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March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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Reminds me of that one March event we had in 2015 (March 20th?). Similar timing with it being early morning, and only the elevated and favored areas really got much, which I believe was a slushy 1-4", while UHI hell had nothing but snowTV.

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

It's winter . That's a big part of the fun on a weather forum.:D

I see no harm at all. Everybody knows there own climo and adjusts accordingly as well as for timing and precip rates . 

I wasn't talking to you. Snow maps are useless. I never said yall couldn't track it. 

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4 minutes ago, mappy said:

I wasn't talking to you. Snow maps are useless. I never said yall couldn't track it. 

Yeah...plus it's the NAM way out in range!  Perhaps northern and western areas could possibly get more than snow TV.  But even if I lived there, I'm not so sure I'd be overly excited about it (barring some significant change in the next day or so).  Still, it will be quite a change from near 80 degrees today!

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18 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

It's winter . That's a big part of the fun on a weather forum.:D

I see no harm at all. Everybody knows there own climo and adjusts accordingly as well as for timing and precip rates . 

Uh...I'd bet my next paycheck that everybody DOESN'T do this, and instead consciously or subconsciously get excited over a Day 7 snowmap. That be the problem, imo. I wish snowmaps didn't exist beyond 48 hours...MAYBE 72 hours at the most.

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Uh...I'd bet my next paycheck that everybody DOESN'T do this, and instead consciously or subconsciously get excited over a Day 7 snowmap. That be the problem, imo. I wish snowmaps didn't exist beyond 48 hours...MAYBE 72 hours at the most.

Make that 12-24 hours for the NAM!! :lol:

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13 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Thanks!  NWS says 2-3 inches accumulating for the west of my county, so I will happily track.

you're welcome! enjoy what you get! :) 

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15 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Make that 12-24 hours for the NAM!! :lol:

Lol Ya know I'd willing to concede 48 hours for the NAM...since the proverbial "wheelhouse" starts there--as it can occasionally pick up a trend the globals may be slower to recognize (but someone can correct me I'm wrong about that).

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9 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

That cold shot this weekend for you guys is going to be no joke. One of the better airmasses of the season for the OH and TN Valley areas. Considering the time of year, it's definitely pretty robust 

Based on H5 heights it looks robust, but 2m temps seem low-mid 20s. Do you think that’s under done?

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24 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

That cold shot this weekend for you guys is going to be no joke. One of the better airmasses of the season for the OH and TN Valley areas. Considering the time of year, it's definitely pretty robust 

No doubt!  Regardless of any snow chance, that's going to be quite a change when the front goes through.  Ahhh, March!!  Makes me think of an event in late March 1987 in northeast Ohio.  It was like 75 degrees that last weekend.  The next day they got 16" snow!!  Perfect timing of a very strong front with a nice wave that propagated along it.

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2 hours ago, mappy said:

I wasn't talking to you. Snow maps are useless. I never said yall couldn't track it. 

As are pictures of Victoria's Secret models, unless you look like Zak Efron. People still love to look at them. 

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2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Based on H5 heights it looks robust, but 2m temps seem low-mid 20s. Do you think that’s under done?

Probably a bit underdone I would think. Height falls are solid and the thicknesses are ~510dm, which is a good airmass for at least teens in the AM and low 30s for the PM. This time of year you have a bit more variance in temps due to increased sun angle, but it shouldn't make too significant of a difference in the grand scheme. MEX for FDK is 21 on Sunday AM, so I think a few degrees cooler into the teens would be suitable. Highs around 35-38 for Central MD. Considering the flow veering to the E/SE, that could happen. Progressive pattern

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While Im highly skeptical of a backend snow situation over the weekend, the EURO is now the most aggressive model in showing this....even if it didnt snow, any merit to maybe some sort of patchy ice build up for some locations with rapidly dropping temps Saturday?

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35 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

While Im highly skeptical of a backend snow situation over the weekend, the EURO is now the most aggressive model in showing this....even if it didnt snow, any merit to maybe some sort of patchy ice build up for some locations with rapidly dropping temps Saturday?

Yeah the backend snow thing is...well, iffy.  Unless you get something that develops on the end of the front and moves by (kind of how the GFS was showing the other day?).  It has happened before...even in March.  In particular off the top of my head, early March 2014 and 2015.

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6 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yeah the backend snow thing is...well, iffy.  Unless you get something that develops on the end of the front and moves by (kind of how the GFS was showing the other day?).  It has happened before...even in March.  In particular off the top of my head, early March 2014 and 2015.

Yeah apparently the EURO and GFS have now flipped..Euro shows a decent backend snow scenario while GFS has backed off...Like I said, Im skeptical of the snow scenario itself but it does look like this has potential to be a powerful front and some pretty quick temp drops.

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46 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

While Im highly skeptical of a backend snow situation over the weekend, the EURO is now the most aggressive model in showing this....even if it didnt snow, any merit to maybe some sort of patchy ice build up for some locations with rapidly dropping temps Saturday?

As we know, back end snow is iffy and usually a fail! Additionally, flash freezes are rare! You get a burst of snow, followed by cold, and the sun has set I could see it possibly happening. I have seen that before, but I know flash freezes are rare for us, challenging to predict, and far less likely this time of year. 

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It will snow by Saturday… with all of this wind forecast I decided to store away my heat mats until next year rather than take the time to weight them down again for the upteenth wind storm this month.  I expect my sacrifice to the snow gods to be rewarded.    

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12 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

As we know, back end snow is iffy and usually a fail! Additionally, flash freezes are rare! You get a burst of snow, followed by cold, and the sun has set I could see it possibly happening. I have seen that before, but I know flash freezes are rare for us, challenging to predict, and far less likely this time of year. 

Yeah not really saying a flash freeze happens per say but I could see a scenario where north and west of the beltways maybe get some patchy ice formation.

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