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This has been some of the strongest spring onshore flow influence that we have seen around here. Very sharp dividing line between west of Central Park and east. LGA still hasn’t had a 75° day yet. So it’s already the 5th latest. 74° is also the 3rd coldest high at LGA by May 6th on record.

 

First/Last Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
First
Value
Last
Value
Difference
1981 05-21 (1981) 76 09-27 (1981) 79 128
1984 05-19 (1984) 76 10-28 (1984) 80 161
1975 05-14 (1975) 75 11-04 (1975) 75 173
1988 05-13 (1988) 75 10-02 (1988) 79 141
1971 05-11 (1971) 80 11-02 (1971) 76 174
1940 05-07 (1940) 79 10-15 (1940) 77 160


 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Highest Max Temperature Jan 1 to May 6
Missing Count
1 1940-05-06 71 1
2 1984-05-06 73 0
- 1975-05-06 73 0
- 1971-05-06 73 0
3 2022-05-06 74 1
- 1988-05-06 74 0
- 1981-05-06 74 0
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15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This has been some of the strongest spring onshore flow influence that we have seen around here. Very sharp dividing line between west of Central Park and east. LGA still hasn’t had a 75° day yet. So it’s already the 5th latest. 74° is also the 3rd coldest high at LGA by May 6th on record.

 

First/Last Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
First
Value
Last
Value
Difference
1981 05-21 (1981) 76 09-27 (1981) 79 128
1984 05-19 (1984) 76 10-28 (1984) 80 161
1975 05-14 (1975) 75 11-04 (1975) 75 173
1988 05-13 (1988) 75 10-02 (1988) 79 141
1971 05-11 (1971) 80 11-02 (1971) 76 174
1940 05-07 (1940) 79 10-15 (1940) 77 160


 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Highest Max Temperature Jan 1 to May 6
Missing Count
1 1940-05-06 71 1
2 1984-05-06 73 0
- 1975-05-06 73 0
- 1971-05-06 73 0
3 2022-05-06 74 1
- 1988-05-06 74 0
- 1981-05-06 74 0

LGA has been really unlucky due to the NE breeze off the sound they sometimes get. It’s been above 75 IMBY several times now. 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It will be a battle of where the cutoff finally stalls out. The Euro keeps areas near the coast in an onshore flow. If the Euro is correct, then NYC and LGA may not be able to get their first 80° day yet. But we’ll have to wait for later model runs to see if the 80° over the top warmth to our NW can work down closer to NYC. We just need the Bermuda high to be a little stronger than the backdoor high to the north for the first 80° in NYC and LGA.


ECBD3C64-8B8A-43FC-81B5-9AD85AABFE41.thumb.png.c32c9eebc55febf7275b6620a50cccc9.png
 

7609F485-79B3-462D-B8F9-1C5D475DDD17.thumb.png.249fedd60251cc5ca1b53e74130426db.png

Might be like a wave crashing in from the NW. It'll definitely be enjoyable when it finally does get here. 

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10 hours ago, greenmtnwx said:

Surprised at your forecast a bit Don. Seems light on precip. Models indicate a widespread 1-3” of rain and we know how wet these recent storms the last few years can be. 

I had been including areas from Washington, DC to Albany. There is a general 2"-3" stripe with higher amounts that runs across much of PA eastward, including NYC and Newark. I should probably have been more precise.

 

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9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

warm summer...not not very hot?  Looks like the excessive rainfall will keep us from having  a very hot summer

 

There may be one or two episodes of high heat, but again, the long-duration of warmer than normal temperatures with high humidity/high dewpoints will probably define the summer.

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2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

There may be one or two episodes of high heat, but again, the long-duration of warmer than normal temperatures with high humidity/high dewpoints will probably define the summer.

The Euro tropical models are particularly wet along the coast which is concerning and matches the high dew type heat we'll experience.

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25 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

LGA has been really unlucky due to the NE breeze off the sound they sometimes get. It’s been above 75 IMBY several times now. 

Even JFK along the South Shore still hasn’t made it above 72° yet.

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Highest Max Temperature Jan 1 to May 6
Missing Count
1 2019-05-06 70 0
- 1975-05-06 70 0
- 1968-05-06 70 0
2 2014-05-06 71 0
- 1961-05-06 71 0
- 1954-05-06 71 1
3 2022-05-06 72 1
- 1971-05-06 72 0

 

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

The Euro tropical models are particularly wet along the coast which is concerning and matches the high dew type heat we'll experience.

The displaced north subtropical ridge also puts us at higher risk for tropical systems. A further south ridge allows them to recurve earlier. The ridge pointed north prevents that and causes more Henri/Isaias type tracks. 

