Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Agreed we are a long shot at best. 

I wasn’t referring that we are a long shot though. Just that east zones are preferred at this lead time given the flow and model trends. It won’t take much to trend this closer.

[Typhoon Tip]

28 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Let me test my understanding...the "pulling" of the long wave trough east is possible but not necessarly "standard." If the lw trough does get pulled east, it would probably deamplify the sw, thus limiting the pulling of the trough axis? ... Yes, because the long wave "steals" energy from the S/W;  and vice versa when the L/W trough might be deepening and then the S/W arrives into that basin.

What about the dynamic of a strong sw raising heights out in front of it...isnt that a factor that typically is a natural limiter of a strong sw destroying the lw trough it is embedded in? ... Yes, there's sort of a negative(positive) interference balancing that goes on. If the L/W trough is stretched from a fast flow, the S/W will get robbed... but, if the S/W is very strong, it will offset - it's integrity may remain more so in tact in that sense.  These are moving parts at all times... Sometimes, like in 1995-1996, there was less modulating of L/W and less contention, so S/W were left alone - predictive skill was remarkable that winter.  

Usually we are talking about other factors besides the main sw being the culprits of moving around the 500mb trough.

Also thank you for taking the time to answer my question, really appreciate it.

 

[JC-CT]

There are definitely some similarities to the 18z run this time.

[MJO812]

H5 is way different than 6z

[JC-CT]

Just now, MJO812 said:

H5 is way different than 6z

Yeah it's more like 18z but displaced east. The handling of the sw in the west conus was way different.

[Go Kart Mozart]

44 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Sure ...

I won't repost the whole thing...but great stuff Tip, thanks.

[dryslot]

Too far east this run.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

This won’t get it done…

[JC-CT]

The flatter heights downstream are just killing us

[CoastalWx]

Goes negative nicely just a bit outside. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Too far east this run.

Better at h5 but the lack of a 50 50 low kills it.

[dryslot]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Goes negative nicely just a bit outside. 

Just a bit late, But the potential remains.

[SnoSki14]

29 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Anthony sitting in NYC might want to sit this one out in this sub forum

Anyone not in SE Canada should prob sit this one out.

East trends continue with GFS.

[Typhoon Tip]

31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Icon is a beast. Just Brushing the coast, but nails down east Maine. I don’t mind the position of it.

Ha ha... I didn't even look at the sfc evolution.   ...I mean, beyond the idea that this is the ICON at 120 + hours...  I didn't like the 500 mb V handling and got pissy.  

[Go Kart Mozart]

Expansive precip shield on the ICON

[George001]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Anyone not in SE Canada should prob sit this one out.

East trends continue with GFS.

The gfs is a useless model. The guidance is right where we want it this far out, a day ago the concern was an inland runner and thermals, now it’s ots. Windshield wipers, this happens every storm. 

[JC-CT]

 

[Go Kart Mozart]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Just a bit late, But the potential remains.

Just a wee tad sticky in the south west.

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

The gfs is a useless model

Not every model can be the NAVGEM

[JC-CT]

Just now, Go Kart Mozart said:

Not every model can be the NAVGEM

No, they cant

[DavisStraight]

30 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Yeah, Tuesday looks good up there.  Down here on the other hand.......

I've been toying with a trip up next weekend--hopefully we'll get that track.

You should have bought Pit 2 in Moncton, NS, that way you would never miss a storm.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Just a wee tad sticky in the south west.

Were not getting any run to run continuity @H5 so its going to be all over the place until some of this gets resolved, That's why i'm not concerned at all, Need to let it play out over the next few days.

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, George001 said:

The gfs is a useless model. The guidance is right where we want it this far out, a day ago the concern was an inland runner and thermals, now it’s ots. Windshield wipers, this happens every storm. 

The gfs has been doing better than the euro

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, George001 said:

The gfs is a useless model. The guidance is right where we want it this far out, a day ago the concern was an inland runner and thermals, now it’s ots. Windshield wipers, this happens every storm. 

Nobody was concerned about an inland runner but the gfs is no longer useless. You can’t pick and choose the model that supports your 80” storm. With that said, how is the navy?

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Were not getting any run to run continuity @H5 so its going to be all over the place until some of this gets resolved, That's why i'm not concerned at all, Need to let it play out over the next few days.

I mean, I don't 100% disagree with you, but I don't 100% agree with you either. If the trough isn't oriented favorably at that 84hr mark when our sw is coming down the ridge, all the little micro changes in timing and sw strength don't really mean all that much wrt to how close we come to maximizing the storms potential. It certainly could mean the difference between a foot and nothing for ORH, for example... but the multi region hecs potential is currently on a telemed zoom call with its pcp...pretty soon we might be taking an ambulance ride to the ICU.

[apm]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah this season has thrown so many people on tilt. Literally throwing tantrums about sub-970 scrapers at D6. 

The location being depicted at D6 isn't necessarily bad, but the overall trend among virtually all the guidance, is not at all encouraging.  It's been remarkably consistent with each other and the trending...

[MJO812]

Cmc is really amped 

[Heisy]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Cmc is really amped 

When we get precip maps this probably is a 3 to 4 ft run for someone 

[PhineasC]

Given that things are all over the place and we are several days out, you'd expect to see a run or two of a model showing a hugger or inland runner, or for the ensembles to show some of that. I am not seeing that yet, the envelope is all east on every model. We will see where it goes from here.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

I mean, I don't 100% disagree with you, but I don't 100% agree with you either. If the trough isn't oriented favorably at that 84hr mark when our sw is coming down the ridge, all the little micro changes in timing and sw strength don't really mean all that much wrt to how close we come to maximizing the storms potential. It certainly could mean the difference between a foot and nothing for ORH, for example... but the multi region hecs potential is currently on a telemed zoom call with its pcp...pretty soon we might be taking an ambulance ride to the ICU.

So you thinking this is where that trough is going to end up where its is right now further east? It was further west just a few cycles back.