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2022 Atlantic Hurricane season


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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Long range goofus

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_42.png

That would be a beast if it verifies( very unlikely). It would spend something like 60 hours near or on the FL west coast.  The rainfall would be measured in feet in addition to whatever surge and wind damage there is.

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23 minutes ago, AChilders said:

GFS does it again with the 12Z run.  Pure fantasy at this point. 

 The extended portion of the GFS has gotten ridiculous with its numerous runs having hurricane threats over the last few weeks. It has for a number of years had a bias toward too strong activity in the Gulf and W Caribbean, especially during early and late season.

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GFS had really been consistent showing a storm moving north out of the Caribbean this time next week. Talking about 7 days from now, it's not really long range fantasy. If this doesn't verify something really needs to be done with the GFS.

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The GFS was doing the same thing with Tropical Storm Alex. The time frame wasn't exact, and I think there was a pretty long delay between when the long-range runs showed it happening and when it actually happened, but the scenario ultimately played out.

We'll see though. It's showing TC genesis in a week which is pretty far out. Once genesis comes into the 72 hour range it'll be more believable/serious.

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6 hours ago, turtlehurricane said:

The GFS was doing the same thing with Tropical Storm Alex. The time frame wasn't exact, and I think there was a pretty long delay between when the long-range runs showed it happening and when it actually happened, but the scenario ultimately played out.

We'll see though. It's showing TC genesis in a week which is pretty far out. Once genesis comes into the 72 hour range it'll be more believable/serious.

I am not sure a storm forecast to affect the US the week before Memorial Day, when the Euro had Agatha and was fairly close on the vorticity E of it then developed.  Few years back, now Dr. Papin (I think it was him) suggested the GFS had issues with latent heat transport, making it prone to spurious development near Central America.

 

As long as a few (not many) Euro ensembles are showing it, it isn't impossible.  Just doesn't seem likely.

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GFS has a major into the Yucatan in 6 days.  So far this year, the GFS has been far too enthusiastic about things developing from the CAG, but I can follow the vorticity back to Venezuela, which is a bit off because my eye is drawn to the blob already past where the hour 12 vort should be...  ETA- there is some analyzed vorticity where the blob is.

BlobWestof12hr850Vort.PNG

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42 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

GFS has a major into the Yucatan in 6 days.  So far this year, the GFS has been far too enthusiastic about things developing from the CAG, but I can follow the vorticity back to Venezuela, which is a bit off because my eye is drawn to the blob already past where the hour 12 vort should be...  ETA- there is some analyzed vorticity where the blob is.

BlobWestof12hr850Vort.PNG

Except further S, thus never getting very strong because of land, Euro might almost be on board with the GFS.

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GFS has been better than the ECMWF in terms of showing the area of concentrated deep convection N. of Panama (and the convection in the SW Caribbean in general).   It is still likely too quick to show development and intensification, but something in between the GFS/GEFS and ECMWF/EPS is possible IMHO.

 

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I think it will be a repeat  of the  dead  2021 season with a  big east  coast trof and very  early  end to the season. Maybe  1 storm will be  memorable.

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On 6/17/2022 at 7:52 AM, ldub23 said:

I think it will be a repeat  of the  dead  2021 season with a  big east  coast trof and very  early  end to the season. Maybe  1 storm will be  memorable.

So last year? How was that in any way a dead season?

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8 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

2 runs of the Euro op have had a very significant looking wave with 850 mb vorticity and nice PWAT entering the E Caribbean at the end of the run,  Has some ECENS support.

2ndRunEuroEastCarbWave.PNG

I remember Claudette in July 2003. A long tracked hurricane that never did much until the end. It slammed into Port O'Connor, TX as a 90 mph nastycane.

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15 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Looks like some ECENS prefer one wave, others prefer the next one behind.  There is vorticity (not a lot of storms) on a wave near the CV.  I'm guessing that is the lead wave some of the ECENS like.  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=eatl&product=ir

EuroWave.PNG

0Z Euro still sees a system in the Caribbean, and various ECENS are still liking either the op system or one a few days behind.  Nothing obvious on the GFS.  Re: 2011- one of two unpleasant years retired met Larry Cosgrove is using for this season.  2011 was the year the dry side of sheared TS Lee downed powerlines around E Texas, one of which started the month long Bastrop wildfire, which destroyed almost 2000 homes in a fairly rural county.  Fires that year in the hills just W of Austin, which may be developed now due to the rapid growth of the city, and all around Possum Kingdom Lake.  Add a few storms, but follow the pattern, there will be wailing and gnashing of teeth in the various East Coast forums about all the 'fish'.

800px-2011_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_mapWiki.png

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18 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

0Z Euro still sees a system in the Caribbean, and various ECENS are still liking either the op system or one a few days behind.  Nothing obvious on the GFS.  Re: 2011- one of two unpleasant years retired met Larry Cosgrove is using for this season.  2011 was the year the dry side of sheared TS Lee downed powerlines around E Texas, one of which started the month long Bastrop wildfire, which destroyed almost 2000 homes in a fairly rural county.  Fires that year in the hills just W of Austin, which may be developed now due to the rapid growth of the city, and all around Possum Kingdom Lake.  Add a few storms, but follow the pattern, there will be wailing and gnashing of teeth in the various East Coast forums about all the 'fish'.

800px-2011_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_mapWiki.png

2011 was the second warmest summer in U.S. history. Deep south and Southern Plains states cooked that year under dome after dome of high pressure. DFW had 56 days of triple digits.   

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