Blizzard of 93 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Kuchera ratio gets 6 inch to Westminster. About 4 or so here . A couple inches to York . Yes, this is the Kuchera map. 2 inches up to Harrisburg this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 I feel bad for the tidewater folks if they get all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Question for everyone… What would stop this from coming further north? I don’t see a pressing High. I don’t see too much confluence. I don’t see an interfering Lakes low. We still have over 1 day to bring this another 50 or more miles north of the GFS is right. Progressive pattern was my big thing with this feature and it still is but I was not expecting the shortwave responsible for this to get stronger like it has. I expected a much less defined one in the wake of the current wave. There’s probably a cap at how far up this can get but I’ll eat the humble pie if the LSV does end up with a decent event. I already accepted sitting this one out in the cold in hopes of the 1/7 event after literally having it rain off an on the entire 6 days since it snowed Monday. But I’m still a snow weenie at heart too so this 1/3 one’s probably gonna reel me in just enough to hoping to see it get something up this way haha. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Progressive pattern was my big thing with this feature and it still is but I was not expecting the shortwave responsible for this to get stronger like it has. I expected a much less defined one in the wake of the current wave. There’s probably a cap at how far up this can get but I’ll eat the humble pie if the LSV does end up with a decent event. I already accepted sitting this one out in the cold in hopes of the 1/7 event after literally having it rain off an on the entire 6 days since it snowed Monday. But I’m still a snow weenie at heart too so this 1/3 one’s probably gonna reel me in just enough to hoping to see it get something up this way haha. I agree, The pattern is progressive. There is no “kicker” system to influence the 1/3 storm. The next 24 hours are going to be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I know the focus has shifted back to tomorrow night and Monday, but what happened to the 1/7 storm? Totally out to sea south of us. I thought the GFS was consistently looking good for the LSV later in the week. BTW...so far today I have recorded 0.77" of rain to start off 2022. Looks like there will be another accumulating round over the next few hours. Last night's runs gave me an average of 1.2" of rainfall. I was thinking a little earlier that the rainfall was a complete bust yet again, but it's looking like a decent shot at reaching 1" by the time it ends tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: I know the focus has shifted back to tomorrow night and Monday, but what happened to the 1/7 storm? Totally out to sea south of us. I thought the GFS was consistently looking good for the LSV later in the week. BTW...so far today I have recorded 0.77" of rain to start off 2022. Looks like there will be another accumulating round over the next few hours. Last night's runs gave me an average of 1.2" of rainfall. I was thinking a little earlier that the rainfall was a complete bust yet again, but it's looking like a decent shot at reaching 1" by the time it ends tomorrow. The 0z GEFS & 0z Canadian are still looking great for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 0z GFS trend is our friend in the LSV for Monday! If this keeps up, it's going to be an I-81 special, which I don't really need. My Jeep is acting up, pulling hard to the right from the rear when I hit a bump, and especially on ice. On Monday morning it's going to the shop that installed my lift kit to see what's causing it. It could just be an alignment issue, or it could be something in the suspension. Either way I need to safely get it there AND have them test drive it to get to experience the "feel", so I'm hoping Monday is dry, and the Thursday/Friday storm produces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 14 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: I know the focus has shifted back to tomorrow night and Monday, but what happened to the 1/7 storm? Totally out to sea south of us. I thought the GFS was consistently looking good for the LSV later in the week. BTW...so far today I have recorded 0.77" of rain to start off 2022. Looks like there will be another accumulating round over the next few hours. Last night's runs gave me an average of 1.2" of rainfall. I was thinking a little earlier that the rainfall was a complete bust yet again, but it's looking like a decent shot at reaching 1" by the time it ends tomorrow. The GFS has been pretty inconsistent with it the last model cycle or so. Going a little further back to yesterday’s 12z run, it was a full blown lakes cutter. The GEFS has shown it more consistently. The 0z still has a 2”+ mean over most of PA despite the complete miss on the op. 0z Canadian’s coming in with a nice 4-8” type snowfall statewide. The earlier 18z Euro ensemble that goes out to 144 and saw most of the event also was in good shape for a widespread snowfall. Still a medium range deal so I think it’s still looking good all things considered. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: The GFS has been pretty inconsistent with it the last model cycle or so. Going a little further back to yesterday’s 12z run, it was a full blown lakes cutter. The GEFS has shown it more consistently. The 0z still has a 2”+ mean over most of PA despite the complete miss on the op. 0z Canadian’s coming in with a nice 4-8” type snowfall statewide. The earlier 18z Euro ensemble that goes out to 144 and saw most of the event also was in good shape for a widespread event. Still a medium range deal so I think it’s still looking good all things considered. Thanks, Mag. Appreciate the clarification! If the cold push stays on track for what comes after 1/7, it looks like we might have our first sub-freezing high temp of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Track about the same on the 0z vs 18z Euro. Precip extent does sneak across the M/D line on the 0z getting an inch or so into southern York/Lancaster. Best snowfall axis about the same but big difference in top end with a more GFS-like 10”+ swath now (not as expansive as the GFS though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Is late week trending to be out to sea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Is late week trending to be out to sea? Hardly, unless you only looked at the GFS op tonight. New Euro’s coming in a bit high and tight for the LSV’s liking this run and best snowbands in western/central PA. This is very much still in play. I used 10:1 for that. The Kuchera makes that 6”+ swath a 10”+ one.. which is possible because the snowy side of that system is likely to have a cold column and good surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 hours ago, MAG5035 said: Hardly, unless you only looked at the GFS op tonight. New Euro’s coming in a bit high and tight for the LSV’s liking this run and best snowbands in western/central PA. This is very much still in play. I used 10:1 for that. The Kuchera makes that 6”+ swath a 10”+ one.. which is possible because the snowy side of that system is likely to have a cold column and good surface temps. The 0z Euro Control shows a nice compromise between the GFS southeast solution & the inland running 0z Euro Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Meanwhile, in the short term, the 3z SREF mean really juiced up for tomorrow’s chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 This is fairly bold for CTP for 5 days out. Thursday Night Snow likely, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: This is fairly bold for CTP for 5 days out. Thursday Night Snow likely, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Here is CTP’s comment on Thursday night’s event. After that, things are beginning to look a little more interesting. The extended models are suggesting that an area of low pressure will develop over the southeastern United States and impact some portion of the Mid-Atlantic region late Thursday into Thursday night. This is still several days away, and the forecasted track of this system will undoubtedly fluctuate between now and then. However, with chilly air in place, we could be looking at an impactful winter weather event somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic region late next week. There is still plenty of time to monitor how things will unfold with this event, so stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Here is CTP’s take for tomorrow. The LSV is still in the game. .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Chance for snowfall for late tonight/Mon AM for the far SE is looking a little better. Latest 06Z guidance and 03Z SREF yield an inch or two for far SErn York Co and srn Lanc Co. Will think about nudging the PoPs up and get serious about adding an inch or two for accum there. Still, forecasting the northern extent of the snow is going to be a bear. Will continue to broadbrush the PoPs there, with high chc on PoPs in the srn halves of those counties. Would not be surprised if the dayshift were to nudge things into likely PoPs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 The 6z Euro had another bump north. Warning level snow now gets to far southern York & Lancaster counties this run. Large difference from 6z today (top) vs 12z yesterday (bottom) on the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Here is the 6z Euro Kuchera map. Is another 50 mile bump north possible today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 24 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is the 6z Euro Kuchera map. Is another 50 mile bump north possible today? Long range HRRR supports this look. I had mentioned last week that the timing on this is uncanny. Hitting back to work. Euro playing catch up though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Meanwhile, in the short term, the 3z SREF mean really juiced up for tomorrow’s chance. If only we could put more faith in SREF's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: If only we could put more faith in SREF's. It actually just improved at 9z a bit & Harrisburg gets 4 inches of snow this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Further shifts aside, and as suggested last week regarding keeping an eye on this system, its refreshing to see things "happen as they normally do" regarding north shifts etc. Of late, it has been challenging in that regard. This one is riding a boundary....clean and simple ...lol. Would be great to see a "simple" pattern get established before we head back to SLP's heading for the central basin. It's been a convoluted mess tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: It actually just improved at 9z a bit & Harrisburg gets 4 inches of snow this run. Will be interesting to see if we get another norther tick...and then a bump south. It'd be just like the good ol' days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: Will be interesting to see if we get another norther tick...and then a bump south. It'd be just like the good ol' days. We still have 12z, 18z, 0z & even 6z for final adjustments. I am not expecting for the LSV to get near the jackpot, but an Advisory event for the LSV would not need much of a bump today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: We still have 12z, 18z, 0z & even 6z for final adjustments. I am not expecting for the LSV to get near the jackpot, but an Advisory event for the LSV would not need much of a bump today. Sterling has watches posted for strip of counties one below the mason dixon. That would convert their top tier to advisories. It’s close 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 12Z HRRR actually took a slight step backwards for us up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: 12Z HRRR actually took a slight step backwards for us up here. Toss it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: Toss it LOL. Looking for trends. Nam took a sizeable step backwards but the Nam is excluded from getting much press from me right now. It did terrible in predicting the evolution of this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: LOL. Looking for trends. Nam took a sizeable step backwards but the Nam is excluded from getting much press from me right now. It did terrible in predicting the evolution of this situation. Very true, but still frustrating to see it go the wrong way to start 12z. We can’t afford backwards steps on the northern fringes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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