May 2022

[hooralph]

Hail on the UWS!

[CIK62]

Quick scare:                         

[donsutherland1]

Some very small hail in Larchmont, NY.

[lee59]

Thundershower moving thru here.

[jm1220]

Thunder here. My mom told me it absolutely poured in Long Beach. 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Thunder here. My mom told me it absolutely poured in Long Beach. 

yup, it's clearing over here now.

It lasted for about 20 min

[Intensewind002]

Pretty tame storm, maybe a gust to 25 mph with a few rumbles of thunder

[bluewave]

Tuesday looks like it could be the 3rd 95° day of the season so far. Very warm WNW flow ahead of the backdoor. Quite a difference between our area and New Hampshire. JFK could beat the record high of 92° set in 1988.

 

Data for May 31 - JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature	Precipitation	Snowfall	Snow Depth
1988-05-31	92	65	0.00	0.0	0
1991-05-31	91	69	1.08	0.0	0
1986-05-31	91	69	0.01	0.0	0

[forkyfork]

two day total of 2.5" in springfield

[bkviking]

Port Jefferson as storms approach. Buddy on other side about to take ferry in Bridgeport reported hail 

[BxEngine]

Parts of Rockland are underwater. 

[Brian5671]

Heavy quick storm here with good wind and vivid lightning-ending now

[donsutherland1]

Some photos:

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and seasonably warm. Much warmer air will move into the region for Monday and Tuesday before another cold front breaks the short warm spell. Much above normal temperatures will likely persist from Philadelphia southward in the Middle Atlantic region through the middle of next week.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Galveston has an implied near 100% probability of recording its warmest May on record. Galveston will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 82.7°. The existing record is 80.4°, which was set in 2018. Galveston has already recorded its most 90° high temperatures and 80° low temperatures on record for May.

Some of the guidance has suggested that June could be warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. The latest EPS weeklies suggest otherwise.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +13.50 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.360 today.

On May 26 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.805 (RMM). The May 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.187 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 64.1° (0.9° above normal).

 

[bkviking]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and seasonably warm. Much warmer air will move into the region for Monday and Tuesday before another cold front breaks the short warm spell. Much above normal temperatures will likely persist from Philadelphia southward in the Middle Atlantic region through the middle of next week.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Galveston has an implied near 100% probability of recording its warmest May on record. Galveston will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 82.7°. The existing record is 80.4°, which was set in 2018. Galveston has already recorded its most 90° high temperatures and 80° low temperatures on record for May.

Some of the guidance has suggested that June could be warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. The latest EPS weeklies suggest otherwise.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +13.50 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.360 today.

On May 26 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.805 (RMM). The May 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.187 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 64.1° (0.9° above normal).

 

Don - the SOI has been way above average  between moderately strong and extremely above average for seemingly weeks now. 
I presume this despite MJO/ CCKW crossing the pacific - nonetheless  it is reinforcing a La Niña pattern . Can this lend confidence to at least next 4 months ? 
even if things suddenly changed - isn’t this La Niña pattern baked into future at this point ?

i am not sure but presume we are safe with La Nina styled pattern for summer at this point . 
mot sure where we stand statistically at this point although this is quite anonymous with a third year La Niña . 

[bluewave]

The +SOI gave us the -PNA and the La Niña contributed to  the record ridge over SE Canada. But we got a more amplified version of the typical May La Niña background state. Rare combination of unusually cold spring La Niña SSTs, +SOI, and negative IOD.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, bkviking said:

Don - the SOI has been way above average  between moderately strong and extremely above average for seemingly weeks now. 
I presume this despite MJO/ CCKW crossing the pacific - nonetheless  it is reinforcing a La Niña pattern . Can this lend confidence to at least next 4 months ? 
even if things suddenly changed - isn’t this La Niña pattern baked into future at this point ?

i am not sure but presume we are safe with La Nina styled pattern for summer at this point . 
mot sure where we stand statistically at this point although this is quite anonymous with a third year La Niña . 

