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5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

huh every forecast I looked has nothing but sunshine after that storm leaves on Saturday

 

The cutoff is slowed down a lot on the latest guidance as Bluewave pointed out. It ruins at least into Sun and likely keeps clouds/cool maritime air into Mon. 

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1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

probably a bunch of days with mid 70s dewpoints followed by flash flood blobs

Yeah, another summer on the Euro with the subtropical ridge and Bermuda high pushing up into the Canadian Maritimes.


7A62574E-9675-4D59-BC83-699A7943F83A.thumb.png.39c498c44c3848c8f6c13769f87ea614.png

3E901A2A-8911-4E3A-8C7C-51AD0429D512.png.6ca782dff3e7f24f4e1cbd37dd54ebac.png

 

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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, another summer on the Euro with the subtropical ridge and Bermuda high pushing up into the Canadian Maritimes.

and warm water to pump our dewpoints 

Image

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This has been our default summer pattern since 2018.


CA3DE535-C242-4356-96A9-23A7A91DBFBF.png.91b222b46a0b27f3f9e92e48130cf8e9.png

 

The "stuck patterns" theme continues!  What are the chances of summer lasting deep into September again, followed by a struggle to establish blocking during next winter?  :axe:

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22 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

The "stuck patterns" theme continues!  What are the chances of summer lasting deep into September again, followed by a struggle to establish blocking during next winter?  :axe:

Summer is late may thru early October now

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Models bumping back south for the upcoming rain. I-84 corridor may be dry for the most part. Crazy that in early May we’re still dealing with strong confluence and dry air brick walls. This would be a 20” storm easy south of the brick wall if it was 2 months ago. Now it’s just wind driven cold misery. 

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The latest brief taste of spring that saw temperatures rise into the 70s under bright sunshine today will be a fleeting memory.

A coastal storm will bring rain, gusty winds, and cool temperatures to the region beginning tomorrow through Saturday. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts appears likely. The temperature could rise no higher than the lower 50s on Saturday.

Overall, the first 10 days of the month will probably feature a cool anomaly with temperatures averaging 2°-4° below normal.

During the 1991-2020 period, the April 25-May 5 period saw temperatures average 1°-2° below normal when strong blocking coincided with Niña conditions, as had been the case this year. However, the blocking has now come to an end.

Following such blocking cases, approximately 50% of such cases went on to see a warmer to much warmer than normal second half of May. The breakdown of blocking increases prospects for a warmer second half of the month and an overall warm monthly outcome. Some of the long-range guidance suggests that a dramatic and sustained shift to a warmer regime could develop after May 10.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around April 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +14.27 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.955 today.

On May 3 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.625 (RMM). The May 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.194 (RMM).

 

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3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The latest brief taste of spring that saw temperatures rise into the 70s under bright sunshine today will be a fleeting memory.

A coastal storm will bring rain, gusty winds, and cool temperatures to the region beginning tomorrow through Saturday. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts appears likely. The temperature could rise no higher than the lower 50s on Saturday.

Overall, the first 10 days of the month will probably feature a cool anomaly with temperatures averaging 2°-4° below normal.

During the 1991-2020 period, the April 25-May 5 period saw temperatures average 1°-2° below normal when strong blocking coincided with Niña conditions, as had been the case this year. However, the blocking has now come to an end.

Following such blocking cases, approximately 50% of such cases went on to see a warmer to much warmer than normal second half of May. The breakdown of blocking increases prospects for a warmer second half of the month and an overall warm monthly outcome. Some of the long-range guidance suggests that a dramatic and sustained shift to a warmer regime could develop after May 10.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around April 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +14.27 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.955 today.

On May 3 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.625 (RMM). The May 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.194 (RMM).

 

Surprised at your forecast a bit Don. Seems light on precip. Models indicate a widespread 1-3” of rain and we know how wet these recent storms the last few years can be. 

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3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The latest brief taste of spring that saw temperatures rise into the 70s under bright sunshine today will be a fleeting memory.

A coastal storm will bring rain, gusty winds, and cool temperatures to the region beginning tomorrow through Saturday. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts appears likely. The temperature could rise no higher than the lower 50s on Saturday.

Overall, the first 10 days of the month will probably feature a cool anomaly with temperatures averaging 2°-4° below normal.

During the 1991-2020 period, the April 25-May 5 period saw temperatures average 1°-2° below normal when strong blocking coincided with Niña conditions, as had been the case this year. However, the blocking has now come to an end.

Following such blocking cases, approximately 50% of such cases went on to see a warmer to much warmer than normal second half of May. The breakdown of blocking increases prospects for a warmer second half of the month and an overall warm monthly outcome. Some of the long-range guidance suggests that a dramatic and sustained shift to a warmer regime could develop after May 10.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around April 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +14.27 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.955 today.

On May 3 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.625 (RMM). The May 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.194 (RMM).

 

warm summer...not not very hot?  Looks like the excessive rainfall will keep us from having  a very hot summer

 

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Morning thoughts…

It will be cloudy with showers and steadier rain developing. The temperature will fall during the morning. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s in much of the region before temperatures fall. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 57°

Newark: 58°

Philadelphia: 60°

Tomorrow and Sunday will be unseasonably cool days with additional rain.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 69.0°; 15-Year: 69.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 69.9°; 15-Year: 70.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 71.8°; 15-Year: 72.3°

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The next 8 days are are averaging 58degs.(49/67) or -4.

Reached 66 here yesterday as local sea breeze kicked in.

Today: Slowly falling T's through the 50's, 2"-3" rain from Noon till Sunday PM, wind e., wind gusts 35-40mph, 47 by tomorrow AM.    GFS high T goes monotonically up from 50 on Saturday to 90 over 8 days if BDCF's do not interfere.    Looks dry too.

Windy until Wed. AM to some degree.     Getting to 80's by then?

GFS doing it's  T Thing!    Soon it will show the first 100's.     Stand By Please....................

1651816800-Cyrr6s8cQAY.png

1651957200-z03X0ZRBpek.png

57*(76%RH) here at 7am.{was 60 at midnight}    62* at 10am.      58* at Noon.       55* at 4pm.       52* at 8am.

 

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Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Models say welcome to summer by later next week. 

Just have to get through these next few days and then it's 80s and maybe even 90+ galore. 

Once this cutoff is finally gone and we can establish westerly flow, we’re probably off to the races into summer. However we still have to watch how much of a trough lingers over the Maritimes. If that stays, high pressure will build to our NE and promote more back door fronts nearby. 

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36 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Once this cutoff is finally gone and we can establish westerly flow, we’re probably off to the races into summer. However we still have to watch how much of a trough lingers over the Maritimes. If that stays, high pressure will build to our NE and promote more back door fronts nearby. 

It will be a battle of where the cutoff finally stalls out. The Euro keeps areas near the coast in an onshore flow. If the Euro is correct, then NYC and LGA may not be able to get their first 80° day yet. But we’ll have to wait for later model runs to see if the 80° over the top warmth to our NW can work down closer to NYC. We just need the Bermuda high to be a little stronger than the backdoor high to the north for the first 80° in NYC and LGA.


ECBD3C64-8B8A-43FC-81B5-9AD85AABFE41.thumb.png.c32c9eebc55febf7275b6620a50cccc9.png
 

7609F485-79B3-462D-B8F9-1C5D475DDD17.thumb.png.249fedd60251cc5ca1b53e74130426db.png

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Models say welcome to summer by later next week. 
Just have to get through these next few days and then it's 80s and maybe even 90+ galore. 
Highs on central long island not forecast to get out of the low 60s late next week

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

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