Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,276
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    weatherman27
    Newest Member
    weatherman27
    Joined

February Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowmagnet
 Share

Recommended Posts

17 hours ago, Chris78 said:

Definitely a D for my Yard. I'm in Washington County about 3 miles from the M/D line.

12" on the season. Average is about 28"

The only reason I dont give an F is  because I did have a 6" storm back in the middle of January.  Was totally whiffed on the Jan. 3rd.

Nickled and Dimmed my way to 12"

D for me here as well…in Frederick County. Better than I expected after a very warm start in Dec., but still not a good season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Just in time for 2-3 weeks of 40F rain to end March and start April.

Might score a mid March paste bomb!

At this point persistent cold or snow on the ground for more than a day is a fantasy. This upcoming period won't resemble March of 14 or 15. That h5 look is showing up on both the EPS and GEFS though, and with hints of a blocking ridge around Greenland- albeit displaced further north than ideal- you can see how it might help keep the TPV displaced in a good spot, and to slow vortices moving through the 50-50 region.

1646870400-cTklIyZSIsI.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, BristowWx said:

shortest winter ever.  1 month...a good month but still.  unless March does something silly like a 93 event I am giving it a solid C+ merely based on January for my yard. 

i have a feeling we better start getting used to winters that last one month to maybe six weeks.

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

i have a feeling we better start getting used to winters that last one month to maybe six weeks.

We had a lot of winters like the last few in the 70s and 80s. Especially the 80s. I don't disagree we are losing on the margins because of avg temps. That's obvious AF. Ive been used to compressed cold, boring winters, and early springs since birth. Lol

Still not a shutout pattern or early spring. The struggle for snow has been real all year up and down the east coast except for the postage stamps and 50 mile wide stripes that hit south of us. At this point, I strongly doubt that changes but dumb luck can never be ignored around here. At least not completely 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Overnight WB runs of GEFS and EPS were pretty dry the next 15 days….that donut hole devoid of precipitation has been consistent.

Just an observation this year... feels like MA winter wx chasing has turned you from Weather Will to Weather Won't. It's a brutal game. Ji's therapist ended up needing therapy after trying to fix him. 

  • Haha 12
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

... feels like MA winter wx chasing has turned you from Weather Will to Weather Won't.  

          The handle "Weather Won't", which intends zero disrespect toward Will, is just hilariously true in its ultimate context as a statement on the forum as to the plight of the mid-Atlantic.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We had a lot of winters like the last few in the 70s and 80s. Especially the 80s. I don't disagree we are losing on the margins because of avg temps. That's obvious AF. Ive been used to compressed cold, boring winters, and early springs since birth. Lol

Still not a shutout pattern or early spring. The struggle for snow has been real all year up and down the east coast except for the postage stamps and 50 mile wide stripes that hit south of us. At this point, I strongly doubt that changes but dumb luck can never be ignored around here. At least not completely 

I generally agree but the AO flipping negative could change the equation slightly. I’m skeptical but willing to be open minded. But a epo/pna driven pattern with a raging positive AO is just as flawed and difficult to score in as a -AO with a hostile pac.  Right now, as I said to Cape in his storm thread, we are in a double bind. We need waves to gain amplitude to overcome the progressive flow and not get suppressed. But with a raging +AO anything that does amplify likely tracks to our northwest.  We’re left needing to thread a needle. If the AO does flip negative we could have more luck we there could be some resistance to a more amplified wave not just cutting.  We are running out of time but could get a window before it’s over if the changes up top on guidance are real. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We had a lot of winters like the last few in the 70s and 80s. Especially the 80s. I don't disagree we are losing on the margins because of avg temps. That's obvious AF. Ive been used to compressed cold, boring winters, and early springs since birth. Lol

Still not a shutout pattern or early spring. The struggle for snow has been real all year up and down the east coast except for the postage stamps and 50 mile wide stripes that hit south of us. At this point, I strongly doubt that changes but dumb luck can never be ignored around here. At least not completely 

i guess the one good thing is that we can still occasionally score with the right set up and get absolutely dumped on.  i feel like that won't be going away even in the midst of winters that are warming up fairly rapidly

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have not given up on winter.  Posting about my Hail Mary mid March storm for a couple of days….I admit I have seen too many head fakes this year when everyone gets excited with a good midday run.  
 

I enjoyed the cold in January even without much snow in southwest Frederick County.  Reminded me of many years back in the 70s and proved that we can still have a cold month in winter.

I like to think my posts are more factual than negative but the truth hurts sometimes…

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GEFS thru Day 7, I just laugh at this point….patterns do repeat themselves….we need a superstorm to shake things up!!!!

F986D934-168C-4924-B59B-0EFB4B0CEC68.png

Remember my advice the other day about backing away from the snow maps? You somehow manage to glean information that simply isn't there. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...