Bubbler86 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 52 still here. Here is a close to forum wide view of the current temps from Wunderground reporters 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Clearfield has a wind advisory for Thursday/Friday but not the LSV, even though winds look identical. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Just now, canderson said: Clearfield has a wind advisory for Thursday/Friday but not the LSV, even though winds look identical. Weird. It is sort of like when the first freeze happens, they stop freeze warnings...they know you are fully aware of the wind coming and see no need to warn you over it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 For those that are big NWS zone fans, MDT now has snow and FRZ in their Sunday zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Bugs are out today. Saw a ton on my walk along the river and at the house. 56 was my high. Probably start seeing mosquitoes next week with the warmth. I miss real winters but they might never coming back during our lifetimes … 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 42 minutes ago, canderson said: Bugs are out today. Saw a ton on my walk along the river and at the house. 56 was my high. Probably start seeing mosquitoes next week with the warmth. I miss real winters but they might never coming back during our lifetimes … I miss them as well this is BS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 3 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: For those that are big NWS zone fans, MDT now has snow and FRZ in their Sunday zone. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this weekend storm trend a little further north over the next few days to get at least the LSV involved in some Winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 39 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I wouldn’t be surprised to see this weekend storm trend a little further north over the next few days to get at least the LSV involved in some Winter weather. I would be very surprised. To me the progressive pattern points to a system escaping out to sea. Let's be completely honest and argue that the system comes farther north...where is the cold source outside some super wound up low that pulls cold down from above? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 I would be very surprised. To me the progressive pattern points to a system escaping out to sea. Let's be completely honest and argue that the system comes farther north...where is the cold source outside some super wound up low that pulls cold down from above? 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 21 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I would be very surprised. To me the progressive pattern points to a system escaping out to sea. Let's be completely honest and argue that the system comes farther north...where is the cold source outside some super wound up low that pulls cold down from above? There certainly isn’t a cold front or a pressing High to push it to the south either. The better solutions that showed more snow in CTP on & off the last few days have featured a little more of a progressive system with a good upper low track under us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 Great post from pro Met. @wdrag in the NYC forum that I think could apply to us in Central PA. “fwiw... if the ULL tracks east, probably no go for us n of I80 but if the ULL tracks 1 or 2 degs further N, then I think the I84 corridor has a good chance of deformation zone snow (4") in n-nw edge of 7H LOW where FGEN-convergence occurs. I'll be watching trends in the modeled 7H-5H lows the next several days. In the meantime, 12z op model heights at 500MB are generally 30-60M higher than the 12z EC op. That makes a significant difference in ptype nw edge. Thermal profile are marginal but I'm pretty sure if models reverse the se trend in today's models, that we'll see a pretty decent amount of snow in the Pocs-I84 corridor. This still has a chance to edge a little further north than recently modeled. It's not an overwhelming amount of cooling in the column that is needed, in my opinion. It's latitude of the 7H-5H low that I think is important fgen significant snow N of I80.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 @MAG5035 Any current thoughts on the weekend storm potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 I wouldn’t be surprised to see this weekend storm trend a little further north over the next few days to get at least the LSV involved in some Winter weather.StopSent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 2 hours ago, canderson said: Bugs are out today. Saw a ton on my walk along the river and at the house. 56 was my high. Probably start seeing mosquitoes next week with the warmth. I miss real winters but they might never coming back during our lifetimes … In my time back since 2018, they really do not seem to go away very long. When it is cold they are not seen but within a day or two of a warm up, out they come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Could hit 60 tomorrow in some spots. Record high for Harrisburg tomorrow is 61 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 11 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Stop Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Why, it’s Wednesday & the storm isn’t getting to our region until Sunday. We have seen this scenario countless times over the years. The Euro ensemble at 6z today had 2-4 inches of snow across most of CTP. I will “stop” when it is crystal clear it’s not happening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 2 hours ago, canderson said: Bugs are out today. Saw a ton on my walk along the river and at the house. 56 was my high. Probably start seeing mosquitoes next week with the warmth. I miss real winters but they might never coming back during our lifetimes … Really? Do you plan on dying in 5 years. Just because the overall climate is warming doesn't mean we can't get what the west is getting. You guys all act like all the sudden winter is going to disappear for good. I'm sure you can look back in 1900s and find stretches of years without winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 In my time back since 2018, they really do not seem to go away very long. When it is cold they are not seen but within a day or two of a warm up, out they come.Saw a honeybee today and smelled the ramps coming up in the woods. By my estimation, we are a full month ahead of schedule, if not more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 11 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Really? Do you plan on dying in 5 years. Just because the overall climate is warming doesn't mean we can't get what the west is getting. You guys all act like all the sudden winter is going to disappear for good. I'm sure you can look back in 1900s and find stretches of years without winter. It is evident to me weather patterns have changed entirely and we aren’t going back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 Apologies for interrupting the “bugs” & “winter’s over forever” posts…. The 18z EPS says CTP & the LSV are very much in the game for the Sunday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 Here is the 18z EPS mean low position at the height of the storm for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 Here is the 18z EPS snow map. The best snow this run is in south central CTP, but it involves all of the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 The 18z EPS control run also gets it done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 43 minutes ago, anotherman said: Saw a honeybee today and smelled the ramps coming up in the woods. By my estimation, we are a full month ahead of schedule, if not more. Honeybees will come out from the hive during warm spells. They wer out in the beginning of January when it was warm. I have 1 hive of honeybees. