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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Your hesitation into buying in of the Goldilocks pattern ends up being correct. Meanwhile, the rest of us were giving nude high fives 

It sucks. I was so hoping I was wrong. Would have been nice to actually have winter in Dec and Jan. I always think back to past experiences in weather. Anything long range is utterly unpredictable and if there’s any delay.. it never , ever ends well 

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5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Thanks for that post will .

Are you concerned that temps have been steadily moderating as forecasts get near 10 days , meaning any continuation of moderating shifts would make this less favorable for inland areas , or no more than normal 

I wouldn’t be that worried over the interior outside of typical normal storm track worries. There will be enough cold around on favorable storm tracks.  Immediate coast will have more issues. 

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As I have said for the past month, ensembles have extremely low skill past 10 days and should not be used to forecast.  The current pattern makes it even more difficult to use them.

Look at the EPS forecast from 0z for +84:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/eps/2022120500/eps_z500a_namer_15.png

Compared to the EPS forecast for the same period but + 192 + 252

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/eps/2022113012/eps_z500a_namer_33.png

+ 252

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/eps/2022112800/eps_z500a_namer_43.png

The PV is not caught under the block as forecasted but instead is heading into BC with a much stronger -PNA.  Also the ridging is connected from the SE into Greenland resulting in a warm cutter pattern.  Exactly as I warned a few weeks ago, you need the pattern shifts to move forward in time and just because the NAO is negative, doesn't mean much if a pacific airmass is trapped under the block, even for NNE.

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13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I really like the EPS for New England. Maybe not as great south of here. I don’t really have a reason to poo-poo the below patterns…lack of arctic cold might be a worry in very coastal exposed spots like the Cape and south coast. 
 

 

8FBEC7B1-F4A4-496C-A771-61486C2F37F0.png

8C22AEBC-1123-4644-BB09-5CA1DFFB8BE0.png

930792DB-3FCC-4FAF-8AE6-0B97A11715BE.png

This is how I feel about most of December...mid Atlantic waits until after NY IMO.

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15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When the Mets mainly disappear and don’t address how bad things turned .. it tells me all I need to know unfortunately 

Ya know Kev .. in all fairness... No one has the answers. As far as a pattern change.. the general consensus was a change Mid month ( around the 14th-16th time frame ).

Now there are moments where it look like it might be earlier , but that time frame is pretty much been with the thought process was. Don't give up your faith, you've been doing this like we have for a long time. , So things will change, and so are your mood. ;-)

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21 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Bob Cox on WTIC has no passion for the most part.  Even when something looks significant(which is nothing currently), he is very reserved and monotone most all the time. I was a WTIC listener and liked it since I was a small child..Bob Steele and company back in the day were just fabulous. I’ve kind of strayed away the past year some what. 

Oh I agree. When they lost Joe Furey the personality and more detailed forecast info dissapeared for sure. Not that I use radio for weather, but it was a nice perspective that's now gone. The new morning show UGH... the producer is better than the newer host.

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Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

Ya know Kev .. in all fairness... No one has the answers. As far as a pattern change.. the general consensus was a change Mid month ( around the 14th-16th time frame ).

Now there are moments where it look like it might be earlier , but that time frame is pretty much been with the thought process was. Don't give up your faith, you've been doing this like we have for a long time. , So things will change, and so are your mood. ;-)

And there is a change....we go from nothing happening to a pattern that favors the interior and higher elevation.

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14 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

13th is 8 days out. The pattern keeps on pushing back. That’s uninspiring… 

What is uninspiring is the selective reading comprehension....I feel like it was always stressed how the first several days of the pattern change was tenuous for a lot of areas, and now that it isn't going to work out for said areas, fingers point.

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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We all knew the first week or so was tenuous at best, especially south, but I mean, most ensemble guidance doesn’t have much to write home about as we approach the week leading up to Christmas. 
 

Again, this hasn’t gone as modeled the last week to 10 days. That’s fair to point out 

....and I'm sure you could rest easy if we had a blizzard modeled at day 13....

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Glad you went "all in" then!

Lol....yeah, making ironclad proclamations is great for sales, but not so great in forecasting.

