Winter 2021/2022 February Thread

[Holston_River_Rambler]

51 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said:

Keep seeing reference to TIMS, what is that about if somebody doesn't mind explaining

It was a model we invented (Thunder In  the Mountains) based on the old saying that thunder in the mountains in winter means snow soon. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

On 2/5/2022 at 12:16 PM, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Alright long range GFS in banter, work your magic:

 

 

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Keep an eye on what comes after the big cutter in the Plains.  Thunder here...and you know what might come next.  TIMS models activation may be in order.  Modeling is showing a system to our SE(low road) right after that cutter.  The northwest trend is the real deal during late Feb.

 

That is the time frame for the GFS's big Chatt system from the 12z Feb 5 run. 

[Dsty2001]

47 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

It was a model we invented (Thunder In  the Mountains) based on the old saying that thunder in the mountains in winter means snow soon. 

It's funny, I remember my grandpa ranting about this when I was a kid and he seemed to predict snow better than the local mets lol

[nrgjeff]

Saturday snow is canceled for southeast Tenn. I'm now much more interested in Thursday severe Mid South.

Maybe it'll TIMS after that, haha!

[PowellVolz]

Yo-yo season has started. 65 today, 45 Sunday, 65 Wednesday, 50 Saturday.


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[Carvers Gap]

Looks like the last window will be just after March 10th.  Yep, I think there is one last gasp.

[Carvers Gap]

...In addition to the potential light event this weekend and the window around the 20th(the storm AFTER the cutter).

[PowellVolz]

Some snow showers moving in. Looks like @John1122 is getting a good one right now


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[dwagner88]

I just signed a contract on a new house. I’m moving out to Apison. The house sits at around 950’ in elevation on the back side of White Oak Mountain. It should do much better in winter events than my current house in the city at 780’.

[Carvers Gap]

Just looking at the CFSv2 and the EPS with the east Pac/AK block...winter is not over IMHO.  That is a BIG east Pac block at the end of the EPS run.  CFSv2 is quite cold looking mid-late March.  I would not be surprised (to each @John1122) to see a rogue snowstorm in March. 

[Mr. Kevin]

Mid march is a month from now and by then we would possibly see ULLs develop unless we have a big trough set up. ULL are big snow producers and it's been a while since my area has seen one. 

[jaxjagman]

Someone is going to get dumped on if the long range models are right.Mid Level ridge around the Caribbean and Upper Level Ridge around the MId Atllantic.No clue about severet but hydro would suggest with this pattern some serious flood potential somewhere

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Is it really a flood threat until janetjanet starts posting here? 

But yeah, the  past several runs of the GFS have been showing someone getting 5"+ between the Ohio Valley and us. So far most of those runs favor the OH Valley. The EPS mean is up to around 3.5 - 4" across most of the state. I'd say 25% of the members get us over 5 - 6" and one member gives ye olden "get your waterwings and floating flamingos ready" amounts of 8 - 11 inches over eastern parts of TN. 

Hopefully the CFS is right and we get a break by early - mid March from this pattern that seems to be setting up. It seems to me to be like the pattern we've had, in the sense that the northern stream kept throwing energy at the Gulf, but it just never synced up with southern waves. So there were a bunch of chances for something big, but it never pulled it off. This new pattern looks like it will keep throwing energy at us in ways that would be conducive to flooding, but hopefully it doesn't sync everything up just right. 

[Carvers Gap]

And if the EPS is correct, we go from a flood pattern and back to a huge eastern PAC block which would set the stage for some cold wx in March.  The GEFS is less enthused.  I am a lot less bullish on a warm and early spring than I was a week ago.  We are definitely going to see a warmup prior to any cold along with massive return flow and moisture.

[Carvers Gap]

Unless I am just looking at the wrong slides, that is a fairly significant flip by the 12z GEFS post 300 to a cooler/colder pattern and away from the torch.

[Carvers Gap]

Major flip on the Euro Weeklies around week 2.5.  They have turned quite cold.  Of course, it could be a mirage, but those are some abrupt changes that are showing up on LR modeling.  At least to me, that is a pretty significant storm signal which we don't always see during March these days.  I don't think winter is over.  It may take a break for a couple of weeks, but that looks not warm for early March.

[John1122]

I'd like to see a big March hitter. 3-5 inchers in March used to be common here. With the upside of course for big big storms. 

