Central PA - Winter 2021/2022

[Bubbler86]

So Euro, Nam and CMC show the late week system forming and some level of intensification.  GFS, Icon, UK are mostly a no. 

[Rd9108]

Just now, Wmsptwx said:

Lol watch DC get  late week storm too.

and they will still find a reason go cry 

[Wmsptwx]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

So Euro, Nam and CMC show the late week system forming and so e level of intensification.  GFS, Icon, UK are mostly a no. 

When it comes to snow I’ve found Murphy’s law applies far more than it doesn’t.

[Atomixwx]

4 minutes ago, paweather said:

LOOKS GOOD!

LMFAO

[Cashtown_Coop]

4 minutes ago, paweather said:

LOOKS GOOD!

My zeros to the border Ji call was a bingo 

[canderson]

9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

So Euro, Nam and CMC show the late week system forming and some level of intensification.  GFS, Icon, UK are mostly a no. 

I'll take the GFS and UK over them all. 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, canderson said:

I'll take the GFS and UK over them all. 

The top and bottom ranked model on that latest model ranking I saw. 

[Itstrainingtime]

21 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

When it comes to snow I’ve found Murphy’s law applies far more than it doesn’t.

How much did you get last December? Wasn't it like 27 inches?  

[Itstrainingtime]

7 minutes ago, canderson said:

I'll take the GFS and UK over them all. 

 

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The top and bottom ranked model on that latest model ranking I saw. 

UK was horrific last winter. Just awful. I'm riding the Euro/CMC combo and NOT because it shows snow over me. 

[Cashtown_Coop]

Testing Testing 

[Cashtown_Coop]

Are you allowed to post euro maps.  

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Testing Testing 

That looks tasty. 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Are you allowed to post euro maps.  

Can I share Pivotal Weather’s images with the Hobbyist Plan?

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[TimB]

1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Are you allowed to post euro maps.  

I know of someone who got banned for posting a Euro map once, if that means anything.

[Cashtown_Coop]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Can I share Pivotal Weather’s images with the Hobbyist Plan?

Yes, you may share all Pivotal Weather images freely with others, including on your non-commercial website(s) or on social media if the Pivotal Weather branding (logo or web-address) remains on the image or a citation is given. Excessive sharing of images / content mirroring via an automated process of Pivotal Weather images is strictly prohibited. For more information please visit our terms of use or contact us.

So I’m good then 

[Cashtown_Coop]

Just now, TimB84 said:

I know of someone who got banned for posting a Euro map once, if that means anything.

What the heck.   I’m not trying to make a profit from it 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Cashtown_Coop said:

So I’m good then 

You could ask them to confirm but it sounds like it.   Unsure if there are any rules here though. 

[TimB]

1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

What the heck.   I’m not trying to make a profit from it 

There’s more to the story than simply “getting banned for posting a Euro map”, so I was being facetious.

[Bubbler86]

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[Bubbler86]

Just now, TimB84 said:

There’s more to the story than simply “getting banned for posting a Euro map”, so I was being facetious.

I still miss him. 

[canderson]

5 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Are you allowed to post euro maps.  

Act first, apologize later is always my life motto! 

[canderson]

Who got banned that we miss?

[MAG5035]

15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think looking at a snow map like this one tends to point toward the MA for the heavier snow once East of the Mountains.   But I agree with your sentiment that its all fine right now.

 

Yea that looks like the 10:1 map which shows a bit heavier QPF down there. I”m using Kuchera for this without really worrying about inflated totals here because if this event occurs in non-GFS fashion it is going to be a cold storm in PA and the column looks great for good ratios for us. Harrisburg has 4.3” on Kuchera with 0.29 QPF (just under 15:1). Just looking roughly at the maps at different levels, 850 temps are -6 to -8ºC (falling) and 700mb temps across PA are a degree or two either side of -15ºC (inside the ideal -10 to -20ºC range for the snow growth layer). So with that I would say a ratio like that in C-PA is completely reasonable. Not to mention climo for C-PA in January for snow ratios is roughly 12-13:1 and this looks like an actual January type snow event. 