Same goes for those who are convinced we're screwed too. Seeing an awful lot of certainty in some posts while simultaneously complaining about the unreliability of model guidance.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Lol....yeah, making ironclad proclamations is great for sales, but not so great in forecasting.

Same goes for those who are convinced we're screwed too. Seeing an awful lot of certainty in some posts while simultaneously complaining about the unreliability of model guidance.

Usually when this place gets like this, its wise to just scale back engagement until a concrete threat materializes. 

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6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We all knew the first week or so was tenuous at best, especially south, but I mean, most ensemble guidance doesn’t have much to write home about as we approach the week leading up to Christmas. 
 

Again, this hasn’t gone as modeled the last week to 10 days. That’s fair to point out 

Yet others(it seems you’re in with them too)say that ensembles shouldn’t be used to forecast long range, but here you are saying Ensembles aren’t showing anything to write home about 2-3 weeks away. Talk about hypocrisy lol. 

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18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

And there is a change....we go from nothing happening to a pattern that favors the interior and higher elevation.

This is where the forum struggles as a whole, we just went through it in November.

Pattern change means the pattern changes from one thing to another.  But it doesn’t mean snow.  November went from all-time record warmth and heights to two weeks of below normal.  Big change but some struggled with it because a snow event didn’t happen.

Its obvious we are entering another pattern with stormy, deeper lows, big moisture chances and lows somewhere along the east coast instead of a parade of lows through the Lakes.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This is where the forum struggles as a whole, we just went through it in November.

Pattern change means the pattern changes from one thing to another.  But it doesn’t mean snow.  November went from all-time record warmth and heights to two weeks of below normal.  Big change but some struggled with it because a snow event didn’t happen.

Its obvious we are entering another pattern with stormy, deeper lows, big moisture chances and lows somewhere along the east coast instead of a parade of lows through the Lakes.

Nice post..agree 100%. 

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I don’t know… I think you folks need to focus on 13.14.15 

We have to adult and except. We have to except that’s all that there really is out there - right now - that’s realistically providing the best odds. I dunno, maybe you don’t believe it. Or maybe you don’t understand it. But those are the best dates right there.  

All the odds on the table and scaling your best odds are 13.14.15 and everything else is just some kind of rocking back-and-forth and sniffing armpit antics … darting bloodshot  eyes too and fro. Lol.

 

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I will admit that I was a little too quick to entertain the notion of a faster transition to a more favorable look than my original outlook implied. I do feel like I jumped the gun a bit on my update last week...but my overall ideas seem right on track and I am not concerned in the least.

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I will admit that I was a little too quick to entertain the notion of a faster transition to a more favorable look than my original outlook implied. I do feel like I jumped the gun a bit on my update last week...but my overall ideas seem right on track and I am not concerned in the least.

Yes you may have had a pretty excellent initial outlook but after sipping some board enthusiasm  per  model runs that transitioned things earlier I’m sure you altered that based on the info at hand . Now that info has gone back to support your initial ideas more . That is my take , wrong ? On the whole you were less enthusiastic about the 8-15’th period than many here were (and That simply is clear if anyone has the courage to read the first 5 pages of this thread .

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don’t know… I think you folks need to focus on 13.14.15 

We have to adult and except. We have to except that’s all that there really is out there - right now - that’s realistically providing the best odds. I dunno, maybe you don’t believe it. Or maybe you don’t understand it. But those are the best dates right there.  

All the odds on the table and scaling your best odds are 13.14.15 and everything else is just some kind of rocking back-and-forth and sniffing armpits antics … darting bloodshot  eyes too and fro. Lol.

 

I think most understand Tip..but if it’s not showing snow over most of SNE on modeling, the masses think there’s nothing there…even if it is 8-10 days from now.  

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7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I will admit that I was a little too quick to entertain the notion of a faster transition to a more favorable look than my original outlook implied. I do feel like I jumped the gun a bit on my update last week...but my overall ideas seem right on track and I am not concerned in the least.

Would you say or recommend or even maybe log off now and check back in late this weekend to see if anything might be showing up?

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