[Carvers Gap]

New is left and old is right.  Day 14-21.  Cold is centered after March 2nd or 3rd.  The overall configuration at 500 is a snowstorm look.  Lots of cutters, but one of those cutters could likely force a bowling ball underneath. 

[Mr. Kevin]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Major flip on the Euro Weeklies around week 2.5.  They have turned quite cold.  Of course, it could be a mirage, but those are some abrupt changes that are showing up on LR modeling.  At least to me, that is a pretty significant storm signal which we don't always see during March these days.  I don't think winter is over.  It may take a break for a couple of weeks, but that looks not warm for early March.

Carver, I think the only way that happens is if the mjo gets in colder phases moving forward. If it quickly moves through the warm phases, then we may have another opportunity. I'd be fine with strong ULL.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

GFS has ben showing some strat. warming at the pole pretty consistently at the end of its run, for the past few cycles. More than I've seen so far this year when I've paid attention to it. If it can hold for a few more days it might have some legs. 

 

[Mr. Kevin]

3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

GFS has ben showing some strat. warming at the pole pretty consistently at the end of its run, for the past few cycles. More than I've seen so far this year when I've paid attention to it. If it can hold for a few more days it might have some legs. 

 

I like your optimism. I personally don't want to see it because by the time it kicks in, it will be too late for most around here imo. Maybe help another stretch pv event soon

[John1122]

Our last follow up weak Nina was 2017-18, March was active that month with several snowy days.

[Matthew70]

For the majority outside of mountains & higher elevations.  It’s most likely cold cold rains here in mid state.  I will take a hard pass on those. Please.

[Math/Met]

Just wanted to mention that the mountain wave event for Thursday is looking very impressive. The 850mb wind chart is what you'd expect for a damaging wind event in the typical mountain wave areas. There are obviously other factors in these events (850mb wind speed and cross barrier wind direction only explain about 50% of the variability in MW wind gusts at Camp Creek), but this has many characteristics of a very strong wind storm along the mountains and foothills.

[Carvers Gap]

11 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Carver, I think the only way that happens is if the mjo gets in colder phases moving forward. If it quickly moves through the warm phases, then we may have another opportunity. I'd be fine with strong ULL.

Yep.  I think that is what modeling is showing. 

[Carvers Gap]

It may or may not work out, but that is a nasty looking shot of cold showing up again on modeling this morning.  I don't think lower elevations are out of the game.  We just haven't seen a crazy March in a while.  Even recently, I have seen light, measurable snow into April IMBY.  It may well flip back warm during that time frame, but the speed of the flip on modeling could indicate significant cold relative to norms.  We'll see.  Still have a couple of weeks until that time frame gets here.  A lot can and will change at that time.   For now, we have the 0z GEFS/EPS/Euro Weeklies on board.   It could bust.   The much discussed 10th-20th timeframe will not verify as cold or snowy as modeled at range. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

11 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

I like your optimism. I personally don't want to see it because by the time it kicks in, it will be too late for most around here imo. Maybe help another stretch pv event soon

Yeah if it happened in early March no one in this area would likely see the effects for at least 3 weeks, but I figured I'd throw it out there since it has been so strong this winter.  But if it can promote some late March blocking in the AO and NAO areas, it might help keep any dynamic upper lows south of us. 

 

[PowellVolz]

I like your optimism. I personally don't want to see it because by the time it kicks in, it will be too late for most around here imo. Maybe help another stretch pv event soon

I agree. Once we get into March I’m thinking about spring, lawn, landscaping and outside projects. Lots of golf but we typically play 12 months of the year.


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[Silas Lang]

3 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

I agree. Once we get into March I’m thinking about spring, lawn, landscaping and outside projects. Lots of golf but we typically play 12 months of the year.


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Same. Mountains and some upper Plateau areas can score later, but it typically ends up as a cold rain here. Not really interested in that. If it is going to rain, then I at least want it warmer. 

[Daniel Boone]

7 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Yeah if it happened in early March no one in this area would likely see the effects for at least 3 weeks, but I figured I'd throw it out there since it has been so strong this winter.  But if it can promote some late March blocking in the AO and NAO areas, it might help keep any dynamic upper lows south of us. 

 

Yeah, IF favorable phases coincide with strat induced blocking, chances of a storm is possible in March and a blockbuster at that. However, LATE March cuts down the odds particularly in lower eles..