. I think some are based on different ratios than others. And then, there's the positive snow depth maps, which to me at least would seem to be what matters most...when the storm ends, just how much snow is going to be on the ground... Here is the 6z GFS positive snow depth map - copy paste from our neighbors to our south so it only includes the southern tier (sorry folks north of the turnpike) but for a model run that "looked" like a pure or mostly pure snow event...this looks very underwhelming: (it's a 1-4" event for us. and the storm has moved out at this point) Better way to capture individual event potential is to use the 24hr snowfall maps for any given timestamp (still not a great way to predict MBY totals, but its at least storm specific). As you stated, normal caveats apply wrt what frozen variety one receives. I typically use them primarily for frozen vs non frozen and roll the dice from their....lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 27 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 12Z GFS is having none of that. LOL GFS delivers wintry weather later next week via a well-timed trailing wave after an initial low cuts well west on Thursday. This would be a scenario that would probably be our best shot during this time frame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 56 @!2:08 56 seems like the magic number today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 32 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Sunny and 56 here as well - thought it would be in the 60s at this point if we're going to get well into the 70s. HRRR gets you to 66-68 FWIW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 62 at 12:30 - catch up kids! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, Bubbler86 said: HRRR gets you to 66-68 FWIW That seems realistic - it did spike 4 degrees over the past 30 minutes to 60 here at 12:30pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, canderson said: 62 at 12:30 - catch up kids! Yep, temps just took off here so we'll see what the next few hours brings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Geez, just now approaching 1pm and it's already up to 76 at Dulles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Geez, just now approaching 1pm and it's already up to 76 at Dulles. 24 higher than MDT. MDT sitting at 52 right now! CXY 61. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Streak Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Gorgeous, sunny, 63 right now with a light breeze. Was 56 and quite a bit more windy when we first went outside around 12:25, so it feels like a massive increase in temperature over the past 35 minutes or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philliesmd Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 68 and taking a break from mulching leaves with the mower 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 still 52 here local forecast model showed maybe 65 but then the weather guy said nah thats to low im going for 74 lol. his own model says one thing he over rides it when it suits him. but 52 almost 130 we would need 20 degree warm up in 4 hours or less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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