August Discussion/Obs

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The worst is when he thinks I am playing meteorological psychologist by telling him how this will work out, and then I'm wrong. I know he wants to just crucify me when that happens. I'm definitely not trying to play that role...but I know it drives him nuts when someone like myself or Will talks to him about that stuff.  

Not synoptically, but the mesoscale stuff more....I was shocked you kept drinking "the band will get to you" kool aid last January....I was back fast sleep by noon.

I knew it was a lost cause.

[Ginx snewx]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's too quiet, it's almost eerie. Expect major cane soon, pattern kinda screaming for it. 

Pattern looks like crap for a cane though

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not synoptically, but the mesoscale stuff more....I was shocked you kept drinking "the band will get to you" kool aid last January....I was back fast sleep by noon.

I knew it was a lost cause.

Did I? I honestly don't recall.....probably drunk of deformation bands.    I think I thought it would maybe briefly back up and get to you. I do recall at one point it was flying west and the eastern edge got to about Marshfield/Duxbury. Maybe that's where my comment came from. Then it stalled.

[powderfreak]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not synoptically, but the mesoscale stuff more....I was shocked you kept drinking "the band will get to you" kool aid last January....I was back fast sleep by noon.

I knew it was a lost cause.

I don’t know your climo to like other areas of Essex County (are you Essex?) but the thing I remember most from my college girlfriend of 4 years was her parents place in Topsfield seemed to have 20-30 inchers growing on trees lol.  Like 2002-2006… I felt like they had several jackpots in coastal storms and I remember thinking the North Shore was “the spot” to be.

Every PNS had Essex County jacks.  Topsfield, Danvers, etc.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

I don’t know your climo to like other areas of Essex County (are you Essex?) but the thing I remember most from my college girlfriend of 4 years was her parents place in Topsfield seemed to have 20-30 inchers growing on trees lol.  Like 2002-2006… I felt like they had several jackpots in coastal storms and I remember thinking the North Shore was “the spot” to be.

Every PNS had Essex County jacks.  Topsfield, Danvers, etc.

Dec 2003 and Jan 2005 were great there. Also early Jan 2003 was another jack just inland from 95. That area is definitely a good spot with biggies. They can get some CF enhancement.

Danvers did well in the Jan blizz this year.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

43 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not at all.. but that’s how extended long term droughts happen in the northeast . Look at the 30’s and 60’s. 

Oh ok. It sounded like you’re going severe drought through winter. I know it hurts now but you’ll get right in the fall.

[Damage In Tolland]

24 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Oh ok. It sounded like you’re going severe drought through winter. I know it hurts now but you’ll get right in the fall.

Hopefully this ends.. but Ninas with Stout SE ridges like we have modeled this winter and -PNA don’t typically yield wet winters. 

[ORH_wxman]

51 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Lol. He comes back when the summer season begins to fade. Many do. 

I did take more time off this summer than usual though....I usually still consistently post in summer, but just a more infrequent rate. I basically went 2 months without posting at all, but it was good for me since work was getting a bit much during late spring/early summer and then we had a busy family vacation schedule mid-summer.

There really was nothing to post about either wx-wise most of this summer. I made some posts in the arctic sea ice thread occasionally but not in here.

With ENSO starting to become more defined, I started posting in the winter thread earlier this week.

 

But yeah, there was a time back on eastern when many of us would disappear almost the whole warm season.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hopefully this ends.. but Ninas with Stout SE ridges like we have midriff this winter and -PNA don’t typically yield wet winters. 

I’m not excited for winter either with a 3rd straight nina but I’ll let the experts talk me out of a ratter by Novie.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I did take more time off this summer than usual though....I usually still consistently post in summer, but just a more infrequent rate. I basically went 2 months without posting at all, but it was good for me since work was getting a bit much during late spring/early summer and then we had a busy family vacation schedule mid-summer.

There really was nothing to post about either wx-wise most of this summer. I made some posts in the arctic sea ice thread occasionally but not in here.

With ENSO starting to become more defined, I started posting in the winter thread earlier this week.

 

But yeah, there was a time back on eastern when many of us would disappear almost the whole warm season.

 

Nice dude. 
 

Yea. It’s been a very boring summer weather unless you enjoy shirtless Stein twitter posts. 
 

[WxWatcher007]

Hurricane Bob anniversary is today.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hurricane Bob anniversary is today.

