Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, MAG5035 said: It is kinda brutal to watch this evolve. The surface low goes from GA through the interior Carolinas to near VA Beach which is often workable for a good portion of the subforum. It’s a great shortwave but a tight system and there’s not enough amp in the pattern to bring it up the coast some or northern branch interaction digging into it to draw a much broader precip shield. Yep, in some situations this is a WSW track for us. But model wise, there is nothing turning it north...no negative or neutral tilt. Its full speed ahead East North East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, MAG5035 said: It is kinda brutal to watch this evolve. The surface low goes from GA through the interior Carolinas to near VA Beach which is often workable for a good portion of the subforum. It’s a great shortwave but a tight system and there’s not enough amp in the pattern to bring it up the coast some or northern branch interaction digging into it to draw a much broader precip shield. Yes, well said. Most of the time we get at least something from this type of track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Yes, well said. Most of the time we get at least something from this type of track.Still think southern tier counties will hit low advisory levels.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 39/33 here in southern York County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Very unusual for it not to snow in Lanco with a low off the VA capes. Brutal cutoff that we're likely just on the wrong side of. I'm not one to deprive others, I hope the MA does very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Very unusual for it not to snow in Lanco with a low off the VA capes. Brutal cutoff that we're likely just on the wrong side of. I'm not one to deprive others, I hope the MA does very well. I've been on the wrong side of those brutal cutoffs so many times. Once where I got 1-2 inches at my house, and the Lehigh Valley had 15+ inches just 30 miles south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 11 minutes ago, Voyager said: I've been on the wrong side of those brutal cutoffs so many times. Once where I got 1-2 inches at my house, and the Lehigh Valley had 15+ inches just 30 miles south. You sure have. I'm going (likely at this point) be disappointed tomorrow but appreciative for how often I've done very well at the expense of others. Disappointed? Yes. Bitter for me? Not at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Is Friday still there? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said: Is Friday still there? Lol Sure is. Precip shield forming on the 84 HR nam and Rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Begrudgingly- congrats Eagles fans. Birds have strung together some nice wins lately. I'm jealous of the way your team can run the ball and control the line of scrimmage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Sure is. Precip shield forming on the 84 HR nam and Rgem. NAM a little more invested in the next threat than it was with this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: NAM a little more invested in the next threat than it was with this one. Icon sold the farm to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 I am skeptical MDT sees a snowflake tomorrow. But Friday looks very promising. First actual legit snow event to track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, canderson said: I am skeptical MDT sees a snowflake tomorrow. But Friday looks very promising. First actual legit snow event to track! Just need to convince the Gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Just need to convince the Gfs. GFS with not much of anything cooking on Friday. Weak wave off the SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Hey here's some good evidence if you don't believe snow can stick on the ground after it's been really warm. Was 79 in Alabama and the snow rates were strong enough for it to stick and start accumulating lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: Just need to convince the Gfs. True - if it’s not moving toward other guidance by Tuesday we extremely likely have to punt that storm. And I’d that happens …. we might have to wait until February for our next system to even track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: Just need to convince the Gfs. Lol what happened? Thought worry on this one was a cutter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Best run yet of the Euro with the 1/7 storm, really upped the totals. Like I mentioned last night this event is going to be cold on the snowy side. Little mixing at all in PA, looked mostly relegated to far SE PA (Philly). Tennessee Valley-Delmarva transfer. I don’t understand why folks keep asking “where this storm has gone”. Good thing we’re not the Mid-Atlantic forum, someone would say go look for yourself lol. **Edit to add on 0z Euro ensemble stuff as well. Also, I’m not saying the GFS op is wrong or anything, but again….it’s literally the only thing that doesn’t snow on us with this the last several runs. Even the 0z GEFS has half decent 1”+ probs for PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 6z GFS still has for today 1 to 2 inches of snow in the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 4 hours ago, MAG5035 said: Best run yet of the Euro with the 1/7 storm, really upped the totals. Like I mentioned last night this event is going to be cold on the snowy side. Little mixing at all in PA, looked mostly relegated to far SE PA (Philly). Tennessee Valley-Delmarva transfer. I don’t understand why folks keep asking “where this storm has gone”. Good thing we’re not the Mid-Atlantic forum, someone would say go look for yourself lol. **Edit to add on 0z Euro ensemble stuff as well. Also, I’m not saying the GFS op is wrong or anything, but again….it’s literally the only thing that doesn’t snow on us with this the last several runs. Even the 0z GEFS has half decent 1”+ probs for PA. 0z Canadian also still looks great for Friday.’ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 0z Canadian Ensemble looks good for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 0z Canadian Ensemble looks good for Friday. 6z GEFS ensemble also looks good for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, losetoa6 said: ^ lookin nice Most members bring the snow in Thursday night. Bring It! Anything at your place yet today? I am seeing zippo... I am about 2-3 miles north of you in South Hanover. Radar looks unimpressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Absolutely nothing in York or Lancaster counties on my way to work. I think the writing is on the wall when you look at the direction of moisture on the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Absolutely nothing in York or Lancaster counties on my way to work. I think the writing is on the wall when you look at the direction of moisture on the radar.On my way to work in Cecil County, MD. Extreme SE corner of Lancaster County there are signs it snowed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: ^ lookin nice Most members bring the snow in Thursday night. yeah its nice to have several models showing workable solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, losetoa6 said: I had a quick service call to Union Mills , Md , and haven't seen a flake yet on my travels . When I left my Vp2 it was showing 30F with a NE wind ...usually a good sign for moisture but not today Yeah I just walked the dog and we have a NNE wind but I can see a hint of pink sky off in the NW distance which is dreadful! Fingers crossed for Thursday/Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 6 hours ago, MAG5035 said: Best run yet of the Euro with the 1/7 storm, really upped the totals. Like I mentioned last night this event is going to be cold on the snowy side. Little mixing at all in PA, looked mostly relegated to far SE PA (Philly). Tennessee Valley-Delmarva transfer. I don’t understand why folks keep asking “where this storm has gone”. Good thing we’re not the Mid-Atlantic forum, someone would say go look for yourself lol. **Edit to add on 0z Euro ensemble stuff as well. Also, I’m not saying the GFS op is wrong or anything, but again….it’s literally the only thing that doesn’t snow on us with this the last several runs. Even the 0z GEFS has half decent 1”+ probs for PA. Thanks MAG for another great writeup and analysis! You're a treasure to the forum! That being said, that Euro map is 12+ for me. I might have an off day if that would verify...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 HRRR gets 4" up to the Lanco line. One would think southern Lanco sees at least some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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