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Jan 21 - 22 Weekend SE VA and Eastern Shore Snow


stormtracker
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11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I hope the models are just too slow with that vort.  Window starting to close 

It's so frustrating. Like you said earlier, it's one step forward...but I'm thinking one step back. It's not getting worse (except the Euro) - it just refuses to get better. Why can't we get this thing to run NNW from 75miles off Hatteras?  Did it before, so it should do it again. Right? It's the least we deserve.

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11 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said:

Am I dreaming or did we not really get models showing big snow on 1/3 until 2-3 days out?

You’re not dreaming. Still well within range to see enough of shift north to see advisory / low end warning snowfall in the metro corridor and points ESE. Some models already showing it, although it would be nice to see an appreciable trend begin at 18z or 0z tonight Writing the storm off this early when models are still all over the place with the 500mb setup is silly   
 

Give me a bob chill 3-6 type event with temps in the upper teens and 20s and I’m happy as can be. This is just after the mid point in January in the mid Atlantic and we’re talking about events #4 and 5 hitting by the end of this week. People Complaining about that is ridiculous, I’m sorry 
 

The need for some to see a MECS or HECS potential with every coastal is honestly pretty annoying. 

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1 minute ago, jayyy said:

when models are still all over the place with the 500mb setup is silly  

That’s a good point. That happened once earlier. Might have been the first storm. But the h5 plots are changing quite dramatically for something basically 96 hours out

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7 minutes ago, jayyy said:

You’re not dreaming. Still well within range to see enough of shift north to see advisory / low end warning snowfall in the metro corridor and points ESE. Some models already showing it, although it would be nice to see an appreciable trend begin at 18z or 0z tonight Writing the storm off this early when models are still all over the place with the 500mb setup is silly   
 

Give me a bob chill 3-6 type event with temps in the upper teens and 20s and I’m happy as can be. This is just after the mid point in January in the mid Atlantic and we’re talking about events #4 and 5 hitting by the end of this week. People Complaining about that is ridiculous, I’m sorry 
 

The need for some to see a MECS or HECS potential with every coastal is honestly pretty annoying. 

Yeah man, snow before an arctic dump is rare and awesome here.  13 degree lows on dry brown frozen landscape is lame.  Also I love it this time of year because the sun angle is still low and we can hang onto a snow pack. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That’s a good point. That happened once earlier. Might have been the first storm. But the h5 plots are changing quite dramatically for something basically 96 hours out

Exactly. It’s not like we’re seeing the Euro GFS GEFS Ukie NAM and company with near identical 500mb/h5 setups and just slight differences in end result from something like the trough axis. There are still HUGE differences in the evolution of the pattern / storm leading into this event on almost every model. We are going to need to wait until the proverbial players on the field before we start seeing models come around to a consensus. It is completely normal for that to happen within 72-84 hours of an event. 

Those claiming they are certain that things will happen one way or the other are making predictions based on gut feelings / hopium - nothing more. 

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The hi res NAM - which is supposed to be good at deciphering setups like we saw with the last storm / had places NW of Winchester seeing 2-3” the day before the storm. That model is completely out to lunch. They should just revert back for the ETA and call it a day :lol:

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3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Toomer Booger just declared this dead for NY and Bos

It’s definitely dead for them. We are close enough to the event where I’d say the DC - Baltimore and MAYBE Philly metro are still very much in the game for appreciable snow  - but almost zero shot NYC or Boston sees anything significant from this. Nothing to capture the storm or drive it north up the coast. 

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2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

GEFS and GEPS means both moved toward a snowier outcome for us based on what I can see. And EPS still looks pretty good. Still plenty of hope for a nice powder event.

40% of the Euro ENS (20/50 members) were absolute crushers … or is that a bad ensemble run after a bad op run? Clarify: meaning the Euro has moved towards a GFSish outcome. 

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30 minutes ago, jayyy said:

The hi res NAM - which is supposed to be good at deciphering setups like we saw with the last storm / had places NW of Winchester seeing 2-3” the day before the storm. That model is completely out to lunch. They should just revert back for the ETA and call it a day :lol:

There is a Thursday storm that’s running up that way with 1-3” the day before this…

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  • WxUSAF changed the title to Jan 21 - 22 Weekend SE VA and Eastern Shore Snow
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