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July 2022 General Discussion


Hoosier
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51 minutes ago, Baum said:

should I water the flowers? Was hoping for a good soaking, but the board optimism seems to waning a bit.

Watered the lawn last night anticipating convection weakening as it arrives here today. Wondering if we miss tonight NE as LLJ points more to southern lower MI

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There's a soupy 84 degree dew point at Denison Iowa right now. I think it's tied for the highest (USA) dew point I've seen on a weather map, ever. Le Mars Iowa says dew point of 91 but I honestly believe this is an error. In fact, Le Mars 99/91 would result in a heat index of 149.9 if it were true.

Le Mars has had a really screwed up weather sensor with temp of 138, dew of 138, H.I. of 613.

 

lemars_iowa_heat_index.jpg

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NAM is really bullish on heat around Chicago tomorrow.  Obviously it's a very low confidence scenario though as would need to avoid convection/outflow.

Given it hasn’t handled activity today correctly, and odds are won’t tonight either, probably easily undercut whatever it shows around here.
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2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


Given it hasn’t handled activity today correctly, and odds are won’t tonight either, probably easily undercut whatever it shows around here.

Euro is pretty hot too.  How has it been handling today?

Personally, I'm going with 82-102 across the area for tomorrow.

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As expected tonight's activity missed well northeast.  SPC did a poor job yet again for the DVN area.  I guess it's just habit and tradition to look at their page everyday, but it's almost as useless as the Farmer's Almanac these days.  

MLI still with a 92 degree heat index at midnight.  If it weren't for the heavy rains today we may have had a shot at 100 tomorrow, but the wet soils may coc k block that potential.  Another 97-98 on the way, meh.

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2.3" rainfall last night. At one point we had a water main break on our street with no running water and power was out last night. Village workers were there in some nasty weather finishing the repair.

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Quote
Of potentially greater concern is the flash flood threat with
this activity. Lake augmented/enhanced front will likely become
NW/SE oriented from extreme northwest Indiana to north central
Illinois. The orientation of the boundary over northern Illinois
should become parallel with mean winds and expected storm motion
which raises concerns about a period of training convection before
cold pool development shoves the effective front farther south.
Given the PWATs over 2 inches and threat for at least temporarily
training convection, wouldn`t be hard to envision isolated
rainfall totals of 3-5" in less than 2 hours. The threat area
looks to be over areas that saw heavy rain Monday evening and over
the urban corridor that is more susceptible to flash flooding.
Still mulling it over, but may issue a small flash flood watch to
address this threat.

hot

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Low of 83 this morning in STL, which will probably hold through the rest of the day (1 am CDT).  This ties the daily record from 2012.

I looked at STL's F-6 from July 2012...can't believe how hot that month was there.  15 days of 100+, including a max/min of 108/86 on July 25th. Average high/low for the month was 98.6/77.5, about 8 degrees above normal.

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5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Hrrr initiates this afternoon over same areas that got it last night which fits

A very clear front lies from northeast Iowa to Chicago.  Models are pretty unanimously lighting up the front out ahead of the SD MCS this evening.  There should be some good rain totals in that corridor.  It looks like the back half of an MCS may sweep through my area more quickly, with much less rain in general.

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