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January 28-30th Possible Nor'easter


Rjay
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9 minutes ago, dseagull said:

Take a high level scientific statistics class, and I GUARANTEE you wouldn't be sad.  Numbers are static and involve no emotion.   (Mods, sorry...feel free to remove...back to the storm)

This coastal is just about to get going. By 1630, moods are going to change.  

I happen to understand the statistics and know the odds are hundreds of millions to 1.  My point is, these storms involve emotions. 6 inches on any random day is also really unlikely. How many days in a year does one get 6 inches of snow?...but these situations, and potentials of those situations are what creates a feeling of happiness or feeling one missed out for many people

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39 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This is a very important point here for folks NW of NYC, just saw this tweet and he makes a very good point. The models may be overdoing snowfall NW of the city, they very often miss subsidence: 

 

Yea. Im in Rockland county, and it seems to me that I am probably going to fall in the 2 to 5 inch range. I would be pretty surprised to top that

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2 minutes ago, KeithB said:

I happen to understand the statistics and know the odds are hundreds of millions to 1.  My point is, these storms involve emotions. 6 inches on any random day is also really unlikely. How many days in a year does one get 6 inches of snow?...but these situations, and potentials of those situations are what creates a feeling of happiness or feeling one missed out for many people

 

Gotcha... understand... I'd be happy to have that convo in banter.  

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Crazy. To be honest this dumbbell low might be worse north of us than down here. HRRR gets the goods into our area and S CT before it gets shunted to an extent by the fujiwara thing the lows do. But I really don’t know what to think with this. Also if you showed me the 700mb low track on the Euro I would think at least near NYC and east would get slammed. It takes a very nice track overall. 

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Are you worried about subsidence on the NW fringe of precip shield? (I.E. Orange, Rockland, Passaic, Bergen)? I know many times the models underestimate the subsidence on the NW fringe. IMO we are going to see subsidence issues on the west side of the heavy banding but I’ll defer to you

Yes I am. That's why amounts are so much less northwest of NYC.

WX/PT

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Welp we have the RAP and HRRR on our side so far... look like the Nam and Euro runs from last night. Major levels of snow for NYC Metro and historic looking for LI and the shore on both for now. Yes, yes weenie and all that.

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1 minute ago, Jt17 said:

Welp we have the RAP and HRRR on our side so far... look like the Nam and Euro runs from last night. Major levels of snow for NYC Metro and historic looking for LI and the shore on both for now. Yes, yes weenie and all that.

with that analysis I feel it's a good time to take a weenie nap. Gonna be a long night

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3 hours ago, TheManWithNoFace said:

If you look at some of the QPF outputs on the mesos, there are some indications of a local qpf max in NWNJ or nePA. I have a hunch we might have a dual band feature with this, and Sussex/Warren might actually wind up with more thank Hunterdon/Somerset, which would sit in subsidence between bands. 

Maybe even the Poconos? 6 inches there would be a surprise

 

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1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Certainly not what we had hoped for, but still a solid 6-12" for most areas in the Upton CWA. Some areas NW could see rather high ratios given that the wind threat has really subsided outside of E LI. The Eastern half of LI still looks solid for 12-24".

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

I'm fine with the 10 inches this model predicts for me seems to be in line with other guidance.

 

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22 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Nice radar development off the Carolinas 

Screenshot_20220128-141840_MyRadar.jpg

"any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic."

I think because we're all so close to this stuff that we take it for granted, but the fact that we have models that days and days out called for that development to start right there roughly around this time will always be impressive to me.  When we talk about these models being in 'disagreement', in the big picture they are actually in pretty good agreement - they all called for a snowstorm, they're just apart by what, a few hundred miles on a planet with 200 million square miles of surface area? (had to look it up.)  Been great following this one and learning.  See y'all in the obs thread..

 

 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Welp we have the RAP and HRRR on our side so far... look like the Nam and Euro runs from last night. Major levels of snow for NYC Metro and historic looking for LI and the shore on both for now. Yes, yes weenie and all that.

Also the fv3 high res looks good. 

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