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2022 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread


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24 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

DVN confirmed an EF-1 near Freeport.

Also irritatingly close to where I was yesterday, although the timestamp on it was several hours earlier. I don't recall any warnings being issued around that time either, except the ones to the east in the Chicago 'burbs.

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14 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Tornado has been reported.  Actually had PDS wording in the text.

You and ChicagoWX’s buddy Chad called out IND on NWSChat last night for calling it a “large and dangerous tornado” when it was clearly a small and weak one (landspout?).  They said they issued based on info they had at that time, that they were very busy, that they issued a regular warning 10 minutes later, and finally gave half-hearted mea culpa.

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So far, NAM forecast soundings for Monday show the same issue as Sunday...rock solid capping due to very warm and dry at 850mb...kind of ridiculous that we are having this issue even along/east of the Mississippi when normally our problem in the spring is that we can't get a proper Plains-style EML/dryline this far northeast.


Edit: On second look, today's 12Z NAM is showing a few areas where the cap may potentially break Sunday evening. Still need to keep an eye on it.

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1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

You and ChicagoWX’s buddy Chad called out IND on NWSChat last night for calling it a “large and dangerous tornado” when it was clearly a small and weak one (landspout?).  They said they issued based on info they had at that time, that they were very busy, that they issued a regular warning 10 minutes later, and finally gave half-hearted mea culpa.

I thought it seemed a little odd to have a large and extremely dangerous tornado on a day like yesterday, but didn't think much of it.

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Kinda interesting that MKX can completely ignore a 3KM EHI >7 with 1KM SRH approaching 400 m2/s2 over portions of their CWA 54 hours out (on the 18Z NAM), even if there is the likelihood of strong capping. I feel like that office (my local one, so I read them the most) used to be staffed by severe geeks who would do very detailed discussions, but most of them have retired and now they just kind of gloss over threats (although granted, it has been quite a few years since we had a real high-ceiling one that actually materialized, so maybe they've just given up).

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Tornado watches up for MN. Rough weather developing in the central part of the state. 

At 502 PM CDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located
over Eagle Bend, or 23 miles northeast of Alexandria, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
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Location: 1 S FORADA, MN
Description: Tornado
Magnitude:
Report Time: 04:35 pm CDT - 5/30/2022
Remarks: CONFIRMED TORNADO BY LAW ENFORCEMENT, DAMAGED A HOME.

 

Location: 3 W STARBUCK, MN
Description: Tornado
Magnitude:
Report Time: 04:10 pm CDT - 5/30/2022
Remarks: SPOTTER SAW A RAIN-WRAPPED TORNADO ON THE GROUND. TREES ARE DOWN AND A PICKUP TRUCK TOWING A TRAILER WAS ROLLED.

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03:40 pm CDT - 5/30/2022 APPLETON, MN Tstm Wnd Gst

90 MPH

 

Location: 3 N MILAN, MN
Description: Tornado
Magnitude:
Report Time: 03:30 pm CDT - 5/30/2022
Remarks: TORNADO HIT A FARM. THE FAMILY TOOK SHELTER.

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1 hour ago, Powerball said:

For a day with a 15% hatched tornado risk level, yesterday was pretty underwhelming with only 5 reports.

That said, there were ton of wind reports (over 150).

I think some of those wind reports will be changed to tornadoes once surveyed, but it was a toss-up going in if there were actually going to be any large, cyclic, intense tornado family-producing supercells (as of Friday/Saturday the setup was drawing comparisons to 6/17/2010, but that was quickly tempered by storm mode doubts). I made a last-minute decision not to chase when I was pretty sure the storm mode would suck, not to mention racing speeds into bad terrain. Witness the number of chasers who came up from the Plains for Monday, but like @Quincy went back the way they came morning of.

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2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Feels juiced, shame about the clouds tho

Pretty typical for our region.  Plains get blasted with severe, and then the zombievection and leftover clouds co ck block the setup the next day in our region.  Pretty much just come to expect it lol.

Bring on the mid-summer ROF nocturnal extravaganza pleeze. 

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4 minutes ago, madwx said:

signs pointing toward active NW flow in our area starting this weekend and heading through next week.   definitely will be an uptick in our storm chances

To me it doesn't look like a good pattern for appreciable severe chances though.  I'd love to be wrong about that but I fear we may be waiting until mid-month for more robust severe prospects.

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