Winter 2021/2022 February Thread

[dwagner88]

Concerned about the GFS sniffing out flooding. This is the timeframe. It’s been a running tradition for 3 years now I think.

[John1122]

The Euro tired to make another go at it that time. Big storm for the mountains and North Carolina, very close for a lot of East Tennessee.

[John1122]

06z GFS wasn't there yet but it took a big step NW with its precip shield. 

[Carvers Gap]

Just looking at the 6z GFS(12z is running now), it looks like bowling ball season is about to begin.  Most of those are cutters, but all you need is one.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS left almost no energy over the 4-Corners for this weekend's potential window.  Until that model resolves that BIG problem, no solution can be trusted.  MAJOR differences at 12z.

[Carvers Gap]

That "should" be a phase if that trend continues.

[Carvers Gap]

iMHO, that is a decent pass by the slp on the 12z GFS.  It is still a "reach" but a little more like the overnight Euro.  The GFS is having a multitude of problems with handling energy being in(or not in) the Southwest.  If all of that comes out, there should be a storm.

[Carvers Gap]

12z CMC with a different scenario.  There is so much energy is in the pattern, it makes me think of this quote....

"Negative, Ghost Rider.  The pattern is full."

.

[Carvers Gap]

18z GFS sort-of got back the clipper which feeds into the slp.  NE areas of the forum benefit.

[1234snow]

Y’all might want to check out the 0z GFS. Negative tilted trough……..

[John1122]

Just now, 1234snow said:

Y’all might want to check out the 0z GFS. Negative tilted trough……..

Was just coming here to post this. That's an East Tennessee, SEKY, SWVA classic storm right there. We had one similar a few years ago that dropped 5-8 inches across the area.

[John1122]

Very nice for Eastern areas. We need some consistency from modeling before I can buy in too much though.

[Dsty2001]

I would take that and be happy for the next couple winters if verified lol

[Holston_River_Rambler]

The basic idea of the 0z GFS is still there at 6z, just a tad further SE. 

[Silas Lang]

50 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

The basic idea of the 0z GFS is still there at 6z, just a tad further SE. 

Yup. I think that is the first time it has appeared two runs in a row. Hopefully it continues with the 12z today. Would like to see it on the Euro as well. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Complex...and I mean complex set-up.  I don't trust any model at this point.  With that much energy running around(and strong), one would think a winter storm in the east is plausible this weekend.  Hopefully, modeling begins to reach some kind of loose consensus today.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

#neverforget:

4 run trend on the GFS  from the last storm's shortwave out west, within hour 123. 

 

and of course let us not forget the ever popular "tail" solution either:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

For now we shall enjoy the look of the 6z GEFS height and vorticity mean,  "bias corrected" (whatever that means on storm vista)

 

Here is the non "bias corrected" for comparison:

[Carvers Gap]

The GFS at 12z is a swing and a miss.  Again, modeling is having trouble with timing/location/amount/intensity of energy over the SE US and the incoming wave from the northern front.  The 12z ICON(usually conservative) has a blizzard for the big cities in the NE.  This is a highly complex set-up where timing matters.  This is one which could sneak-up on folks.  For now, I have set the usual 1" of snow bar.  Anything higher is a bonus.   This is a low probability event with a big ceiling if that makes any sense at all.  

[Carvers Gap]

For now, I am waiting on the warm-up that folks have been promising since late December.   LOL and just kidding around.  I went out to water the onions in our hoop house and cold frame, and the ground is frozen on the outside of each.  Inside it is toasty warm.  Season extenders are awesome if you garden.  

The MJO....Has any model  been right this winter in regards to the MJO?  It is in phase 2 now, and is pretty much stalled for a 8-12 days in 2 and 3.  I wonder out loud if maybe we see a false warm-up yet again with just a ridge rolling in from the west after the 20th?  I actually think we see warming after the 20th for an undetermined amount of time.  Looks to me like a "cold, reload/warm east, and cold returns pattern" after the 20th.  This colder pattern has certainly been slow to burn out.  Maybe it will warm-up by spring.    

[Bigbald]

CMC 0/12z looks really consistent with a storm that doesn't materialize until basically out to sea, gfs 12z looks similiar.  This has been a familiar pattern for what seems like the last 30 days, progressive flow easterly development.

[Carvers Gap]

44 minutes ago, Bigbald said:

CMC 0/12z looks really consistent with a storm that doesn't materialize until basically out to sea, gfs 12z looks similiar.  This has been a familiar pattern for what seems like the last 30 days, progressive flow easterly development.

Yep.  Pacific driven pattern sometimes make confluence very tough IF the system doesn't originate in the northern stream.   We need a clipper fest and not "thread the needle" phasing where there is nothing to prevent the system from sliding OTS.  If we could simply get a legit cutter, that would help our chances.  

[nrgjeff]

Threading the needle is the only hope for Southeast Tenn. Otherwise Carvers is right it's mostly strike-outs for the rest of the Region. What am I doing in this thread? 

Upper Plateau and Mountains could cash in if we can get a buffet line of clippers going. Last time I personally got snow from a clipper was probably KC circa 1990, lol!

Does not count NC WV ski trips.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

The last clipper with the squalls was the only one I remember in like the last decade. 

12z Euro is a late bloomer too. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

But it also gives us another squally clipper around hour 140:

[Carvers Gap]

26 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Threading the needle is the only hope for Southeast Tenn. Otherwise Carvers is right it's mostly strike-outs for the rest of the Region. What am I doing in this thread? 

Upper Plateau and Mountains could cash in if we can get a buffet line of clippers going. Last time I personally got snow from a clipper was probably KC circa 1990, lol!

Does not count NC WV ski trips.

Yeah, I should clarify....clippers are normally north of I-40.  
 

 

[Carvers Gap]

The Euro provides two clippers.  A word of caution, clippers trend north over time in many cases.  What is fun about clippers is that they are often under modeled during Feb.

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yep.  Pacific driven pattern sometimes make confluence very tough IF the system doesn't originate in the northern stream.   We need a clipper fest and not "thread the needle" phasing where there is nothing to prevent the system from sliding OTS.  If we could simply get a legit cutter, that would help our chances.  

Yep. With this Pattern we need digging Clippers. The s.stream actually hurts us with those sometimes. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

3 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yep. With this Pattern we need digging Clippers. The s.stream actually hurts us with those sometimes. 

 

It is the exact opposite of a low in the Lakes in that respect, right?  We get a good northern stream piece of energy...unless there is a phase, we just want the clipper or northern stream event.

The 18z GFS has all kinds of stuff going on including a clean pass of an inland/Apps runner for what was originally a cutter!  LOL.  See hour 228.  This could get kind of crazy.   There is so much energy in the pattern after the 10th.

[Daniel Boone]

Exactly Carvers. Yeah, hopefully we get that moderate snow area this weekend but displaced about 50 statute miles Se.