The odds increasingly favor a persistent La Niña. We’ll probably see a 3rd consecutive La Niña winter. By mid-summer, the guidance will be in a range where one can have good confidence in the forecast outcome.

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.30" of rain for the day. 

Two day total 0.73"

Current temp 69

[rgwp96]

11 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

Really tropical like torrential downpours here.  

A little over 2 inches in since last night 

[CIK62]

The last 3 days of May are averaging  78degs.(66/90) or +10.

Month to date is  63.0[+0.2].        May should end at  64.4[+1.2].

Reached 76 here yesterday.

Today: 73-80, wind direction variable, m. sunny, 66 tomorrow AM.

EURO is coolish/wet after Tuesday.    CMC is dry with normal T's.      Next T outburst on the GFS is June 09/10.

For Tues the GFS is 97,   the remaining models and NBM are 92-94.

64*(78%RH) here at 7am.        69* at Noon.       71* at 3pm.

[bluewave]

Tuesday could feature a very impressive temperature drop especially east of the Hudson. Near record highs in the 90s could drop sharply at night. It will all depend on how fast and far west the backdoor makes it before stalling out. It may come down to nowcast time for the higher resolution models. 
 

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny and warm. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 79°

Newark: 82°

Philadelphia: 84°

Tomorrow will be fair and very warm.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 74.6°; 15-Year: 75.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 76.2°; 15-Year: 76.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 77.9°; 15-Year: 78.5°

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Tuesday could feature a very impressive temperature drop especially east of the Hudson. Near record highs in the 90s could drop sharply at night. It will all depend on how fast and far west the backdoor makes it before stalling out. It may come down to nowcast time for the higher resolution models. 
 

 

 

 

Hopefully it stays east of this area.  It can hang around in Suffolk County, we don't need or want it here.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Hopefully it stays east of this area.  It can hang around in Suffolk County, we don't need or want it here.

Backdoors this time of year usually stall out in Central NJ. That’s what the 12z guidance today is indicating. So we should see a big temperature drop on easterly flow especially here on Long Island. 
 

 

[uncle W]

June 13-15, 1961...NYC sets a record high on 6/13/61 and almost sets a record low the next day...not sure if this event was a back door...

1961-06-13	96	75	85.5	14.1	0	21	0.00	0.0	0
1961-06-14	88	53	70.5	-1.2	0	6	0.52	0.0	0
1961-06-15	66	54	60.0	-12.0	5	0	T	0.0	0

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, uncle W said:

June 13-15, 1961...NYC sets a record high on 6/13/61 and almost sets a record low the next day...not sure if this event was a back door...

1961-06-13	96	75	85.5	14.1	0	21	0.00	0.0	0
1961-06-14	88	53	70.5	-1.2	0	6	0.52	0.0	0
1961-06-15	66	54	60.0	-12.0	5	0	T	0.0	0

I believe Boston holds the US backdoor after 90s record dropping from 91° to 59° in one hour during April 02.

 

[donsutherland1]

With bright sunshine and temperatures in the middle 70s, the New York Botanical Garden is nearing summer form.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Backdoors this time of year usually stall out in Central NJ. That’s what the 12z guidance today is indicating. So we should see a big temperature drop on easterly flow especially here on Long Island. 
 

 

But that would be after the peak heating of the day correct?

I'm not sure why we have been getting so many of these in the last few years, I remember in the 90s these rarely ever happened.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I believe Boston holds the US backdoor after 90s record dropping from 91° to 59° in one hour during April 02.

 

Yes that was the common pattern back in the 90s and early to mid 00s, Boston would get backdoored and we wouldn't.  I fondly remember those summers.

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

But that would be after the peak heating of the day correct?

I'm not sure why we have been getting so many of these in the last few years, I remember in the 90s these rarely ever happened.

 

Yeah, it looks like a nighttime backdoor after peak heating. The extension of the subtropical ridge into SE Canada has been giving us frequent backdoors and onshore flow in recent years. Sometimes we see it linking up with the Greenland block. So high pressure over SE Canada is typical in this pattern.