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July 2022 General Discussion


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Can ya believe that the 4th of July is one week away?  

We have been talking a bit about how it's looking like more frequent rain chances than what has been observed in recent times.  But for a display of how that can go "wrong", take a look at the 6z GFS.  More rain chances, but essentially targeting a similar corridor with the better rains.   


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Latest MKX AFD...

(Issued 348 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022)

Saturday through Thursday:

As the holiday festivities ramp up through the weekend, Saturday is
looking similar to today as high pressure continues to build into
the Western Great Lakes Region with temps in the upper 70s to mid
80s and mostly dry conditions. However with the upper-level low
meandering across the Hudson Bay region to our north, the
deterministic models all prog a ripple of mid-level vorticity to
round the base of the trough and work across the region. Some hi-res
models indicate that this ripple could spur a few showers across
portions of east-central WI in the afternoon, but given the lack
of additional dynamical support and drier low-levels, any activity
looks to be on the lighter side. We will start to see some warmer
temps into Sunday as the high slides east and southerly flow
increases. There could be another shortwave trough rounding the
base of the main trough bringing another chance at some isolated
showers with a rumble of thunder or two. Overall, there is a
potential for some isolated showers and cannot rule out some
thunder on Saturday and Sunday, but confidence remains low and if
anything does end up developing, it does not look to be enough to
wash out any outdoor plans this weekend.

However we need to continue to keep an eye on Independence Day as
there continues to be a signal for more impactful shower and
thunderstorm activity as a potent mid-level shortwave trough
treks across the Central Plains into the area on Monday aligning
with low-level WAA and a surface warm front. Although uncertainty
remains at this time given the run to run variability and timing
differences, the GFS/ECMWF solutions are trending closer toward
each other compared to previous forecast. The main factor in this
setup will essentially fall on placement of the shortwave trough
and where the surface warm front set ups. If things end up
aligning over southern WI, then the general idea is for
afternoon/evening storms develop across northern IA/southern MN
and track eastward along the warm frontal boundary. Additionally
with GEFS/EPS members hinting of instability values approaching
1000 J/kg and deep layer shear trend on the higher side, cannot
rule out some increased thunderstorm activity. Nevertheless,
uncertainty remains, but it bears watching over the next few days.

Otherwise, an active weather pattern looks likely for the
remainder of next week as upper-level northwesterly flow sets up
over the regional as a ridge builds across the western CONUS.
This pattern will likely result in a series of shortwave troughs
overrunning the ridge and bring daily thunderstorm chances to
southern WI.


Sounds good to me.

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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Got a pretty decent drink earlier.


4 hours ago, sbnwx85 said:

Same here. Radar estimates between 0.6" and 0.8" in my neck of the woods. 

Another whiff here. The afternoon convection fired up one county north and then zipped to the northeast. It did push out a boundary though. The boundary moved about two counties south of me when it fired up for the evening convection. So still parched here. Maye tomorrow, or the next day, or the next....

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15 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

POP’s were only at 30-50% as of yesterday afternoon, so shouldn’t be surprising.

was moreso referring to how complicated and difficult it is to time these storm clusters even more than 6 -8 hrs out. And sure enough LOT alluded to it in this mornings AFD


looks like a busy next week from here so it'll be interesting to see how it pans out. Finally caved and rolled out the sprinkler yesterday in an effort to save the lawn.

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The Castro guy out of the LOT office is fantastic. Just trekked through some od the midwest AFD's regarding next week. Superb. Perhaps the best I've seen.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, Guest said:

The Castro guy out of the LOT office is fantastic. Just trekked through some od the midwest AFD's regarding next week. Superb. Perhaps the best I've seen.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

He really is great, and not just saying that because he posts here.  :P  The time and effort he puts into the AFDs speaks for itself and is always appreciated.

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