pasnownut Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said: Nws wants nothing to do with snow at least in the lower Susquehanna. at this juncture, still enough uncertainty down here that I can understand that. Wow, I actually sound like I'm defending them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Just now, pasnownut said: at this juncture, still enough uncertainty down here that I can understand that. Wow, I actually sound like I'm defending them... I understand words can play a big part in peoples decisions based on a forecast. I don't know if I would wanna be a forecaster and issue a forecast. I'd get ridiculed either way on how or how not the forecast turned out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 5 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: I understand words can play a big part in peoples decisions based on a forecast. I don't know if I would wanna be a forecaster and issue a forecast. I'd get ridiculed either way on how or how not the forecast turned out. It's not just the NWS either - I've yet to see or hear a forecast for Lanco that even mentions snow for the Sunday event. I see nothing but rain with temps in the low 40s during the day dropping to the mid 30s Sunday night. I would guess that today would be the day that changes in the forecast might happen? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Unfortunate overnight runs last night. Still think areas like Harrisburg west can see 2-4" (maybe more) with the Monday system. Here at Millersville, we are nearly +11 for the month through day 18 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: It's not just the NWS either - I've yet to see or hear a forecast for Lanco that even mentions snow for the Sunday event. I see nothing but rain with temps in the low 40s during the day dropping to the mid 30s Sunday night. I would guess that today would be the day that changes in the forecast might happen? Maybe we could be in for a surprise, but given the trend this winter idk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: It's not just the NWS either - I've yet to see or hear a forecast for Lanco that even mentions snow for the Sunday event. I see nothing but rain with temps in the low 40s during the day dropping to the mid 30s Sunday night. I would guess that today would be the day that changes in the forecast might happen? I agree. No need to change until there appears to be a legitimate chance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 1 hour ago, Ruin said: well its not like im wrong about that. even inside 24 hours ive been in a blizzard warning to nothing lol. I just dunno how when I was younger it felt like they were more accurate Noone is saying youre wrong, but coming into a weather disco thread and offering nothing but complaints wont win anyone over...cause most of us already know, understand and accept the frustrations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 15 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: I understand words can play a big part in peoples decisions based on a forecast. I don't know if I would wanna be a forecaster and issue a forecast. I'd get ridiculed either way on how or how not the forecast turned out. as you know all too well, down here in the LSV is often riding the line..... No matter if I like what they say or not, forecasters for our area earn their stripes. there i go again....defending them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Looking at the setup on the 6z NAM thermal profiles coupled w/ slp track/placement, I'm gonna hedge a bet and say its coming out swinging as it leads off the nooners. But thats extrapolating..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 38 with light rain. Doubt it will get much above 40 today - raw outside for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 38 with light rain. Doubt it will get much above 40 today - raw outside for sure. Ditto 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 36 and it's pouring. I don't think I've ever been so depressed about weather. If it's going to rain, can it at least be 50 degrees? And if it's not going to snow and be cold, can it at least be dry? If it's not going to snow, can it at least be warm? This being in Purgatory is actually being in Hell. I'm teetering on being ready for spring. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 It warmed up this morning,our ice threat appears to be over. Just a rainy day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 I figured out why it won't snow back there. You guys are posting so much that you're warming the low and mid level layers... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 4 minutes ago, Voyager said: I figured out why it won't snow back there. You guys are posting so much that you're warming the low and mid level layers... That is the fault of the engineering team for the different weather bureaus...running their models 4X a time (or 24X in the case of some!). That is one big pic of Brett Maher! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 10 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: 36 and it's pouring. I don't think I've ever been so depressed about weather. If it's going to rain, can it at least be 50 degrees? And if it's not going to snow and be cold, can it at least be dry? If it's not going to snow, can it at least be warm? This being in Purgatory is actually being in Hell. I'm teetering on being ready for spring. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk It kind of hit me this morning walking across campus while getting soaked - I'm at 1.25" of snow for the season on 1/19. The first 1" of that fell and then melted all while I was at work one day. Bottom line, I haven't seen anything beyond a heavy dusting for the season. The upcoming week or 2 holds some promise...but for us in Lanco especially, it's been really bad. If you remove the few bitter days around Christmas it's really been an extended fall that hasn't ended. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Hard to believe that this thread is actually one of the most optimistic ones around right now. The overall mood in other regions is glum. And that's putting it nicely. We need a Miller A to swing up out of the Gulf and lay down a long stripe of white gold for the entire east coast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Hard to believe that this thread is actually one of the most optimistic ones around right now. The overall mood in other regions is glum. And that's putting it nicely. We need a Miller A to swing up out of the Gulf and lay down a long stripe of white gold for the entire east coast. The Phl and Pitt threads are really down....and some in MA are shitting the blinds. I am frankly a bit surprised at it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 26 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: 36 and it's pouring. I don't think I've ever been so depressed about weather. If it's going to rain, can it at least be 50 degrees? And if it's not going to snow and be cold, can it at least be dry? If it's not going to snow, can it at least be warm? This being in Purgatory is actually being in Hell. I'm teetering on being ready for spring. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Sure has been rough sledding. You've had a couple bouts w/ winter up/over that way though. I know compared to normal the suckfactor is high though. My family has yet to see a flake this year..... well, there's one that lives w/ them, but that doesnt really count. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The Phl and Pitt threads are really down....and some in MA are shitting the blinds. I am frankly a bit surprised at it. Yeah I try to be optimistic in our thread but it's been a rough winter so far. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The Phl and Pitt threads are really down....and some in MA are shitting the blinds. I am frankly a bit surprised at it. I think for the mid Atlantic its very DC centric. And it's still not looking great for the next 10 days + for DC proper . North of thr M/D line things look a little more optimistic. Realistically DC may not have a shot at anything Till the end of January or 1st week of February and after that it appears thr SER rears its ugly head. I think PA may make out pretty well the next 2- 3 weeks but DC meh. There's definitely a legit chance at DC getting completely skunked this season. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: I think for the mid Atlantic its very DC centric. And it's still not looking great for the next 10 days + for DC proper . North of thr M/D line things look a little more optimistic. Realistically DC may not have a shot at anything Till the end of January or 1st week of February and after that it appears thr SER rears its ugly head. I think PA may make out pretty well the next 2- 3 weeks but DC meh. There's definitely a legit chance at DC getting completely skunked this season. Yea, each board has their own climates. Things were just a bit more optimistic yesterday in the 3 boards I mentioned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 40 and rain here. I remain optimistic. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I think for the mid Atlantic its very DC centric. And it's still not looking great for the next 10 days + for DC proper . North of thr M/D line things look a little more optimistic. Realistically DC may not have a shot at anything Till the end of January or 1st week of February and after that it appears thr SER rears its ugly head. I think PA may make out pretty well the next 2- 3 weeks but DC meh. There's definitely a legit chance at DC getting completely skunked this season. Ehh you guys probably will be fine since CAD usually wins but if there is a sign of any WAA at all then the warm air surge is usually stronger than modeled. Can't win against the WTOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I think for the mid Atlantic its very DC centric. And it's still not looking great for the next 10 days + for DC proper . North of thr M/D line things look a little more optimistic. Realistically DC may not have a shot at anything Till the end of January or 1st week of February and after that it appears thr SER rears its ugly head. I think PA may make out pretty well the next 2- 3 weeks but DC meh. There's definitely a legit chance at DC getting completely skunked this season. It looms close on LR guidance. Gotta hope the NAO holds tight but tellies dont look so hot (or do they) once we turn the calendar. Time for that to change, but this looks like a window of opp that we need to cash one or 2 in on. Sorry for you guys down south of the M/D line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, each board has their own climates. Things were just a bit more optimistic yesterday in the 3 boards I mentioned. Alot of posters unfortunately live and die by each OP run lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Ehh you guys probably will be fine since CAD usually wins but if there is a sign of any WAA at all then the warm air surge is usually stronger than modeled. Can't win against the WTOD. CAD is not so great when there is not much cold air to our North and East. It is something for sure but less room for error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Just now, Chris78 said: Alot of posters unfortunately live and die by each OP run lol. That is the hobby part of it. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windycutter Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 17 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The Phl and Pitt threads are really down....and some in MA are shitting the blinds. I am frankly a bit surprised at it. The problem in SW PA (Pitt area) is the primary. Every time one tracks toward our are, WAA wins out with cold rain. CAD to our east allows for central to some of southeastern Pa to receive more frozen. If you look at snow maps, you will notice a small portion of SW PA with very little in the form of snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: CAD is not so great when there is not much cold air to our North and East. it is something for sure but less room for error. Lack of cold air has been a killer this year. For you and me we may be able to get some slop over the next 7 days or so but it still doesn't look great. If I was farther up 81 into PA I'd be feeling alot better for the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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