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

It will be a battle of where the cutoff finally stalls out. The Euro keeps areas near the coast in an onshore flow. If the Euro is correct, then NYC and LGA may not be able to get their first 80° day yet. But we’ll have to wait for later model runs to see if the 80° over the top warmth to our NW can work down closer to NYC. We just need the Bermuda high to be a little stronger than the backdoor high to the north for the first 80° in NYC and LGA.


ECBD3C64-8B8A-43FC-81B5-9AD85AABFE41.thumb.png.c32c9eebc55febf7275b6620a50cccc9.png
 

7609F485-79B3-462D-B8F9-1C5D475DDD17.thumb.png.249fedd60251cc5ca1b53e74130426db.png

While 80+ would be nice, is not necessary - some sun and into the 70s for more than a day would be a welcome change. 

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Brick wall is in place. Not far north of here the dew points are around 30 and the confluence is pressing down. This would be a widespread 20” snowstorm like a 1/23/16 or PDII if it could’ve happened in February. Grrrrr 

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1 hour ago, psv88 said:

At least we are saving water as nobody has turned on their sprinklers yet...

actually could use the rain here have not had much since the mid April .75 we got.   Been nickel and dimes since then, it's just a bummer its on a weekend

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2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

actually could use the rain here have not had much since the mid April .75 we got.   Been nickel and dimes since then, it's just a bummer its on a weekend

Yeh I am with you.

Cool and dry and lots of sprinkler time without much success with the grass seed.

Glad mother nature is picking it up a bit

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2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

actually could use the rain here have not had much since the mid April .75 we got.   Been nickel and dimes since then, it's just a bummer its on a weekend

I was gonna say that when LB said excessive rain. The numbers prove that it has been dry but we've gotten enough moisture to keep the surface soft.

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Looks like someone drew the northern rainfall cutoff with a ruler. This is what happens with such an elongated record block over SE Canada.The line extends from south of Detroit due east into the Atlantic. So the cutoff gets stuck for days underneath.


0036A540-3F96-434F-BF6F-58376C05E57D.thumb.png.ab14ba3bf3c190258db40d48b7ec2e49.png

A1F29FD8-08BC-4C7F-92C2-147B383A70E5.png.5e748213ede9c328dc60b334e12e9ff7.png

 

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21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like someone drew the northern rainfall cutoff with a ruler. This is what happens with such an elongated record block over SE Canada.The line extends from south of Detroit due east into the Atlantic. So the cutoff gets stuck for days underneath.


0036A540-3F96-434F-BF6F-58376C05E57D.thumb.png.ab14ba3bf3c190258db40d48b7ec2e49.png

A1F29FD8-08BC-4C7F-92C2-147B383A70E5.png.5e748213ede9c328dc60b334e12e9ff7.png

 

Lucky us. Nothing like a jackpot in early May

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10 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Lucky us. Nothing like a jackpot in early May

Yup. Like you said I guess it saves on the water bill. You can see the rain get squashed down every time it tries to push N into CT. This is some tough confluence. It’s been a nice day north of I-90 and quite low dew point air. 

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A coastal storm will bring rain, gusty winds, and cool temperatures to the region into early Sunday. A general 1.50"-2.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts appears likely. The temperature could rise no higher than the lower 50s tomorrow. Sunday will still be unseasonably cool, but perhaps slightly milder.

Overall, the first 10 days of the month will probably feature a cool anomaly with temperatures averaging 2°-4° below normal. The second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around April 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +11.13 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.275 today.

On May 4 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.090 (RMM). The May 3-adjusted amplitude was 0.630 (RMM).

 

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9 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Brick wall is in place. Not far north of here the dew points are around 30 and the confluence is pressing down. This would be a widespread 20” snowstorm like a 1/23/16 or PDII if it could’ve happened in February. Grrrrr 

but at least the rain will end by Sunday morning so no more of that 5 days of rain nonsense some were talking about

 

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like someone drew the northern rainfall cutoff with a ruler. This is what happens with such an elongated record block over SE Canada.The line extends from south of Detroit due east into the Atlantic. So the cutoff gets stuck for days underneath.


0036A540-3F96-434F-BF6F-58376C05E57D.thumb.png.ab14ba3bf3c190258db40d48b7ec2e49.png

A1F29FD8-08BC-4C7F-92C2-147B383A70E5.png.5e748213ede9c328dc60b334e12e9ff7.png

 

at least the rain will be over here by Sunday morning.  It can rain in the Carolinas all it wants

 

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