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January 28-30th Possible Nor'easter


Rjay
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5 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

12z RGEM is slightly east of 6z.  Still a good storm for the Jersey shore and out on LI.

About a 6 inch storm for the NYC area on the RGEM, far less than NAM. Still a little early to take models like RGEM and NAM very seriously though.

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The biggest 12z GFS run of our lives coming up.  I got the snow blower on my right and the baseball bat on my left for the outcome.:lol:

 

In all seriousness you want to see the gfs tend towards the nam and euro here even if its slight improvements.

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Just now, MJO812 said:

Yes it does

This won't be a situation where the QPF is overdone. The moisture coming into this storm will be absurd if the capture/partial stall really does happen. I definitely see 30" happening somewhere in a scenario like that. Of course if it's progressive and doesn't happen that'll be overstated.

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5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Can't trust either the RGEM or NAM yet. Looking forward to hopefully an improvement on the GFS. Doesn't have to show a bomb quite yet but definitely want an improvement. 

Perhaps. But the NAM is in a good range for what happens 12 hours+ before the storm reaches our area. Those Dynamics are crucial to what happens in our area and the NAM showed them to be very favorable.

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1 minute ago, weathermedic said:

I agree but remember the Boxing Day storm had good ratios and very strong winds but still managed to pile up.

I wasn't here for the January 2016 blizzard, but the Boxing Day Blizzard was amazing. One of my favorite all-time storms.

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16 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This won't be a situation where the QPF is overdone. The moisture coming into this storm will be absurd if the capture/partial stall really does happen. I definitely see 30" happening somewhere in a scenario like that. Of course if it's progressive and doesn't happen that'll be overstated.

The question is where? To my "novice" eye, it looks way out east on LI or in NE.

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7 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

I agree but remember the Boxing Day storm had good ratios and very strong winds but still managed to pile up.

The impact of wind on ratios is real.  We had 12" of sand on Boxing Day.  I'll have to go check my records, but the snow:water ratio was less than 10:1.  Of course we were east of the killer deform, but the winds were gusting frequently 50 - 60+ here.

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4 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Gfs leaving more energy behind,  not good 

the northern stream looks quicker.  Let's see what that means...but it will likely be east

 

Trough orientation is more positively tilted...east

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