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Potential 1/28-1/30 2022 winter storm


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5 minutes ago, eyewall said:

It is looking like a brief deform band event as the low begins to crank and pulls away. DC weenies won't like this one very much. Looks like a nice hit in SE Mass. It is a shame we can't pull a big one from this but it's better than nothing I suppose.

Misses a lot of New England.  Long toaster sales

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5 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

The GFS looks good overall and the low forms in a good location. It’s just that southern energy is so strung out from being held back that there’s not enough juice in the atmosphere to get the precip really going until it’s too late for most. 

Problem for folks around the CLT and CNC area I see is that this relies a lot on producing enough moisture as it pulls away. Always a tricky situation which is why you really need a good phase and for that low to bomb out. Usually these just leave most high and dry. 

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2 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Problem for folks around the CLT and CNC area I see is that this relies a lot on producing enough moisture as it pulls away. Always a tricky situation which is why you really need a good phase and for that low to bomb out. Usually these just leave most high and dry. 

Exactly. We (CLT) would really need this to be neutral or negative at hour 60 when that low is off the coast of SC to get us in the NW precip shield and allow it to bomb out by the time it is to the NC coast. That causes issues for eastern NC early in the event, but they still do well as the low is passing them. 

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16 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

I’m thankful back this way at least here in the mountains we aren’t relying on that LP

Yup spiltsville. Should be fun to watch this play out. Might have to ride up to Little Switzerland.  

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Getting some really strung out snow totals on these models that have concentrations in various and somewhat odd configurations across NC.  Have to believe the final fruition would be more smoothly aligned.  Wherever that will be.

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9 minutes ago, mclean02 said:

Not sure how that 8.2 happens in gso but I will take it lol

This has been a really persistent feature, particularly on the globals. As I mentioned a page or two ago, there could be enhancement from a jet streak, which often over-performs Obviously that value is crazy, but I could see someone getting 3-5" somewhere in the Piedmont, but fairly localized 

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