Central PA Winter 2022/2023

[paweather]

Can't even do a road trip for snow this year. 

[canderson]

4 minutes ago, paweather said:

Can't even do a road trip for snow this year. 

You can reach the Sierra Nevadas by car. Go through Texas and get real barbecue too - bonus! 

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, canderson said:

You can reach the Sierra Nevadas by car. 

And by train...t minus 97 days for me. Glad to see that my town had some "snow showers" over the weekend that dropped a fresh 18"...season total is now at 401". 

Current snow depth in Mammoth Lakes:

[MAG5035]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU's take: (first tweet from today, discussion was posted last evening) 

The chances for snow across southeastern PA are virtually "nil" for the foreseeable future. In fact, a 70-degree day has a better chance of occurring than accumulating snow. For an in-depth explanation as to why, read my latest SWD (written last evening):

https://www.millersville.edu/weathercenter/forecasts/weather-discussion.php

I said this back on January 15th, a long journey back to page 120 in this thread haha.

Quote

I do like the overall look of things as we get toward the end of the month into early February. Seeing the cold anomalies in Canada replacing the sea of red positives is a good start even though the press focuses west/central US initially. We did kind of just go through this in December, where we were initially targeting significant cold being here by mid month and we didn’t get it until after mid-month and the really cold stuff waited until 2 days before Christmas. We’re likely looking at the same kind of progression here if it does eventually get cold. 

 I think enough cold will eventually press our way but big question will be if we can knock back the SE ridge enough to finally get on the cold side of the storm track for a change. It doesn’t appear that way for the 19th storm (other than maybe brief interior ice in the beginning) and the next one around the 23rd or so is still debatable, although I continue to think that one has a better chance to at least have some kind of a mixing event up front if it cuts. Overall  we’re likely going to have to take a couple more lumps storm-wise the next 7 days or so. 

Other question is sustainability if we can get the cold period. MJO could be a factor in a bad way if it eventually propagates into the P4-6 realm (talking beyond 15days at this point for this). That was a big reason our Christmas week cold got cut short.  Models generally seem to want try to turn it back into the null phase before it goes from phase 3-4 for now but that evolution will need to be monitored. That’s likely to be a player on how mid-late February fares down the road

As it was, despite a wholly above average January, we did have a couple chances late month and the Jan 25th event. Only fitting of this winter that Millersville was a 1/10” stick slant away from keeping the 2/4/95 record in tact at that point, by the way. And then actual colder than normal took until last week to arrive, culminating in the brief but insane charge of arctic air into New England. 

The bolded portion was the big thing though. At the time, models didn’t loiter the MJO in phase 3 for 10+ days so it pushed the timeframe back some but while they were taking it back in the null phase you could see at that range a sustained/stronger MJO pulse could continue to progress into the 4-6 range. It also wasn’t much of a consensus til recently either (Euro continued to avoid the warm phases) but it seems like the NCEP guidance ended up being better with that particular forecast...being persistent in sustaining the MJO progression into warmer phases.

Here’s what it looks like today:

It’s brutal timing wise, right at the heart of our best snowstorm climo. And especially in a Nina but even non-Nina winters these phases correlate so strongly to eastern warmth. Somewhat good thing is that this and other guidance keep it moving and don’t stall it in any phase, eventually setting up for a run through the more favorable side…theoretically. I think after about the next 7-10 days we may have an idea of a direction we may take getting into late February and early March. My first thoughts are that there’s a decent chance that March may try to make some noise, perhaps even as early as late this month if we can quickly get out of these warm phases and try to reshuffle the pattern accordingly. That’s something we’re not going to decipher out of the D10-15 range of the op models today though with any certainty. So we’ll see…We’re having a remarkable stretch of this persistent southeast ridging, it’s gotta break down at some point. And March being a transition month seasonally (wavelength shortening) is a good time for that to happen. 

[canderson]

14 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I said this back on January 15th, a long journey back to page 120 in this thread haha.

As it was, despite a wholly above average January, we did have a couple chances late month and the Jan 25th event. Only fitting of this winter that Millersville was a 1/10” stick slant away from keeping the 2/4/95 record in tact at that point, by the way. And then actual colder than normal took until last week to arrive, culminating in the brief but insane charge of arctic air into New England. 

