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January 20-22 “bring the mojo” winter storm threat


lilj4425
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1 minute ago, ILMRoss said:

I'll pump the breaks and say @84 never mind. Too much separation. Another event coming but it won't be a kingmaker.

yea, strange b/c it doesn't match the 84 rgem at all really with regard to the trough interaction with the baja wave.

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Wow so we are all pretty much snowed under and we have another one to track? Best winter in several years lol.  It’s hard to think a on other southern storm may be on the way

all in all the models for this past storm we’re not that bad for mby. I ended up with a bit more than I thought and we fell into the range that was being discussed on Thursday. 

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Funny thing about the CMC is that even after all that pessimism we still get a decent event. 

image.thumb.png.f66cfbdde805dfeb9c08fd88097d9aa7.png

The CMC splits the two shortwave so much that the northern shortwave, less encumbered by the southern wave interaction, is able to maintain some integrity and have a better tilt.

gem_z500_vort_eus_fh114_trend.thumb.gif.9eadafb45dfc4591c6f3d358eda08281.gif

The things that stings is that this set up does not need southern stream interaction. The northern stream can get this done on its own; we need to trend with the shortwave being stronger and digging more. We're currently seeing the opposite trend. 

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1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

So, looks like we have a lot of possible scenarios still and the models are all showing different ones.

*sherlock holmes voice* that's meteorology my dear brick 

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Greg Fishel's thoughts. He actually likes the GFS over the Euro.

HERE WE GO AGAIN!

No sooner do we get done with one winter tease, and now we appear headed for an encore performance later this week or over the weekend. The operative word here is "tease"! I must say, after singing the praises of the European model for decades, something has gone very wrong with our friends across the pond. Take the last 3 model runs for instance-big snow to nothing to big snow. I actually trust the American global model more now, and I never thought I would utter those words. 

Well, no matter what happens with precipitation, another potent shot of arctic air is on the way, and our overall below normal temperture pattern seems destined to continue for awhile. We've experienced below normal temperatures 7 of the last 10 days, with more to come. If anything does happen later this week, it would be induced by the development of a wave of low pressure along the leading edge of the next cold air mass. The question is does that happen, or is it just an innocent cold frontal passage? Time will tell.

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7 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Greg Fishel's thoughts. He actually likes the GFS over the Euro.

HERE WE GO AGAIN!

No sooner do we get done with one winter tease, and now we appear headed for an encore performance later this week or over the weekend. The operative word here is "tease"! I must say, after singing the praises of the European model for decades, something has gone very wrong with our friends across the pond. Take the last 3 model runs for instance-big snow to nothing to big snow. I actually trust the American global model more now, and I never thought I would utter those words. 

Well, no matter what happens with precipitation, another potent shot of arctic air is on the way, and our overall below normal temperture pattern seems destined to continue for awhile. We've experienced below normal temperatures 7 of the last 10 days, with more to come. If anything does happen later this week, it would be induced by the development of a wave of low pressure along the leading edge of the next cold air mass. The question is does that happen, or is it just an innocent cold frontal passage? Time will tell.

Time will tell but we are literally only 4 days and i can’t see how the gfs is right this time when so far 3 including icon of 5 globals show a decent event

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19 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Greg Fishel's thoughts. He actually likes the GFS over the Euro.

HERE WE GO AGAIN!

No sooner do we get done with one winter tease, and now we appear headed for an encore performance later this week or over the weekend. The operative word here is "tease"! I must say, after singing the praises of the European model for decades, something has gone very wrong with our friends across the pond. Take the last 3 model runs for instance-big snow to nothing to big snow. I actually trust the American global model more now, and I never thought I would utter those words. 

Well, no matter what happens with precipitation, another potent shot of arctic air is on the way, and our overall below normal temperture pattern seems destined to continue for awhile. We've experienced below normal temperatures 7 of the last 10 days, with more to come. If anything does happen later this week, it would be induced by the development of a wave of low pressure along the leading edge of the next cold air mass. The question is does that happen, or is it just an innocent cold frontal passage? Time will tell.

So his thoughts are…. “We will see”? Very insightful Fish.

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23 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Sometimes that's the only valid thought to have, if there isn't enough data to come to a conclusion.

yeah, but holy cow there's a heck of a lot more data than that. Pretty sure this is more than just "innocent cold fropa". Now who gets what kind of precip and where?--Sure that's only really known to the Gods right now.

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