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 41 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I would be very surprised. To me the progressive pattern points to a system escaping out to sea. Let's be completely honest and argue that the system comes farther north...where is the cold source outside some super wound up low that pulls cold down from above? I dunno if I’d call progressive directly the problem here. Certainly the northern branch is progressive but this potential event has trended away from a tailing wave running along a frontal boundary into a closed off upper low cut off from that flow. The former scenario was one that required perfect timing and the latter scenario (what guidance has been showing as of late) is one that needs a way to get some latitude. Gonna show 3 panels from the new 18z Euro ensemble mean. Initially, there’s a shortwave in the northern branch that passes Friday Night/Sat ahead of the closed low in the south and a positively tilted trough orientation. 60hr At 84 hours, the closed low is cut off from the northern branch but progressing along with the upstream shortwave diving into California pressing. The key to getting this up high enough to catch C-PA in my opinion is getting any kind of buckling upstream in the northern branch to draw the low up even just a tad. The Euro/EPS indicate a bit of digging with a NS shortwave in the north central at 102, where the GFS/GEFS doesn’t have much. Additionally, the GFS/GEFS is a bit faster progressing the closed low. The Euro being sharper with this feature is likely a big reason why it’s the most ambitious with affecting PA. So in terms of temps…. yea overall temp pattern is warm. With that progressive northern branch jet that high in latitude thanks to a currently +AO/NAO and +EPO, it really shouldn’t be much of a mystery why. What makes this a potential snow oasis in a sea of Pacific modified air is the closed upper low itself is fairly deep and would have a cold pool aloft sufficient for a snow column with good precip rates and probably some elevation as well. If the system comes north enough, this would likely be just an enough to be a snow event in the central counties, and might be more of an elevational deal in the Sus Valley with marginal low level/surface temps. That’s a big if, because I’m still not sure we can get much precip above the mason-Dixon. Want to see more model support for that obviously, but the latest Euro and ensembles were certainly at least mildly interesting. If it doesn’t get us it’s probably going to give WV, interior VA and perhaps even the higher western Carolinas a snow event, which I guess would be hilarious if one were into schadenfreude kind of humor. I guess Elliot technically still would be on track with his 70 is more likely than snow call lol. Although, he did acknowledge this event in a post just a bit ago at 8pm. Surprised no one brought that up. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 23 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: I dunno if I’d call progressive directly the problem here. Certainly the northern branch is progressive but this potential event has trended away from a tailing wave running along a frontal boundary into a closed off upper low cut off from that flow. The former scenario was one that required perfect timing and the latter scenario (what guidance has been showing as of late) is one that needs a way to get some latitude. Gonna show 3 panels from the new 18z Euro ensemble mean. Initially, there’s a shortwave in the northern branch that passes Friday Night/Sat ahead of the closed low in the south and a positively tilted trough orientation. 60hr At 84 hours, the closed low is cut off from the northern branch but progressing along with the upstream shortwave diving into California pressing. The key to getting this up high enough to catch C-PA in my opinion is getting any kind of buckling upstream in the northern branch to draw the low up even just a tad. The Euro/EPS indicate a bit of digging with a NS shortwave in the north central at 102, where the GFS/GEFS doesn’t have much. Additionally, the GFS/GEFS is a bit faster progressing the closed low. The Euro being sharper with this feature is likely a big reason why it’s the most ambitious with affecting PA. So in terms of temps…. yea overall temp pattern is warm. With that progressive northern branch jet that high in latitude thanks to a currently +AO/NAO and +EPO, it really shouldn’t be much of a mystery why. What makes this a potential snow oasis in a sea of Pacific modified air is the closed upper low itself is fairly deep and would have a cold pool aloft sufficient for a snow column with good precip rates and probably some elevation as well. If the system comes north enough, this would likely be just an enough to be a snow event in the central counties, and might be more of an elevational deal in the Sus Valley with marginal low level/surface temps. That’s a big if, because I’m still not sure we can get much precip above the mason-Dixon. Want to see more model support for that obviously, but the latest Euro and ensembles were certainly at least mildly interesting. If it doesn’t get us it’s probably going to give WV, interior VA and perhaps even the higher western Carolinas a snow event, which I guess would be hilarious if one were into schadenfreude kind of humor. I guess Elliot technically still would be on track with his 70 is more likely than snow call lol. Although, he did acknowledge this event in a post just a bit ago at 8pm. Surprised no one brought that up. Who is on the MU watch this evening? Mag showed that person up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Blizz love the passion for snow and me but I really think we are done. I want to be wrong and hope I’ll be. This winter sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: In my time back since 2018, they really do not seem to go away very long. When it is cold they are not seen but within a day or two of a warm up, out they come. Earwigs, worms, moths, slugs and many other insects have been out almost every night and day for the last 6 weeks. I have cole crops growing outside this winter and slugs have been a major problem the last few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, paweather said: Blizz love the passion for snow and me but I really think we are done. I want to be wrong and hope I’ll be. This winter sucks. I love the reverse psychology…. Lol, See you at 0z ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: I love the reverse psychology…. Lol, See you at 0z ! I’m trying! but nothing seems to work! Love it though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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