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December 2022


dmillz25
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Tomorrow will be another cool but dry day. A powerful storm could bring heavy rain, high winds, and coastal flooding to the region late next week. A light snow accumulation remains possible at the onset of the storm and as it moves away from the region. Once that storm passes, the season's coldest air so far will pour into the region. Temperatures could tumble into the teens in New York City.

The AO fell reached -4.000 on December 10th. Since 1950, there were 11 cases that saw the AO reach -4.000 or below during December. Mean snowfall for those cases was 9.0" (Median: 9.1"). 64% of such cases saw 6" or more of snowfall in December while 45% of such cases saw 10.0" or more snow. In contrast, during all other December cases, mean December snowfall was 3.5" (Median: 2.5"). 91% of those cases also saw a colder than normal December in the northern Middle Atlantic region. In terms of seasonal snowfall, 64% of those seasons saw 30" or more snowfall in New York City with 45% having 40" or more. Just 18% of such cases had less than 20" seasonal snowfall, both of which had less than 10" for the December-January period.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around December 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter.

The SOI was +21.23 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.548 today.

On December 15 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.606 (RMM). The December 14-adjusted amplitude was 0.655 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.7° (1.4° below normal).

 

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7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nothing else to track man

Pretty boring 

We still have two solid months of winter, and who knows what March can bring.

I think the expectations for December are always too high.  It just isn't an ideal month for snow like it used to be.  So far I have about 3 inches for the month, all of which has been washed away.

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Not going to post the graphics and may be meaningless??? but the 18z EC is 2C colder at 850MB IN NC at 90hrs than the prior 12z at 96 hrs.  More cold air aloft to get rid of.  I'd love to extrapolate but this can be a rabbit hole and useless. I do like that 12-18z EC trend, especially since it's 12z was implying a decent amount 850 MB se flow WAA Thursday.

I won't see new model guidance til 6A..hopefully sleeping in. I

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Hi!  I just saw the D10 comparison.  Both 240's look similar to me... all you have to do is raise height a little on the GEFS to show the positive anomaly but 500 pattern looks similar to me.  
Regarding the upcoming:  I am hoping my scenario below works out.
Thinking we are going to see two upper lows come Friday the 23rd...one Great Lakes and one crossing PA/NJ before they merge north of us in Canada on the 24th. Some of the modeling may be putting too much stock on the lead short wave developing the midwest low.   
Expecting just like this last one... an upper low developing on the eastern flank of the 500 trough.  Added this mornings analysis as an example of evolution except this one further south by 1-3 degxrees latitude.  Suspect, the upcoming system is going to dig more than that of the 15th-16th. That doesn't mean Long Island will see much if any snow but it does allow for further east wintry weather just inland.  
I will be looking for future 12/18-19 cycles of the EPS and GEPS to start losing the intensity of the upper low attempting to bodily develop in the Ohio Valley--instead permit an eastward extension.  
IF all the marbles have been properly placed on big UA low in the Upper Ohio Valley Great Lakes, then I'll have to admit being wrong.  All I know is we're still 5-6 days away and something will probably change in the lat-lon of the developing upper lows. 
I'll check back tomorrow.
Raw verification for the elevation based wet snow of 12/16-17 is in the 12/16-17 thread.
added the 12z/17 analysis at 658P that helped support secondary development 
877352839_ScreenShot2022-12-17at6_42_19PM.thumb.png.e4c466bacecc60eee9e758a51344d374.png

By the way, I want to make sure to compliment you on this writeup. This was very easy for the feeble-minded such as myself to understand, while still being thorough.

Whether or not it tells me a forecast I do or don’t prefer, how we get there was still laid out logically. Thank you!


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15 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Interesting stats.  Courtesy Dr. Ryan Maue.  I remember December 1989 vividly.  Also remember what followed for the rest of the winter.  Ugh.  December 23, 1989 had heavy snows coastal SC/NC followed by bitter cold.  Was an amazing Arctic discharge.

1.jpg

2.jpg

3.jpg

The one thing I forgot about that winter until looking it up a few years ago was that there was a single digit low reading on February 26, 1990 in the Park. Of all the winters since, there has been only one other winter with a later single digit low in the Park: February 28, 2014.

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Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

It came a little east but still not close for our region. 

You have to look at the H5 evolution rather than the Surface. At H5, there is a very large difference. If these changes continue, the Surface will look much different. 

Time will tell, but there are huge differences this run. 

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