My personal take is the GFS is having trouble popping the wave with the cold airmass in place and presenting it’s tried and true SE bias of the last x number of years/decades. The set up and shortwave is there at 500mb like everything else and I really don’t see a huge difference other than maybe the GFS is somewhat less robust with the shortwave.. maybe. There’s a much better defined ridge out west for this than for today’s event, so with more amp in the pattern I really think something’s going to pop like what the Euro/Canadian and ensembles (even the GEFS to a degree) have been already been fairly solid on the last couple days. The immediately preceding shortwave over the Lakes that sets this up with the cold and etc probably takes the cutter option away and big question is placement of the best snowfall. Even if it did put the best precip in the 95 corridor again, this one should be more expansive with the shield. 

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Yea that looks like the 10:1 map which shows a bit heavier QPF down there. I”m using Kuchera for this without really worrying about inflated totals here because if this event occurs in non-GFS fashion it is going to be a cold storm in PA and the column looks great for good ratios for us. Harrisburg has 4.3” on Kuchera with 0.29 QPF (just under 15:1). Just looking roughly at the maps at different levels, 850 temps are -6 to -8ºC (falling) and 700mb temps across PA are a degree or two either side of -15ºC (inside the ideal -10 to -20ºC range for the snow growth layer). So with that I would say a ratio like that in C-PA is completely reasonable. Not to mention climo for C-PA in January for snow ratios is roughly 12-13:1 and this looks like an actual January type snow event. 

My personal take is the GFS is having trouble popping the wave with the cold airmass in place and presenting it’s tried and true SE bias of the last x number of years/decades. The set up and shortwave is there at 500mb like everything else and I really don’t see a huge difference other than maybe the GFS is somewhat less robust with the shortwave.. maybe. There’s a much better defined ridge out west for this than for today’s event, so with more amp in the pattern I really think something’s going to pop like what the Euro/Canadian and ensembles (even the GEFS to a degree) have been already been fairly solid on the last couple days. The immediately preceding shortwave over the Lakes that sets this up with the cold and etc probably takes the cutter option away and big question is placement of the best snowfall. Even if it did put the best precip in the 95 corridor again, this one should be more expansive with the shield. 

Yes, mine was 10:1 and I saw yours was Kuch.   I usually just post the 10:1 maps when something is that far out but in this case I more posted it to say why I think paweather called it a MA special.  He was looking at the Surface maps and the darker blues are down there along with the heavier snow on 10:1 terms.  I think the important missing piece here is the chance for this to pop as you say.  Outside the GFS no go scenario, the Euro scenario is probably worst case if the low does form...it could be better. 

[Bubbler86]

@sauss06, missed seeing the warm temp reports from Central Cumberland this weekend.   You probably hit 63-64 right? 

[Wmsptwx]

Where is Sauss? He’s like my favorite poster ever.

[Wmsptwx]

Is farm show on this year?

[paweather]

1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said:

Is farm show on this year?

YES

[MAG5035]

8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yes, mine was 10:1 and I saw yours was Kuch.   I usually just post the 10:1 maps when something is that far out but in this case I more posted it to say why I think paweather called it a MA special.  He was looking at the Surface maps and the darker blues are down there along with the heavier snow on 10:1 terms.  I think the important missing piece here is the chance for this to pop as you say.  Outside the GFS no go scenario, the Euro scenario is probably worst case if the low does form...it could be better. 

Euro didn’t really even have all that much QPF either. The 10:1 DC area vs LSV was more like a 4-6” vs 2-4” event. That’s another thing to keep an eye on is the QPF aspect. Last night’s Euro was one of the biggest QPF runs despite having decent but not heavy events on some of the other runs. I could see this going either way, being a run of the mill quick hitting wave of snow or a more significant widespread event that merits a NESIS ranking. I just don’t buy the GFS non-event, but yea I sure would feel alot better if it got on board soon lol. Still in the mid-range too, which always has these shenanigans. It’s not that far out though really being at D4. We’ll probably be able to have some hot NAM takes this evening. 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

Euro didn’t really even have all that much QPF either. The 10:1 DC area vs LSV was more like a 4-6” vs 2-4” event. That’s another thing to keep an eye on is the QPF aspect. Last night’s Euro was one of the biggest QPF runs despite having decent but not heavy events on some of the other runs. I could see this going either way, being a run of the mill quick hitting wave of snow or a more significant widespread event that merits a NESIS ranking. I just don’t buy the GFS non-event, but yea I sure would feel alot better if it got on board soon lol. Still in the mid-range too, which always has these shenanigans. It’s not that far out though really being at D4. We’ll probably be able to have some hot NAM takes this evening. 

LOL.  The Nam needs to get on with the nammings before it's retired.