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3 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Severe Thunderstorm Watch area wide excluding Eastern Long Island till 10PM.

WW0473 WOU

PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES                        :  20%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /EF2-EF5/ TORNADOES       :  05%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS              :  70%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS          :  20%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS              : <05%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES          : <05%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS :  80%

Excluding all of Suffolk County you mean

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8 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

2.60 inches total here in orient in the nws COOP gauge I measured before

Southhold finished with 3.33” and picked up 1.00” in 10 min. That may be the heaviest 10 minute total there since the station was set up a few years ago. 

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Just now, bluewave said:

Southhold finished with 3.33 and picked up 1.00 in 10 min. That may be the heaviest 10 minute total there since the station was set up a few years ago. 

My Davis Rain gauge had 11.08/hr rain rate at some points today.

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46 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Will be interesting to see some of totals come tomorrow morning.  Especially over parts of Sussex County NJ and NE NJ and parts of L.I.   There were parts of Sussex County that had 2-3" totals as of 8:00 this morning and from the looks of radar some of the same areas have been soaked a few times since then.  NE NJ and parts of L.I. have also been hit several times with torrential downpours.  Worst of it so far has gone around my location.  Had .44" period ending 8:00 this morning and another .60" since then.  That on top of the .25" Sunday morning.  Just enough but not too much.   All going to good use instead of rapid runoff.  Short soakings.

My rain gauge at my parents house in Lafayette had topped 3" by 1 pm.

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Still no rain…looks like a bust for areas south of nnj 

We'll have to see if the activity in southeast PA that's moving ENE makes it to our area. RGEM does have some heavy rain moving through this evening, but we shall see. Since I'm in the extreme northern corner of Middlesex county I was lucky to catch that downpour that moved into Union county. Dropped a quick quarter inch of rain. Hopefully other parts of Middlesex county will get some rain over the next few hours. As I type this I see a new downpour just popped up and is moving into the southwest part of the county. There will be some opportunities over the next few hours.

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1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

This is the driest in my parts since the mid 90s

It has been the worst I've seen in many years too. So dry that you could hear the crunching of the brown grass when walking out there. I did pick up a half inch of rain today, so we finally have a little moisture in the soil for a change here.

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47 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

 

This is criminal what is happening 

Things quickly go downhill north of 125 St. Travel by car or train is a mess. Anyone with a basement say a prayer for it.

Road closures and flooding/down trees on subway tracks. It's been dry as hell but a run of the mill t storm would of been fine.

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1 hour ago, TWCCraig said:

 

I'm sure the average precipitation on the north shore in July is way more than the average on the south shore, though that's just a guess based off years of watching the weather. Marine stabilization and sea breeze boundaries always keep the action to the north of us this time of year.

I have a Davis Vantage Vue station at Cherry Grove on Fire Island.  The total rain fall there today has been Zip… The variation in the rain fall totals across the island today has been interesting to say the least.

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7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Is going to just miss us but should hit allsnow

Yeah I just got a few gusts of wind from it, but it's too far to the south to give me any rain. Very close for our friend Allsnow. Hopefully he's catching the northern part of that downpour down there in Metuchen.

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Showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be heavy, will continue through at least the first half of tonight. Additional flooding is possible in parts of New Jersey and southeastern New York State.

Afterward, another spell of heat will develop. The potential exists for the longest heatwave so far this summer. The hottest temperatures will likely be west of New York City in adjacent New Jersey where temperatures could peak in the upper 90s and perhaps reach 100° at the height of the heatwave.

The temperature reached 99° at London's Heathrow Airport today and 101° at Standon Downham. Jersey reached 100° for the first time on record. The national UK record will likely be broken tomorrow. The possibility exists that the UK could see its first 40°C (104°F) temperature on record.

In France, Biscarosse reached a scorching 109°. Overall, 25 locations set new all-time high temperature records.

During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The latest guidance all indicates that July will wind up among the warmer than normal cases.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around July 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.60°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was -6.40.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.035 today.

On July 16 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.962 (RMM). The July 15-adjusted amplitude was 0.987 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.6° (2.1° above normal).

 

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