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2022 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion


Chicago Storm
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41 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

They did come north/east.  Probably still not quite far enough though.

Yep, GFS/NAM/3KM NAM pretty much all agree on far EC IL into Indiana being the hot spot. Hoping the GFS's 2nd-day (of a severe event, thinking of 4/12-13) progressive bias is at play here, although the NAM agreement gives me pause.

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The 00z convection-allowing models have high coverage of thunderstorms near the Illinois-Indiana border on Saturday afternoon. There are some disagreements on shear, possibly varying from 30 kt to 50 kt. Storm-relative helicity will not be too high. CAPE values could be 1500 - 2000 J/kg.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

There is a fairly obvious failure mode for tomorrow, and it's how deleterious will the morning convection be.

One of the many times we have this issue each season.

If that morning complex can clear out quick enough and clearing can occur in its wake for a while, the ceiling *could* be an enhanced risk worthy day. But at this point given 8/10 times things don't work out and also taking into account the present look of guidance, I'd roll with a marginal risk at this point to start.

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Nothing right know AFAIK but about an hour or so ago the west part of the ILX CWA, west of Springfield, got some appetizers for tomorrow's event (if anything for our area).  There were at least a couple Severe thunderstorm warnings SSW of Jacksonville, IL.  If the current cell holds SPI is in play for at least a strong storm in the next hour or so.

 

Could SPC's 01z outlook extend the marginal farther east into at least Central and Western Illinois?

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This is really going to be a nowcast or near nowcast thing.  Right now it seems like there may be just enough of a break and enough destabilization so that the setup isn't completely killed.  Certainly conditional potential for a decent severe threat if things break favorably.

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22 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This is really going to be a nowcast or near nowcast thing.  Right now it seems like there may be just enough of a break and enough destabilization so that the setup isn't completely killed.  Certainly conditional potential for a decent severe threat if things break favorably.

Also... while not higher end potential, the threat (including tornadoes) looks pretty well squarely placed in Chicago metro.  Always a little more concerning than usual when involving such populated areas.

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Kind of getting the feeling that even though we are seeing a nice wedge of clearing/destabilization/warming/moisture return, this still may not perform.

We’ll see if it’s a mirage/overthinking or not soon.

SPC held on to slight risk with the updated SWODY1, which I agree with.

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7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

It's not a small area under threat.  The corridor of backed flow + instability is/will be hundreds of miles wide, though the overlap region is a bit narrow at a given time.  I'm sure there will be some severe wx.  

If you had to choose, where would you start the day off? I'm probably gonna head east south eastish from Aurora and keep on my toes. Figure I'm only gonna get one shot, maybe two so

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16 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

It's not a small area under threat.  The corridor of backed flow + instability is/will be hundreds of miles wide, though the overlap region is a bit narrow.  I'm sure there will be some severe wx.  

That's the problem w/narrowing down a target today, CAMS and SPC are no help lol. Partially my proximity bias at play but the IL/WI stateline region looks as good as any as it's where the tongue of moisture gets pulled back toward the TP.

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17 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

If you had to choose, where would you start the day off? I'm probably gonna head east south eastish from Aurora and keep on my toes. Figure I'm only gonna get one shot, maybe two so

I'm not sure.  Maybe LaSalle county.

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If you had to choose, where would you start the day off? I'm probably gonna head east south eastish from Aurora and keep on my toes. Figure I'm only gonna get one shot, maybe two so

Personally, if I go when I leave ORD at 2PM, it’ll be somewhere between Rochelle and Bloomington. Maybe take the middle with LaSalle.
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16 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'm not sure.  Maybe LaSalle county.

 

13 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


Personally, if I go when I leave ORD at 2PM, it’ll be somewhere between Rochelle and Bloomington. Maybe take the middle with LaSalle.

LaSalle it is. Thank you both

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  • Chicago Storm changed the title to 2022 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion

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