The bolded portion was the big thing though. At the time, models didn’t loiter the MJO in phase 3 for 10+ days so it pushed the timeframe back some but while they were taking it back in the null phase you could see at that range a sustained/stronger MJO pulse could continue to progress into the 4-6 range. It also wasn’t much of a consensus til recently either (Euro continued to avoid the warm phases) but it seems like the NCEP guidance ended up being better with that particular forecast...being persistent in sustaining the MJO progression into warmer phases.

Here’s what it looks like today:

It’s brutal timing wise, right at the heart of our best snowstorm climo. And especially in a Nina but even non-Nina winters these phases correlate so strongly to eastern warmth. Somewhat good thing is that this and other guidance keep it moving and don’t stall it in any phase, eventually setting up for a run through the more favorable side…theoretically. I think after about the next 7-10 days we may have an idea of a direction we may take getting into late February and early March. My first thoughts are that there’s a decent chance that March may try to make some noise, perhaps even as early as late this month if we can quickly get out of these warm phases and try to reshuffle the pattern accordingly. That’s something we’re not going to decipher out of the D10-15 range of the op models today though with any certainty. So we’ll see…We’re having a remarkable stretch of this persistent southeast ridging, it’s gotta break down at some point. And March being a transition month seasonally (wavelength shortening) is a good time for that to happen. 

Or it break downs in May and it's rainy and 50 on Memorial Day. 

[Bubbler86]

Hate me if you want....but...BANG!  Potential is there if that second wave does form. 

 

 

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Here is another look at the Happy Hour GFS for this weekend.

We are over due for something to trend right. 
Maybe we get lucky this weekend?

[Blizzard of 93]

The Euro, to a lesser degree, had weekend snow at 12z as well.

Previous occasional GFS, Canadian & Euro runs on Friday & Saturday looked good as well for this weekend.

Maybe it’s our time to score?

 

[Blizzard of 93]

7 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Nope, we're going to get an 11" snowfall in March that is obliterated when it's 67 the next day. 

That’s the spirit!

Hopefully in your scenario, the 11” of snow is topped by 1 inch of sleet/freezing rain in order to help retention and then it only gets to 47 the next day.

[Blizzard of 93]

4 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

I have to admit, I very much hope the HH GFS shows development at the end of the front as well....will be like throwing coal into the engines and starting the train up again.  Just the drama alone is worth watching. 

Well, the happy hour GFS produced the goods, so where is the old snow train?

[Blizzard of 93]

6 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Sure have. And just a few years ago we scored big time on the first day of Spring.

I ain't calling nothing over yet. 

Now you’re talking!

Hopefully we have a strong 4th quarter of Winter.

[Blizzard of 93]

3 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

I said this back on January 15th, a long journey back to page 120 in this thread haha.

As it was, despite a wholly above average January, we did have a couple chances late month and the Jan 25th event. Only fitting of this winter that Millersville was a 1/10” stick slant away from keeping the 2/4/95 record in tact at that point, by the way. And then actual colder than normal took until last week to arrive, culminating in the brief but insane charge of arctic air into New England. 

The bolded portion was the big thing though. At the time, models didn’t loiter the MJO in phase 3 for 10+ days so it pushed the timeframe back some but while they were taking it back in the null phase you could see at that range a sustained/stronger MJO pulse could continue to progress into the 4-6 range. It also wasn’t much of a consensus til recently either (Euro continued to avoid the warm phases) but it seems like the NCEP guidance ended up being better with that particular forecast...being persistent in sustaining the MJO progression into warmer phases.

Here’s what it looks like today:

It’s brutal timing wise, right at the heart of our best snowstorm climo. And especially in a Nina but even non-Nina winters these phases correlate so strongly to eastern warmth. Somewhat good thing is that this and other guidance keep it moving and don’t stall it in any phase, eventually setting up for a run through the more favorable side…theoretically. I think after about the next 7-10 days we may have an idea of a direction we may take getting into late February and early March. My first thoughts are that there’s a decent chance that March may try to make some noise, perhaps even as early as late this month if we can quickly get out of these warm phases and try to reshuffle the pattern accordingly. That’s something we’re not going to decipher out of the D10-15 range of the op models today though with any certainty. So we’ll see…We’re having a remarkable stretch of this persistent southeast ridging, it’s gotta break down at some point. And March being a transition month seasonally (wavelength shortening) is a good time for that to happen. 

Great to see the MJO rocketing through the warm phases back towards phase 8 by the 20th. The Euro MJO posted below agrees with the GEFS that you posted as well.

Hopefully late February & March bring us a few weeks of solid Winter storm potential.

[paweather]

2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here is another look at the Happy Hour GFS for this weekend.

We are over due for something to trend right. 
Maybe we get lucky this weekend?

The eagles snowstorm Victory Blizz let’s do it! I’ll even cheer for the Eagles for this to happen. 

[Birdbean]

8 minutes ago, paweather said:

The eagles snowstorm Victory Blizz let’s do it! I’ll even cheer for the Eagles for this to happen. 

I thought maybe somebody did a deal where they traded an Eagles Super Bowl victory for a snowless winter?  

[Atomixwx]

Or it break downs in May and it's rainy and 50 on Memorial Day. 

Fuck off with your correctness

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

[mahantango#1]

18 this morning...totally unexpected.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 0z & 6z GFS did not back down on the Winter storm potential this weekend. Both runs have snow in the LSV, but the heaviest is to our south & east.

The 0z Euro was a whiff because the storm didn’t get its act together & has some light rain as the low scoots out to sea.

Still 5 days to watch this to see if we get lucky in a bad overall pattern.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Hit 21 on the car thermo through the low-lying rural spots. 

[Bubbler86]

Super frosty 22 this AM.  The cold front did its deed.  Any plans of grass growing are done for a while due to the frostiest morning of the season so far.     The GFS modeled snowstorm is about 24 hours later than modeled yesterday. 

[MAG5035]

22ºF currently. Nice sunrise this morning, only thing missing is the deep snowpack of course.

 

[Bubbler86]

The scattered, cold rain tonight could be one of those times the "Bridge may ice faster than a road" like signs applies to some normally colder areas.

[ChescoWx]

A mild week continues for Chester County with a chance of some showers overnight tonight. Temps should warm into the 50's Wednesday through Friday. There is a chance we could see some freezing rain across some of the far northern areas of Chesco into Berks and Lehigh counties if the rain arrives before rush hour. Colder air will follow for the weekend and we will track a developing coastal storm that could track close enough to give us snow later Sunday toward evening. Only the GFS American model currently shows significant snow with that model printing out over a foot of snow across Chester County. That said based on our seasonal trends this winter I suspect it will likely track off the coast to our south.

Records for today: High 61.3 (2008) / Low 2 below zero (1948) / Precipitation 1.94" (1965) / Record Snow 14.8" (1951)

[Blizzard of 93]

53 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Super frosty 22 this AM.  The cold front did its deed.  Any plans of grass growing are done for a while due to the frostiest morning of the season so far.     The GFS modeled snowstorm is about 24 hours later than modeled yesterday. 

23 & frost here as well.

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Hit 21 on the car thermo through the low-lying rural spots. 

 

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Super frosty 22 this AM.  The cold front did its deed.  Any plans of grass growing are done for a while due to the frostiest morning of the season so far.     The GFS modeled snowstorm is about 24 hours later than modeled yesterday. 

Only got down to 24 in the historic district, but the frost was some of the heaviest of the season. 

It's a legendary winter when during February we're discussing the amount of frost in the morning. 

[CarlislePaWx]

19.4 for my low this morning, along with frost.  I've had quite a few mornings this winter with heavy frost so this didn't seem much different.

[anotherman]

Got down to 19 in Mount Joy.  22 in York.

[Bubbler86]

8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

Only got down to 24 in the historic district, but the frost was some of the heaviest of the season. 

It's a legendary winter when during February we're discussing the amount of frost in the morning. 

I had not had much frost this year and still had summer weeds growing despite the Christmas cold.  This will put a kibosh on them.  It is still only 29 here so not getting into the 50's here today. 

[Itstrainingtime]

13 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Got down to 19 in Mount Joy.  22 in York.

Impressive that it was 5 degrees colder right down the road from me. Where is MJ's temp recorded? 

[Itstrainingtime]

11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I had not had much frost this year and still had summer weeds growing despite the Christmas cold.  This will put a kibosh on them.  It is still only 29 here so not getting into the 50's here today. 

I was out checking all of the daffodils that have been growing - hard to tell if and to what degree they were affected overnight. 

31 here currently. 

[Bubbler86]

22 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I was out checking all of the daffodils that have been growing - hard to tell if and to what degree they were affected overnight. 

31 here currently. 

A bit of a pivot here but what looked like a week of 50's is starting to back pedal a bit.  Most models now only get MDT over 50 Thursday night and maybe Friday depending on front timing.