Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I do, I gotchya. I’m gonna rock some madden on ps5 now to kill time before euro. 

I may do the same w THE SHOW on PS 4

[George001]

1 minute ago, bishbish777 said:

The CMC is pretty far east, but still hits EMA ~1.0" QPF. Not bad..lots of room for improvement too.

That’s a great sign when even the “bad” runs are still giving us in eastern mass a foot. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The storm is going to be nearby…we know that much. Really the only major variable right now is still how much southern stream gets incorporated. It’s the difference between maybe a scraper and a cape track roughly. That’s where the realistic goalposts are imho. 
 

If we want to get super weenie-ish about 2 standard devs you could prob extend the goalposts a little further to a whiff and maybe something tucked near BOS but that’s getting fairly low probability. 

Bruce Willis flags for a hugger have been burned. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

10 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Uncle

 

I have no problem with that solution.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

That’s a great sign when even the “bad” runs are still giving us in eastern mass a foot. 

The CMC waffling 800mi or whatever just validated my earlier postulation that it was a west goal post....now this is the eastern post. We are honing in fast. I don't think things go east of that GEM run.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I have no problem with that solution.

UK basically splits the region right where it is, the river. Fights could break out if that verified.

[PhineasC]

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I really don't see anything wrong with where things are right now.

I was hoping for a correction from the east trend, seems like mostly we just held from 12z/18z. This thing missing OTS has always been the concern here. I get that 90% of the forum lives on cul de sacs within 50 miles of the ocean.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Bruce Willis flags for a hugger have been burned. 

No, it can still hug.  Lets see what tomorrow brings wrt wound up solutions.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Bruce Willis flags for a hugger have been burned. 

Yeah today the trends were pretty decidedly against a 100% southern stream phase. Gotta update the priors. 
 

The question is now how much of whatever less than the 100% do we incorporate into the system. I guess something else weird could change in the northern stream but it seems to be pretty steady on most guidance. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

UK basically splits the region right where it is, the river. Fights could break out if that verified.

Yeah, but exactly where we want it at this stage.  She ain't cutting to Albany but West moves are still very much on the table. 

[dryslot]

13 minutes ago, LSC97wxnut said:

Warm core?

Looked like it.

[It's Always Sunny]

Still lots of asymmetric spread but for snow weenies good to see it on the W/NW side. Obviously too far west isn't good but any sign that keeps this thing closer to the coast rather than OTS is a win for the time being.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That looks alot like the GFS Kutchera map.

[JoeSnowBOS]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah today the trends were pretty decidedly against a 100% southern stream phase. Gotta update the priors. 
 

The question is now how much of whatever less than the 100% do we incorporate into the system. I guess something else weird could change in the northern stream but it seems to be pretty steady on most guidance. 

Don’t matter if it’s not 100%, even without that the QPF is impressive and translates to quite a bit of snow.   

[78Blizzard]

It looks to me that eastern MA areas on the Ukie could taint between 18z and 0z, verbatim.  Still a big hit regardless.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, but exactly where we want it at this stage.  She ain't cutting to Albany but West moves are still very much on the table. 

West and east moves can be had, for sure. It’s all about the southern vort for us. Get that to kick east earlier and curl up and in, and we’re slapping nathans with each other. 

[PhineasC]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah today the trends were pretty decidedly against a 100% southern stream phase. Gotta update the priors. 
 

The question is now how much of whatever less than the 100% do we incorporate into the system. I guess something else weird could change in the northern stream but it seems to be pretty steady on most guidance. 

Oh shit, here comes "still a couple inches for the cape." Kiss of death. Maybe by 06z?

[PhineasC]

Please don't make me hug the UKMET.

[OrangeCTWX]

UKMET giving me Juno vibes. Thank god this is still 100 or so hours away.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Oh shit, here comes "still a couple inches for the cape." Kiss of death. Maybe by 06z?

Lol no....I'm just much less afraid of a storm ripping up through ORH than before today. A hugger near the Cape is still a very real distinct possibility, and you don't even need it that far northwest where you are since this is hooking left into the Gulf of Maine....a lot of these solutions that track outside the Cape still hit NH pretty hard like the 00z Ukie.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

West and east moves can be had, for sure. It’s all about the southern vort for us. Get that to kick east earlier and curl up and in, and we’re slapping nathans with each other. 

Yup, laying outside, in the chaise lounges, in full gortex, passing the gummies.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol no....I'm just much less afraid of a storm ripping up through ORH than before today. A hugger near the Cape is still a very real distinct possibility, and you don't even need it that far northwest where you are since this is hooking left into the Gulf of Maine....a lot of these solutions that track outside the Cape still hit NH pretty hard like the 00z Ukie.

I never bought into that with this one.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol no....I'm just much less afraid of a storm ripping up through ORH than before today. A hugger near the Cape is still a very real distinct possibility, and you don't even need it that far northwest where you are since this is hooking left into the Gulf of Maine....a lot of these solutions that track outside the Cape still hit NH pretty hard like the 00z Ukie.

Yeah, I get well over a foot even on the GFS. I bit way too hard on the 2 foot solutions from several cycles ago.

[dryslot]

Phinn shook, He saw the GGEM and is double fisting stouts.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yup, laying outside, in the chaise lounges, in full gortex, passing the gummies.

A boy can dream…

[CCHurricane]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol no....I'm just much less afraid of a storm ripping up through ORH than before today. A hugger near the Cape is still a very real distinct possibility, and you don't even need it that far northwest where you are since this is hooking left into the Gulf of Maine....a lot of these solutions that track outside the Cape still hit NH pretty hard like the 00z Ukie.

Even the GFS has most of NH with a solid 6-12, and 12-18 likely with elevation in the Whites and/or towards the coast. Not a bad hit for pretty much everyone NH points south and to the east.

[weathafella]

33 minutes ago, dryslot said:

0z Ukie is a nukie

 

Won’t help me with nooky but at this point I’d rather have this.

[DavisStraight]

GEFS looks slightly west of 18Z

[PhineasC]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Phinn shook, He saw the GGEM and is double fisting stouts.

I am shook as hell. I have not yet shed the MA attitude that every storm wants to screw me. I hate these storms that just meander out to sea for the fishes and lobsters. I hate them. @dendrite warned me before I bought this house but I didn't listen.