paweather Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, Bubbler86 said: A bit south of 0Z. MA weeinies are going to jump in joy. Another MA special UGH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, paweather said: Another MA special UGH! Short pump! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Euro starting its track to meet the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, canderson said: Euro starting its track to meet the GFS? The GFS has no track. LOL. It has some clouds and flurries and only forms an actual surface presentation out into the Atlantic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The GFS has no track. LOL. It has some clouds and flurries and only forms an actual surface presentation out into the Atlantic. I’m now rooting for the GFS. I can live with today’s result, but it would be a tough pill to swallow if the Mid Atlantic got two storms this week and I got nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, TimB84 said: I’m now rooting for the GFS. I can live with today’s result, but it would be a tough pill to swallow if the Mid Atlantic got two storms this week and I got nothing. I would rather go for the W still. Its not like it is a big change from 0Z. The High's (two of them) are pressing a bit more and it forces the Low to traverse through S VA instead of N Maryland. A change of 100 mikes back north and all of S Pa is raked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 Euro does a good job picking up CAD Sunday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 I would rather go for the W still. Its not like it is a big change from 0Z. The High's (two of them) are pressing a bit more and it forces the Low to traverse through S VA instead of N Maryland. A change of 100 mikes back north and all of S Pa is raked. I think it’s in a perfect position. If it amplifies like the last one did, it will be mid Atlantic and NE snowstorm.Any further north and it amplifies, congrats Western PA and central NY.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Okay, I got maps loading now. C,mon guys.. you make it sound like PA got blanked out. What part of that suggests “Mid-Atlantic special”? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: Searching on the all time MDT records shows 6 max and 12 Min Max records were set last year. The 12 seems like it has to be close to a record. 24 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Wow. Nice digging there. Doing some rough math here and considering a period of record ranging 134 years, if things were perfectly random, we would expect about 2.7 such records of each type (i.e. high, low, low high, and high low) to be broken per year. So yeah, 12 seems anomalously high. So, just to elaborate on all of the above, as my numbers brain is off on a tangent today. Not to call @Bubbler86 out or anything but it was "only" 11 days last year that set a record for highest minimum temp, as the 12th was actually January 1, 2022. We'll give Bubbs a pass for his egregious error on this one Side note, there were four such records set in 2020. All this got me thinking ( a dangerous thing) and I decided to look at the total number of days this Millennium that we have broken records for traditional highs and lows. Forget all the min max and max min stuff for now ha. As it turns out, and to the surprise of no one, we have had more than twice as many daily high records set as we have daily lows since 2000, 78 to 34. Given our 22 year observation period and a 134 year POR, we would expect roughly 60 days of broken records a piece for each of highs and lows (120 total). So, we are actually underperforming more on the cold side than we are overperforming on the warm side. One final note, we are having a much harder time breaking daily records in the summer than in the winter, on both the high and low fronts. When it comes to lows, we have set 18 in the months of Nov thru Feb, just about what we'd expect to see. But in the months of June thru Sep we have set only 2 total! On the high side things aren't quite as disparate but still a significant difference, with 36 records set in the months of Nov thru Feb and only 18 in the months of June thru Sep. Perhaps that extra water vapor and higher dewpoints are increasing cloud cover in the summer, thereby preventing more cold nights and hotter days -- a belief I believe has been discussed here before. Food for thought. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, MAG5035 said: Okay, I got maps loading now. C,mon guys.. you make it sound like PA got blanked out. What part of that suggests “Mid-Atlantic special”? I was going to say, I didn't see that either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, MAG5035 said: Okay, I got maps loading now. C,mon guys.. you make it sound like PA got blanked out. What part of that suggests “Mid-Atlantic special”? I think looking at a snow map like this one tends to point toward the MA for the heavier snow once East of the Mountains. But I agree with your sentiment that its all fine right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: So, just to elaborate on all of the above, as my numbers brain is off on a tangent today. Not to call @Bubbler86 out or anything but it was "only" 11 days last year that set a record for highest minimum temp, as the 12th was actually January 1, 2022. We'll give Bubbs a pass for his egregious error on this one Side note, there were four such records set in 2020. All this got me thinking ( a dangerous thing) and I decided to look at the total number of days this Millennium that we have broken records for traditional highs and lows. Forget all the min max and max min stuff for now ha. As it turns out, and to the surprise of no one, we have had more than twice as many daily high records set as we have daily lows since 2000, 78 to 34. Given our 22 year observation period and a 134 year POR, we would expect roughly 60 days of broken records a piece for each of highs and lows (120 total). So, we are actually underperforming more on the cold side than we are overperforming on the warm side. One final note, we are having a much harder time breaking daily records in the summer than in the winter, on both the high and low fronts. When it comes to lows, we have set 18 in the months of Nov thru Feb, just about what we'd expect to see. But in the months of June thru Sep we have set only 2 total! On the high side things aren't quite as disparate but still a significant difference, with 36 records set in the months of Nov thru Feb and only 18 in the months of June thru Sep. Perhaps that extra water vapor and higher dewpoints are increasing cloud cover in the summer, thereby preventing more cold nights and hotter days -- a belief I believe has been discussed here before. Food for thought. Hmm, I still count 12 for the Min Max. Mar, April and May with 1 each, June with 4, Aug with 3, Dec with 2. Maybe the difference here would be if one of mine below was a "tie" vs setting a record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 I think looking at a snow map like this one tends to point toward the MA for the heavier snow once East of the Mountains. But I agree with your sentiment that its all fine right now. That has a Miller B screw zone transfer look to it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Okay, I got maps loading now. C,mon guys.. you make it sound like PA got blanked out. What part of that suggests “Mid-Atlantic special”? Looks good. Everyone has a white yard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 So if I wanted access to the euro and the off runs what’s the best route Asking for a friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: So if I wanted access to the euro and the off runs what’s the best route Asking for a friend Cash, The answer is cash. It's a pivotal point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Cash, The answer is cash. It's a pivotal point. How much cash. Can you pay by month bit coin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Hmm, I still count 12 for the Min Max. Mar, April and May with 1 each, June with 4, Aug with 3, Dec with 2. Maybe the difference here would be if one of mine below was a "tie" vs setting a record? I stand corrected! 12 is indeed the number. I will now humbly eat my plate of crow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, Superstorm said: That has a Miller B screw zone transfer look to it. . Technically, its not being depicted that way by the Euro but certainly a possibility, Not sure anything is blocking the Vort so why would it transfer vs. steam through? There is an area of precip forming off the S/E coast on the Euro so maybe its trying there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: How much cash. Can you pay by month bit coin? Pivotal is $9.99 a month regular price. $100 a year if paing in advance. Not sure about BTC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: I stand corrected! 12 is indeed the number. I will now humbly eat my plate of crow. I make numbers errors all the time so do not blame anyone for double checking me. LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Pivotal is $9.99 a month regular price. $100 a year if pain in advance. Not sure about BTC. Is pivatol the best route Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Pivotal is $9.99 a month regular price. $100 a year if pain in advance. Not sure about BTC. Most model watching, to be honest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: Most model watching, to be honest. LOL, typo fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Is pivatol the best route I think Pivotal is one of the least expensive. Weatherbell is $25 a MO I believe. Those are the two I am familiar with so maybe some other opinions, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 I think Pivotal is one of the least expensive. Weatherbell is $25 a MO I believe. Those are the two I am familiar with so maybe some other opinions, I use pivotal for $9.99 per month.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: LOL, typo fixed. A top-notch Freudian slip for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 LOOKS GOOD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Lol watch DC get late week storm too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now