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2022 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion


Chicago Storm
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1 hour ago, frostfern said:

What do y’all think of the chance for supercells tomorrow afternoon over Lower Michigan.  Im thinking of driving up to Gaylord as the higher terrain seems more likely to break the cap.  I’m thinking if something can get going it has the chance of dropping plains-style hail which is rare around here.  It could also be a cap bust though.

It's very unchasable. I'd say if you want to chase in the state just chase the thumb and hope something hits there.

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1 hour ago, frostfern said:

What do y’all think of the chance for supercells tomorrow afternoon over Lower Michigan.  Im thinking of driving up to Gaylord as the higher terrain seems more likely to break the cap.  I’m thinking if something can get going it has the chance of dropping plains-style hail which is rare around here.  It could also be a cap bust though.

I'm not trying to talk you out of it, but Stebo's right about crappy chasing territory and SPC's being pretty wishy-washy about the possibility of something popping the cap. But if it happens, Katie bar the door (and protect your windshield).

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4 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

I'm not trying to talk you out of it, but Stebo's right about crappy chasing territory and SPC's being pretty wishy-washy about the possibility of something popping the cap. But if it happens, Katie bar the door (and protect your windshield).

Almost everywhere in Michigan is crappy chasing territory.  I will not drive under any core.  In the past I drove up behind a small core and picked some 2" stones off the ground for pictures.  Honestly, watching a squall line come in off Lake Michigan is usually what constitutes a good "chase" for me.  It just hasn't happened this year so far.

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Pathetic severe weather season yet again, but it can snow through April in Ohio, the new norm.  Bring on the extreme torch and end this miserable, laughable season already of rain showers with embedded boring thunder.

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1 minute ago, NTXYankee said:

Pathetic severe weather season yet again, but it can snow through April in Ohio, the new norm.  Bring on the extreme torch and end this miserable, laughable season already of rain showers with embedded boring thunder.

I have only heard one semi-close lightning strike this season.  Late April I think.  All it does is drizzle lately.

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35 minutes ago, frostfern said:

I have only heard one semi-close lightning strike this season.  Late April I think.  All it does is drizzle lately.

Yep, winter dominates and summer shows up for about 3-4 months up here anymore.  It’s really sad when Minnesota can have enhanced risks that pan out and a slight risk barely materializes this way.

 I stopped looking forward to severe weather season several years ago in central Ohio.  Once the snow stops at the end of April just bring on the SE Ridge, it saves frustration, I don’t mind the heat.  Thought the early active track would change things, it didn’t.  Just blew past us and up north.

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Parameter space is pretty high end looking across Michigan tomorrow, but residual capping and no obvious forcing mechanism ahead of the cold front suggest any threat is conditional, at best. A few CAMs hint at storm development in northern Lower Michigan, but I think that’s pretty lousy terrain for storm chasing. 

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1 hour ago, frostfern said:

I don't think anything will get to the thumb until after dark.  I need to see what SPC is saying tomorrow.  

Id gamble on something coming in sooner than expected vs trying the forest north of US-10

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2 hours ago, frostfern said:

I'm don't have access to raw model data so that's the best I have to go by.  I have a feeling it will all be elevated behind the front and even that might miss north.  Typical rare high cape situation going to waste.

Hope that the elevated stuff in Wisconsin can survive the night and lay an outflow boundary somewhere toward the us10 area that something could fire and latch on too.  Once you get north as others have said it's all hills/trees and a very spotty road network.  Chances it happens are not high but it's better then trying to work up north. Or wait for a better day. 

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Gaylord Maps pic makes me sick. Looks like Chattanooga after our tornado. Ditto Scanner. Alas, we are still interested in severe and that is OK. We cannot control it.

Anyway I am looking at Illinois and Indiana for meso-scale accidents on Saturday. Doubt anything will be learned from 00Z data. It is wake up in the morning and decide if I want to drive 5-6 hours for a low-probability event. Probably not, but I'll check.

One scenario is stable rain-out. Other is quick end to morning rain. Leaves boundary south of synoptic front. I'm a fool for outflow boundaries. However the south part creates terrain issues. We'll see.

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Couldn’t quite catch back to to the tornado that hit Gaylord. I was in Mancelona when the supercell was wrapping up and becoming rooted near the surface. Traffic, curvy roads and deep woods proved detrimental. Hope everyone is okay, that was an impressive radar signature, especially for so far north. 

 

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