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January 28-30th Possible Nor'easter


Rjay
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Not favoring any model over the other but what could lend a little more credence to the Euro is that it's been pretty steadfast with its solution over the last 3 days now? while the GFS has been jumping back and forth. The Ukie showing a whiff last night was concerning, we need that to trend significantly west today.

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4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Agreed, you can’t trust the NAM at 84 hrs. So far, the RGEM went east, the GFS went way east, the ICON didn’t look impressive up to 45hrs when it stopped, the 6z op Euro/EPS moved east. The RGEM moving east makes me think the CMC is about to do the same. If I had to guess, gun to my head, the Euro and EPS go east later

The 6z Euro did not move east. The EPS did a bit though.

Agreed in general though. Not good trends overall outside of the Nam.

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4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Agreed, you can’t trust the NAM at 84 hrs. So far, the RGEM went east, the GFS went way east, the ICON didn’t look impressive up to 45hrs when it stopped, the 6z op Euro/EPS moved east. The RGEM moving east makes me think the CMC is about to do the same. If I had to guess, gun to my head, the Euro and EPS go east later

Started running again…..the ICON is GFS like…

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Just now, Franklin0529 said:

How can anyone give the euro any merrit?? It's been brutal all year. Gfs has schooled it an looks like its happening again

I don't care if it's the best model in the world, if it is alone it can't be relied on. I'm reading here the trends are all east. By this juncture it is unlikely there are massive swings west. So let's see if we can get anything at all out of this or if this has been another massive waste of our time. Speaking for north central NJ and west here, heck even the city.

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1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

I don't care if it's the best model in the world, if it is alone it can't be relied on. I'm reading here the trends are all east. By this juncture it is unlikely there are massive swings west. So let's see if we can get anything at all out of this or if this has been another massive waste of our time. Speaking for north central NJ and west here, heck even the city.

Euro has done atrocious this winter 

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3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I would like think out on LI you have a little more time with this, for NYC and def anywhere west of NYC need to see solid changes by 0Z tonight if you want a big storm. Honestly I'm almost fine with a powdery 6 inches or so at this point.   

Verbatim the GFS starts ramping amounts up east of me from where it's like 4-5" in MBY to 8-10" over the forks. I think the forks are in for at least a very solid event. Me hopefully a decent event near the Nassau border and west of NYC sweating these changes. 

But it's annoying how it keeps leaving the energy behind and delaying the phase. Hard to see how it can end well for most of us if that happens. Maybe it's a bias at play but the Euro/NAM also notoriously overamp these. It's all about how fast and fully the streams phase. Delayed/late phase and we're dealing with what I described. 

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4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie is east

 

Hearing the cmc is also east

 

Not a good 12z suite at all

 

 

Be back later

The Ukie ran already?

Anyway, if this is the case, I'd bet anything that the Euro shifts east as well which will be frustrating since it's been the only model that has been consistent throughout most of this.

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4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It did

Like I said earlier for me here in NJ this might be in the same ballpark as the storm earlier in the month where I got close to 4 inches........anyone who has been advertising a major storm for NYC on TV or radio took a big chance .........

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1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said:

The Ukie ran already?

Anyway, if this is the case, I'd bet anything that the Euro shifts east as well which will be frustrating since it's been the only model that has been consistent throughout most of this.

I am willing to bet my life Euro will cave if not at 12z than 00z

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1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

Like I said earlier for me here in NJ this might be in the same ballpark as the storm earlier in the month where I got close to 4 inches........anyone who has been advertising a major storm for NYC on TV or radio took a big chance .........

Not really

All the models did show a huge storm at one point. Remember 18z Saturday on the gfs ? 

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Just now, NEG NAO said:

Like I said earlier for me here in NJ this might be in the same ballpark as the storm earlier in the month where I got close to 4 inches........anyone who has been advertising a major storm for NYC on TV or radio took a big chance .........

4 inches this year is a major storm for us.....

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