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Potential 1/28-1/30 2022 winter storm


Sandstorm94
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Just now, StoneColdWeatherAustin said:

With the current GFS look, the precipitation outputs look meek.  I would expect much more liquid if it plays out like that.

Yeah, not going to worry about precip amts at this range just yet.  A wind up LP off the coast can bring the noise

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Question for the long term forecasters... Something that is interesting to me is looking at the 18Z GFS at 84. For us coastal NC/NE NC folks, a low center that relatively close to Hatteras usually features a pretty noticeable warm nose that typically keeps us cold rain with the moisture gone before the column sufficiently cools , However, despite somewhat onshore winds at the same time the warm nose in the forecast sounding for the same plot shows only a tiny bump of a warm nose (and still below 0C). My training in weather is more operational than theory and I know the resolution on the GFS is a bit tough along the coast with the influence of the water, however it is unusual that it would depict snow all the way to the bay with where it is depicting this. In the past this onshore influence would normally be depicted and make sense. What would explain the difference this time? I wouldn't think that ocean temperatures would be significantly colder than average, would it? or is the GFS possibly way out to lunch with the lack ocean influence before winds shift more to the NW from NE?

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1 minute ago, jlh said:

Question for the long term forecasters... Something that is interesting to me is looking at the 18Z GFS at 84. For us coastal NC/NE NC folks, a low center that relatively close to Hatteras usually features a pretty noticeable warm nose that typically keeps us cold rain with the moisture gone before the column sufficiently cools , However, despite somewhat onshore winds at the same time the warm nose in the forecast sounding for the same plot shows only a tiny bump of a warm nose (and still below 0C). My training in weather is more operational than theory and I know the resolution on the GFS is a bit tough along the coast with the influence of the water, however it is unusual that it would depict snow all the way to the bay with where it is depicting this. In the past this onshore influence would normally be depicted and make sense. What would explain the difference this time? I wouldn't think that ocean temperatures would be significantly colder than average, would it? or is the GFS possibly way out to lunch with the lack ocean influence before winds shift more to the NW from NE?

Not 100% sure but i think because the strength of the low creates its own cold air to help overcome…but i may be wrong

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1132846245_gfs_z500_vort_us_fh78_trend(2).thumb.gif.e3ccf1c738503f52139ebba80a187725.gif

The last frame here wasn't just a big jump south but west as well, and the trough is closer to a neutral tilt much earlier. Is it crazy to hold on to hope here in N GA and Upstate area that this trend can keep up enough to get us in the game either with a quick gulf draw or quicker cyclogenesis in the Atlantic throwing some back?

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6pm disco from CAE...

Then as we enter the Friday time period, the next weather maker begins to take shape. A deepening upper trough will be moving out of the Mid-West and towards the eastern U.S. As it digs southeastward, an area of low pressure will be developing along the old frontal boundary somewhere off the FL/GA coast through the day. There should be some degree of cold air damming occurring over the cwa to start off the day, but temperatures area still expected to rise into the 40s on Friday. Meanwhile the surface low will begin a rapid intensification process as the upper trough approaches, with the track of the low currently expected to remain well off the southeastern coast as it moves northward. Some Atlantic moisture, along with Gulf moisture, will push into the area during the day, and majority of the guidance does show at least a chance of rainfall through the daytime hours. As we enter Friday night, the deterministic models pushes the deeper moisture associated with the low off the coast east of the cwa. However there will still be some limited moisture that will move through overnight Friday night in association with the upper trough moving in from the west. Its during this timeframe where there is uncertainty. Early Friday evening any precip should still be rain, but as the precip is coming to an end there is a few hours in which there could be a mixture of rain/snow across the northern Midlands, with a very brief period of all snow towards 06z. Much of the central Midlands and the CSRA will remain all rain. Qpf amounts appear light at this time, and very limited impacts would be expected as surface temperatures should be above freezing during that time. After 06z Friday night, the precip moves east, then temperatures drop below freezing the remainder of the night. This still remains a low confidence forecast in regards to mixed precip.

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I  just got home and saw the 18z runs. Haven't read the thread, but i'll say this. If that sourthern vort gets completely sucked up and phased in to the trough then Eastern NC will measure in feet.  It seems like something happened with these runs and that's now a distinct possibility. 

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Don't forget the GFS was the first to sniff a potential major storm for the mid-atlantic.  it's starting to sniff it out again and bringing it back. These trends are telling me EURO is about to cave again. But man theres gonna be a lot of chaotic energy floating around out there and someone is bound to cash in on the east coast

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