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Fall/Winter 22-23 General Observations


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  • 2 weeks later...

22 degrees this morning at the house with one of, if not the biggest frosts I’ve ever seen! No joke, there’s probably close to 1/4in of frost in spots.  I might add that since we’ve lived out here at the lake, fog is a lot more common. I think it contributes to the frost on these colder, calm nights. However, the lake also can moderate my temp a degree or two, especially when the winds stay up, as I’m on a ridge overlooking the lake. I almost never will be able to win in a marginal setup, unfortunately. Even in town, which is about 100ft higher than me, I’ve noticed will just about always have more snow than out here. It could be 32 even at the front of the neighborhood with snow and 33 and rain here. I guess the trade off is a beautiful view of the lake and mtns. 

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Here is the afternoon disco from Memphis(modeling trending colder there):

Current forecast remains on track for tonight as showers and
possible a few embedded storms move into the Mid South. We can
expect this rain to continue overnight and through most of the day
Sunday especially east of the Mississippi River. Drier conditions
can be expected late Sunday through most of Monday...then all eyes
go to Tuesday. Primary forecast concern becomes a multi- episodic
icing potential for late Monday night through Thursday. Guidance
still remains adamant that this will be a Freezing Rain/Sleet
event.Rain will develop Monday evening, in association with a low
amplitude shortwave passage, and aided by increasing PWAT values.
The big question in this event is where exactly does the freezing
line set up and how deep/shallow the cold air will be over the
region. Latest guidance has trended colder and further south with
the cold air and expanded the area of possible ice accumulations.
Guidance still has the most likely area of icing just along and
north of I-40, but Memphis metro needs to pay attention as the
guidance seems to be trending cooler further south. Right now the
probabilities of seeing a 0.10 inch of ice across a large portion
of the area is 30 to 60 percent Tuesday. It is too early to try
an pin down accumulations and locations as this is still very much
in flux being 3 to 4 days out, but ice accumulations up to a
quarter inch are possible in portions of the Mid South during the
Tuesday- Thursday timeframe. Please stay tuned to the changes in
the forecast going into next week.
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