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January 20-22 “bring the mojo” winter storm threat


lilj4425
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7 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

I'm just going to throw this out there (cause every run counts at this point) the energy ticked a hair SW on the latest HRRR compared to the same time on 6z run...

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Can you post 500 vort comparison? I don’t see where it ticked SW. Toggling between current run and 6z looks like it’s further east by a hair compared to 6z

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Can you post 500 vort comparison? I don’t see where it ticked SW. Toggling between current run and 6z looks like it’s further east by a hair compared to 6z
It is very subtle, axis looked like it ticked slightly west to my eye4d669f9a01c054f0dad2394f81d90e79.jpg

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90125b8ea7940647766921a6a5b0af1b.jpg
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This may get deleted and if so, I understand but y'all are smarter then me by a lot so I'm going to ask. 

How difficult would it be for my area, Jacksonville, to actually get .25-.5 of ice? As someone in their late 30's, I don't ever remember such a think happening down this way. Maybe I'm just trying to convince myself that it's not going to be that much!

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1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

Looked like it decreased totals from yesterday's afternoon run.

The next post you make had better be on topic and not banter or you will be banned to the sanitarium on a permanent basis. I woke up to a ton of reports that were all your posts. Choose your posts wisely.  

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20 minutes ago, senc30 said:

This may get deleted and if so, I understand but y'all are smarter then me by a lot so I'm going to ask. 

How difficult would it be for my area, Jacksonville, to actually get .25-.5 of ice? As someone in their late 30's, I don't ever remember such a think happening down this way. Maybe I'm just trying to convince myself that it's not going to be that much!

Now cast thing..

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One thing I’ve noticed on a lot of the modeling is to slow down the frontal passage (100% believe this). What this allows for is the changeover to snow to occur for a longer duration for the Northern piedmont areas. It also looks like one of those shortwaves tries to inject a little energy at this time as well. We kinda looked past this first round yesterday, but it may really have the potential for areas west of 95 to be the main event. Some modeling is showing a 1-3 inch snow with this. The RAP and the GFS both have trended this way specifically. Something to watch but I can tell you if I got a 1-3” snow I don’t care what happens in the afternoon that would just be gravy 

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1 hour ago, eyewall said:

call2.jpg

Need to see this slow down just a little bit more, the 6Z GFS spitting out insane ratios for PGV....we get 3" in 3 hrs with .11" QPF....just a few more hrs of that and we would be golden....

 

assuming of course the GFS has this right....the GFS is so close to this being a much bigger deal.

 

220122/0500Z  47  36011KT  24.0F  SNOW   19:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057   10:1|  3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37  100|  0|  0
220122/0600Z  48  36010KT  23.8F  SNOW   23:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.061   12:1|  5.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.43  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220122/0700Z  49  36012KT  23.6F  SNOW   13:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053   12:1|  5.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48  100|  0|  0
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As mentioned a lot, how the upper level energy is handled is what will make or break this for many. 
 

There may be a better resource for this but below is the SPC current data to view the 500mb energy. As several mentioned nowcasting, it becomes as much about monitoring current conditions compared to model predictions and subsequent model runs. Tiny differences in this energy has big implications. 
 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19&parm=pmsl#

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Before this begins, whatever way this breaks, just want to thank the Mets on here for posting and helping us amateurs interpret a challenging setup. This is one well look back on for sure as one of the more complex winter storms in terms of late development and lack of consistent model support all the way through to 0 hour. I love the conversation on this board and appreciate the insight from those posters who know much more about our atmosphere than I ever will. Now let’s reel this one in for someone! :snowing:

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