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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

A couple things- an atmospheric block literally blocks the flow- slows it down and kinks it, giving storms more of an opportunity to track underneath and up the coast instead of progressing off to the east. When we get a classic block in the NA, it is a west based -NAO with anomalously high heights across Davis Strait/Baffin, and that is usually accompanied by a quasi stationary vortex (50-50 low) off of the Canadian Maritimes. So we have a low to our NE and we end up with HP to our N/NW (no GL low!) which is exactly what we want to keep cold air in place as storms approach from the SW. In the current pattern those HP areas tend to slide off the coast and turn the flow more easterly off the Atlantic, and getting a coastal low to track in the right spot for snow is more of a thread the needle deal. As we have seen this winter when we do have a cold trough in place over the east, the tendency is for storms to form further off shore.

Ah I see--That makes more sense now. Thanks for the blocking tutorial :lol: And man I can't wait to see that blocking (WITH cold) again! When did we see that last? 2016? Lol 

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The primary 'problem' we are seeing on the latest op runs is the advertised amplitude(and progression) of the western ridge. The image below is from the Euro- the ridge folds over(breaks) and that peels off a TPV lobe that crashes down and obliterates that southern vorticity ribbon. At this range the amplitude/progression/axis of the ridge and the degree (and location) of NS energy that drops in are likely not representative of the actual outcome. We need the NS to constructively interact with the southern energy, which mostly involves timing. There is a reason we rely more on the ensembles at this range. B)


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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

You’ve been making a bunch of good posts dude.

lol thanks. I do my best. I don't always have the time, but when I do and there is something trackable, I try to do a bit more analysis. Hopefully some folks get something out of it, and I don't make a fool of myself in the process. :lol:

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