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Central PA Winter 2022/2023


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26 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

A rumor surfacing that the GFS was adding in the effects of the Chinese Spy Balloon, and eventual rocket propelled missile that will take it down, into its panels. 

Man you beat me to it, I was getting ready to post that the play by play crew didn’t mention the models were incorporating special obs data that I’m sure it’s providing haha. 

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The suspected Chinese high-altitude surveillance balloon flying over the continental US entered the US airspace “due to force majeure,” a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said on Friday, confirming the airship was from China.

“It is a civilian airship used for research, mainly meteorological, purposes. Affected by the Westerlies and with limited self-steering capability, the airship deviated far from its planned course. The Chinese side regrets the unintended entry of the airship into US airspace due to force majeure,” the spokesperson said in a statement.

“The Chinese side will continue communicating with the US side and properly handle this unexpected situation caused by force majeure,” the statement added.

 

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5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Man you beat me to it, I was getting ready to post that the play by play crew didn’t mention the models were incorporating special obs data that I’m sure it’s providing haha. 

 

Ha, your joke/thought was better than mine.   The GFS was secretly getting atmospheric data from the balloon to better its accuracy, nice! 

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16 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Lots of time to sort out details with track, precip type & timing, but hopefully we get a favorable trend this time when we get to 5 days out and under.

Maybe February will deliver, one thing I noticed is this is the first month since November we didn't start out above normal with rain. So maybe the pattern is changing...somewhat.

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Regarding the Feb 11-12 potential event, ensemble support for the GFS op isn’t there currently on the GEFS.. neither on 12z or the new 18z. Seems like the ensemble mean is more supportive of the Canadian type solution which had one system and no follow-up. 12z Euro EPS did have some signal for a follow up wave. 

542702677_GEFSENS318z.thumb.png.7cda68c738a74298b4624c216c223638.png

The follow-up wave scenario behind the likely rain event a couple days prior is probably about the only option to score in the pattern we’re going to be going into thru at least mid-month. Most guidance is putting the MJO into the warm phases in this timeframe. With that in mind, pattern is likely to continue to ensure that cold intrusions behind systems are fairly brief. So windows to line something up are smaller. 

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11 minutes ago, canderson said:

Yup just had a 43 gust. Been windier today than in a while. CTP has really downloaded the wind in its discussions too.  

Been pretty breezy here too, especially late afternoon. I had a max gust of 48 mph for the day just after 4pm this afternoon and a couple other 35-40mph type gusts here and there. Temp/Dew is down to 10.8ºF/-4.6ºF now. 

Speaking of shingle shredding winds, the obs up on Mount Washington observatory are insane this eve… as is their weather discussion. -45ºF with winds of 90 mph, G to 106 currently. Good for a minus 105ºF wind chill with the sustained wind. 

Their discussion:

Quote

CURRENT SUMMIT FORECAST

The exceptionally cold arctic air mass that we have been tracking on the summit for the last few days has come to fruition. We have already re-set our daily record low on the summit (originally -32F set in 1963) and continue to be tracking towards our monthly (-46F set in 1943) and all-time (-47F set on January of 1934) station records, and even possibly the New Hampshire state record low of -50F which was set on January 22, 1885 at Mount Washington. Not only will the air temperatures be nearly unprecedented, but they will be accompanied by very strong/considerable winds, which may cause wind chills to plunge below 100 degrees below zero. Needless to say, such conditions will pose a great risk to anyone that plans on venturing to the higher summits. With such extreme conditions expected, a wind chill warning will remain in effect through noon on Sunday.

Temperatures continue to fall this afternoon, though not quite as dramatically as this morning, following the passage of the arctic cold front early this morning. They will continue to fall overnight, likely bottoming out within a few hours of midnight tonight. Model guidance has remained steady is calling for a low temperature at or slightly above -50F. At the same time, sustained winds are expected to increase from 105-115 mph to about 120-130 mph. The peak of the winds will possibly coincide with, or immediately follow the timing of the coldest temperatures, producing wind chills potentially down to -110F. As noted in previous higher summits forecast discussions, it is now expected that a tropopause fold will pass nearly over the summit before midnight tonight. The position of the inversion over the summit may further enhance winds over the summit, with possible gusts up to 150 mph. These wind chills, if they verify, would unofficially set the record for the coldest wind chills ever observed within the United States, which is currently -105F held by Howard Pass, Alaska

 

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"Needless to say, such conditions [at Mount Washington] will pose a great risk to anyone that plans on venturing to the higher summits."

Let me get this straight: They do not close down up there when things get this bad? That is the impression this gives me. Isn't allowing Joe Public to go anywhere they want, any time they want up there giving a license to the idiots of America to be as idiotic as possible? Why do that? 

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