Coastal cyclogenesis and minor to moderate impact Feb 8/ 8.5, primarily SE areas ...for now.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Giving me 6”?   Is there sleet mixed in there?

Anything back here?

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Anything back here?

A consolation flake.

[PhineasC]

Is the HRRR at 48 like the GFS at 384 and NAM at 84? Looks great but…

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

A consolation flake.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Nam is really disjointed, never consolidates like the hrrr. Pretty meh until Maine 

Yeah most guidance is a disjointed mess which probably means this is mostly a non-event until you get to Maine. Could be some marginal advisory snows from N ORH into interior NH but the disjointed look sucks…gonna want to trend it into more of a closed circulation aloft to make this more interesting. 
 

 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hrrr had maybe a coating. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Anything back here?

Take it for what it’s worth.  An inch?

 

[PhineasC]

NAM still paints a 6” or so snowfall for here. Kicks off some upslope it seems. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

NAM still paints a 6” or so snowfall for here. Kicks off some upslope it seems. 

Decent event there. This one may target where @jculliganlives.

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

NAM still paints a 6” or so snowfall for here. Kicks off some upslope it seems. 

I'm still not sure I buy it but Waterville on Tuesday might line up nicely if it comes through with that QPF just south of the Presidentials.  Though might be a bit too far west?

[NW_of_GYX]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I'm still not sure I buy it but Waterville on Tuesday might line up nicely if it comes through with that QPF just south of the Presidentials.  Though might be a bit too far west?

Gonna be there for an industry event Tuesday. Will be hard to leave 4-6” here if that’s the way it works out though. That’ll send this stretch into memorable status for here. Shoot if we end up with what some models are advertising here I may just not bother with Waterville at all. 

[PhineasC]

10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I'm still not sure I buy it but Waterville on Tuesday might line up nicely if it comes through with that QPF just south of the Presidentials.  Though might be a bit too far west?

I’m just planning for a refresher here. NAM is overdone most likely, but HRRR looked tasty too. Very fragile setup, it’ll keep shifting around. I have a hot hand last few weeks so why not expect more snow?   

[PhineasC]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Decent event there. This one may target where @jculliganlives.

Been a decent winter for the eastern upslopes. 

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Gonna be there for an industry event Tuesday. Will be hard to leave 4-6” here if that’s the way it works out though. That’ll send this stretch into memorable status for here. Shoot if we end up with what some models are advertising here I may just not bother with Waterville at all. 

Interior SouthWestern Maine is in a good spot for this one. I could see Shawnee being close to the jackpot. 

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

T CT Interior SouthWestern Maine is in a good spot for this one. I could see Shawnee being close to the jackpot. 

That's real close around GYX. It's a marginal sounding, but hanging around that magic 1000 ft depth of warm air that can be overcome if rates are heavy enough.

[NW_of_GYX]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

T CT Interior SouthWestern Maine is in a good spot for this one. I could see Shawnee being close to the jackpot. 

That would great. This has been a mini weenie spot this winter since we hit on some of the coastals that fringed Conway, bethel and the eastern whites and Mahoosucs.

[CoastalWx]

It’s puke worthy to see a track like that and rain into the interior. 

[Professional Lurker]

N ORH is prob close.  

Nope.

Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s puke worthy to see a track like that and rain into the interior. 

Winter 2021-22 in a nutshell for many.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s puke worthy to see a track like that and rain into the interior. 

It’s kind of a faux sfc track though because the upper air is way west…we get this weird IVT out ahead and the flow at 925/850 is due south. The storm might as well be over ABE. By the time the thing consolidates it’s way northeast of us. Just another turd setup really that masquerades as something that “should” look good for us. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, Professional Lurker said:

Nope.

Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk
 

Close to being in bad shape I mean. 
29” when I avg 72-75. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s kind of a faux sfc track though because the upper air is way west…we get this weird IVT out ahead and the flow at 925/850 is due south. The storm might as well be over ABE. By the time the thing consolidates it’s way northeast of us. Just another turd setup really that masquerades as something that “should” look good for us. 

Oh I know, that WAA kills us. But even as it wraps, there’s like no cold to feed in LOL. 

[ineedsnow]

ICON is 33 and rain here gets the  Berks and NH pretty good though

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s puke worthy to see a track like that and rain into the interior. 

Right, nearly .50 QPF down here and a coating. Blows.

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

…and it’s balls ass cold right now too. Weeeeeeeeeee

[Damage In Tolland]

Might be an icing event with elevation in spots 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Might be an icing event with elevation in spots 

This could actually be one of those events where some ice happens in lower spots because the in-situ CAD would be extremely shallow. Like ORH could be 34F and raining while ORE or FIT is 29F and ZR. 

[Professional Lurker]

Close to being in bad shape I mean. 
29” when I avg 72-75. 

I haven't measured this year, but I'd guess that I've got 15" or less season to date. I'd also guess I average 60-65.



Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Professional Lurker said:

I haven't measured this year, but I'd guess that I've got 15" or less season to date. I'd also guess I average 60-65.



Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk
 

That is horrendous for there. How much did you get in 2015-16? That was another historically bad year in NW MA. 

[Professional Lurker]

That is horrendous for there. How much did you get in 2015-16? That was another historically bad year in NW MA. 

Honestly don't remember, sorry.

The silver lining has been constant snow cover in my yard. I'm definitely a pack guy, and realize that typically only a grinch storm will prevent my yard from being snow-covered from late Dec to March.

Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk