Cashtown_Coop Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: 17z....more of a central VA crusher. Basically no snow in pa. If used right I think the hrrr is a good model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Even though I don't want to, I think I'm going to take down my outside Christmas lights. Doing it with temp of 60 degrees is too hard to pass up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: If used right I think the hrrr is a good model It's a trender I think. Not great for qpf but it sometimes does well with spotting changes. Apparently it's being retired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, Bubbler86 said: It's a trender I think. Not great for qpf but it sometimes does well with spotting changes. Apparently it's being retired. Really. Dang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: Really. Dang. That is what I read in MA. Along with the NAM. A singular entity replacing them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Wonder when the last time on Jan 3 Richmond had a foot more of snow than MDT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 12z Euro looks good for Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Speaking of short/near term models. Here’s the 12z HREF for posterity. I know CTP utilizes it and pretty sure it was mentioned in the AFD this morning (not being much help at the time). It seems pretty clear across the model spectrum at this point that 8-12” or so is a pretty good possibility in the axis of heaviest snow. Gonna be important to keep an eye on surface low track. This model put this swath out with a surface low track hitting the coast at the OBX near Hatteras. GFS was a VA Beach track and Euro was pretty close to that too…big difference for the southern tier of our subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 61 here now. Fantastic day! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 It’s 37 and cold and windy in lycoming county. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Part of me hopes Richmond gets it and DC gets 2-4 lol they’ll lose their minds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: It’s 37 and cold and windy in lycoming county. 59 and partly sunny here - weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 All the way to the border. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 46 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Speaking of short/near term models. Here’s the 12z HREF for posterity. I know CTP utilizes it and pretty sure it was mentioned in the AFD this morning (not being much help at the time). It seems pretty clear across the model spectrum at this point that 8-12” or so is a pretty good possibility in the axis of heaviest snow. Gonna be important to keep an eye on surface low track. This model put this swath out with a surface low track hitting the coast at the OBX near Hatteras. GFS was a VA Beach track and Euro was pretty close to that too…big difference for the southern tier of our subforum. If I were CTP, I would definitely do advisories for the S and SE sides of Adams, York and Lancaster considering the timing of back to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 18Z HRRR not really doing much for PA still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: 18Z HRRR not really doing much for PA still. DC right on edge in some of these. Northern MD may be a screw zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, Wmsptwx said: DC right on edge in some of these. Northern MD may be a screw zone. If not for the GFS and a bit of the Euro, we would probably not even be talking about this as the rest of the modeling is a nothing burger for PA. (Unless someone wanted to do some actually Met work and not model reading like I am doing today!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: If I were CTP, I would definitely do advisories for the S and SE sides of Adams, York and Lancaster considering the timing of back to work. I certainly don't envy them - totally conceivable that no one north of the M/D line sees a flake out of this. Then again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: I certainly don't envy them - totally conceivable that no one north of the M/D line sees a flake out of this. Then again... Definitely, both possibilities. But can you ignore the GFS and the Euro? If they do not budge at 18Z, I am not sure how you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Definitely, both possibilities. But can you ignore the GFS and the Euro? If they do not budge at 18Z, I am not sure how you can. How about 25 mile bump north. About time for a namming as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 18Z Nam is no where near S Central PA again. Not much for the Northern MA either. How many models are we ignoring now? Href, Nam, HRRR, Rap, Icon. Throw them out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: 18Z Nam is no where near S Central PA again. Not much for the Northern MA either. How many models are we ignoring now? Href, Nam, HRRR, Rap, Icon. Throw them out! All crappy lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: All crappy lol Hard to call them all crappy when the event is 12-18 hours away. Not exactly common practice to throw out the Meso's this close. LOL. Global mania going on here. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Hard to call them all crappy when the event is 12-18 hours away. Not exactly common practice to throw out the Meso's this close. LOL. Global mania going on here. LOL. Yeah I’m joking. Looking like a DC special. Congrats to them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Global mania going on here. LOL. Globalmania runnin' ****in wild, brother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: Yeah I’m joking. Looking like a DC special. Congrats to them Oh I know you are, that is why I put the LOL's in. If the GFS does not budge south its going to be real interesting for CTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Oh I know you are, that is why I put the LOL's in. If the GFS does not budge south its going to be real interesting for CTP. If storm track gets closer to coast and stronger we can hope for more precip to push north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Atomixwx said: Globalmania runnin' ****in wild, brother. Sunday, Sunday, Sunday! At the Farm Show Arena...see the GFS squash the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Friend is supposed to drive from HBG to Georgia tomorrow. I just told her that’s a terrible idea unless she enjoys driving her Mustang(!) in a snowstorm along the hills of Virginia, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 37F here in Milford, was 50F this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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