Bob was a beast at my house in Ashaway, RI. 6 plus rain, gust to 86 on my station and the first and last tornado I have seen.  No power for 10 days 

[40/70 Benchmark]

48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Did I? I honestly don't recall.....probably drunk of deformation bands.    I think I thought it would maybe briefly back up and get to you. I do recall at one point it was flying west and the eastern edge got to about Marshfield/Duxbury. Maybe that's where my comment came from. Then it stalled.

I was just frustrated...obviously no one knows for sure and it's just an educated guess. Not your fault.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Bob was a beast at my house in Ashaway, RI. 6 plus rain, gust to 86 on my station and the first and last tornado I have seen.  No power for 10 days 

Pretty much a non event in my area...just gusty rain...it tracked too far east.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hurricane Bob anniversary is today.

I went down to our family’s place in North Falmouth the next day.  Our house was OK but what a disaster area the town was.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’m not excited for winter either with a 3rd straight nina but I’ll let the experts talk me out of a ratter by Novie.

Why would you assume a ratter when the past two didn't rat?

[40/70 Benchmark]

53 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I don’t know your climo to like other areas of Essex County (are you Essex?) but the thing I remember most from my college girlfriend of 4 years was her parents place in Topsfield seemed to have 20-30 inchers growing on trees lol.  Like 2002-2006… I felt like they had several jackpots in coastal storms and I remember thinking the North Shore was “the spot” to be.

Every PNS had Essex County jacks.  Topsfield, Danvers, etc.

The coast and ORH county are better for jackpots than my area of the interior coastal plane and MRV. The coast has a higher frequency of ratters than I do, though.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Why would you assume a ratter when the past two didn't rat?

30.25” last season kinda feels like a ratter. I don’t want a repeat.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

30.25” last season kinda feels like a ratter. I don’t want a repeat.

You average like 50", no?

I hear ya, subpar, but I wouldn't say ratter.

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pretty much a non event in my area...just gusty rain...it tracked too far east.

Would take a Cat 3 to affect you with any force, your winter SE winds are worse.

[Ginx snewx]

42 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’m not excited for winter either with a 3rd straight nina but I’ll let the experts talk me out of a ratter by Novie.

You look at the 3 rd year Nina’s? Or 3 rd year neutrals to cold closely, might change your mind.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Would take a Cat 3 to affect you with any force, your winter SE winds are worse.

No, Gloria was impressive here...just need it to track west.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You average like 50", no?

I hear ya, subpar, but I wouldn't say ratter.

Somewhere around 45-50” yea. Just felt rattish the way it evolved…so many penny events and then missing another hecs blizzard to the east. Just Feed my sleeping pills and nail my eyelids open at that point.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, Gloria was impressive here...just need it to track west.

Still meh on the scale inland, some trees down but dry.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Somewhere around 45-50” yea. Just felt rattish the way it evolved…so many penny events and then missing another hecs blizzard to the east. Just Feed my sleeping pills and nail my eyelids open at that point.

Last two 3rd year Ninas weren't that bad....2000-2001 (which was historic further north in the interior, but still good where you are) and '75-'76 (maybe near avg there, but pretty good further northeast).

[40/70 Benchmark]

It's all about track at this latitude...if it goes west of your longitude, then its just a drencher... that's why it irritates me when people see a storm molded to track over ACK and say it's a weenie solution....not to mention 9/10 times they will trend east up here. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Still meh on the scale inland, some trees down but dry.

I guess it's about expectations...I don't expect nor want to see hurricane Andrew up here. Widespread tree damage is enough.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Somewhere around 45-50” yea. Just felt rattish the way it evolved…so many penny events and then missing another hecs blizzard to the east. Just Feed my sleeping pills and nail my eyelids open at that point.

Trust me, I know...but as tired as I am of being Scott, Will and Steve's red headed step child, I can't call it a ratter.

[Cyclone-68]

Is it normal what’s going on in the desert southwest? Seems they’re getting deluged every day?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You look at the 3 rd year Nina’s? Or 3 rd year neutrals to cold closely, might change your mind.

I have not but I thought nina is projected to strengthen as we head into the season but as stated, I’ll let the experts do their thing. I’m just over nina and having to perfectly time northern stream dominated phase jobs…and would prefer to shuffle it up with a weak The nino instead. Ray says that’s coming winter 23/24.