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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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Just now, TSSN+ said:

Massive change from 18z though 

Yes, but this one has a lot working against it in the DC area.  One is that it drops an inch of rain prior to going near freezing, so the surfaces won’t be cold/dry to start with.  And a big deal is that this is happening mid-day, so even with the clouds we are going to be fighting solar radiation.

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NAM does have a vigorous vort at the same place 12z GFS has , but trough over the northeast is pressing down flattening out anything in front of the vort..don't know if it can climb with that look.   Looked at the progression from 81 to 84 and it's rebuilding heights in front of it...so there's that.

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Just now, MN Transplant said:

Yes, but this one has a lot working against it in the DC area.  One is that it drops an inch of rain prior to going near freezing, so the surfaces won’t be cold/dry to start with.  And a big deal is that this is happening mid-day, so even with the clouds we are going to be fighting solar radiation.

 

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1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

Yes, but this one has a lot working against it in the DC area.  One is that it drops an inch of rain prior to going near freezing, so the surfaces won’t be cold/dry to start with.  And a big deal is that this is happening mid-day, so even with the clouds we are going to be fighting solar radiation.

Yep, seen this film before in the UHI

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

NAM does have a vigorous vort at the same place 12z GFS has , but trough over the northeast is pressing down flattening out anything in front of the vort..don't know if it can climb with that look.   Looked at the progression from 81 to 84 and it's rebuilding heights in front of it...so there's that.

We need to sweep that northern vort through so that there is spacing for the southern vort to climb.

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6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

NAM does have a vigorous vort at the same place 12z GFS has , but trough over the northeast is pressing down flattening out anything in front of the vort..don't know if it can climb with that look.   Looked at the progression from 81 to 84 and it's rebuilding heights in front of it...so there's that.

Yeah (it’s the NAM) they are way too close together . Need to hope the gfs and euro both separate them, and deepen the vortex over Arkansas. And that very well could happen.

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1 minute ago, gopper said:

I know models are printing out a good deal of freezing rain for northern MD, but wouldn't this be more of a rain to sleet situation with limited freezing rain mixed in?

Sleet requires a deeper cold layer so the droplets refreeze before hitting the ground.  This is a perfect freezing rain scenario with the cold temps right at the surface.

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