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August 2022 General Discussion


Hoosier
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I feel like next week is the last best shot for the elusive 100 reading at ORD (would already pencil in Midway with north of 50% odds, lol).  August does not look particularly cool to me, but the window for that kind of thing is starting to close.

We are already going to be fighting climo as only 23% of Chicago's 100+ days have come in August/September, and the last one to occur in one of those months was back in 1991.

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Gonna channel my inner Alek and throw out a 5 day call.

For Wednesday, I'll go 97 at ORD and 99 at MDW.  Multi-model agreement on 850 mb temps around 23-24C with fairly good mixing, the precise details of which will matter.  Although I didn't bite yet, I still feel like there's a reasonable shot of triple digits at MDW.

What I would want to see to seriously entertain the idea of 100 at O'Hare would be a more solid indication of deep mixing or a trend toward slightly warmer 850 mb temps.  It's just not there, at least at this point.  As of now, would have to bet on it coming up short, much to my chagrin.

On another note, Thursday morning could be very warm barring any interference from convection/outflow from the north.

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The convective/fropa timing has sped up to the point where any additional quicker solution would have an impact on high temps around northeast IL on Wednesday.  It is already likely to have some effect on highs for areas just to the north/west.

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This morning's Euro removed ALL 90s from my forecast through ten days.  There are also now four rain chances over the next week with multiple fronts moving through.  100º is certainly out of the picture Wednesday because of an earlier frontal passage.  

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26 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah the Euro is doing pretty bad with temp forecasts.  GFS must be rubbing off on it lol.

After several heat waves of respectable intensity it's disappointing to not get a 100.  All in all looking like a forgettable summer with no 100 degree heat and pretty lame stormwise as well.  

Don't worry, winter will be rocking.

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3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Don't worry, winter will be rocking.

February 28th: After several cold waves of respectable intensity it's disappointing to not get to at least -15.  All in all looking like a forgettable winter with no real cold and pretty lame stormwise as well.  

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I was one of the lucky ones tonight.  Much of the area received nothing, but a cluster of strong storms moved through Cedar Rapids.  I got 1" of rain and a station only a mile south got 2".  It lasted quite a while and had constant lightning, but pretty quiet thunder.  Right after the back edge moved through I went outside just to check the gauge, but I was treated to one of the most amazing lightning displays I've ever seen, directly above.

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Some notable differences in model high temps on Wednesday.  I'd sell the low end of guidance (hello Euro) as warm temps aloft and a little bit of wind should allow for a pretty high launching pad in the morning... maybe even 80ish in the core of Chicago.  I don't really buy the idea of clouds/precip becoming a potential issue until beyond early afternoon at the earliest.

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Can always tell when you’re getting later in the summer, when you can smell the corn in the air. We actually lost power this morning from the early morning storms. It’s august folks, the apple orchard opened up here. Just unbelievable how fast time goes. 

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