Bubbler86 Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: 18z Euro doesn’t run until 7pm Ah, for some reason I was thinking 6PM. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 21 minutes ago, pasnownut said: verbatim, that might be a tad much, but I it sure would be awesome. I'll take 1 or 2" and be giddy. Maybe the Monday storm will end up like the Major snowstorm last December? Within 3 days it went from a jackpot in MD/southern PA to a jackpot in northern PA/central New England. I don’t think this will happen this time, but it’s possible to end up with an Advisory event in southern PA if this continues as the GFS shows the current trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Farm Show begins Jan 8 fwiw …. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 14 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: I mean swath-wise with the axis of heaviest snowfall is certainly a hat-tip toward the GFS when considering what the Euro/Canadian has. The 12z Canadian indicated a lot of heavy sleet where the heavy deform bands presumably would be in central/eastern VA. GFS still NW with it’s axis vs those two and very heavy with snowfall and the 18z GEFS largely backs it up it appears. The Euro/Canadian take is still a pretty big snowstorm for that area but 18z GFS evolution is a big ticket snowstorm for the Mid-Atlantic region. 12 and 18z NAM today has been straight up uninterested in any of this which I’d imagine is probably wrong to at least some degree considering the rest of the guidance suite and associated ensembles and the fairly robust shortwave in question even with limited amplification opportunities. So at any rate, obviously the middle of the road is the best way to approach this as there’s a lot of questions to resolve. If this indeed ends up a deeper wave and puts good precip into the Mid-Atlantic region, big question probably is going to be if there’s gonna be a changeover to overcome and how long it takes where biggest snow totals are being presented, which comes down to timing and how well the cold actually progresses. LSV shouldn’t have that problem by that time, but northern extent is now the big question for some in this subforum. I still say I don’t expect a lot if it does make it into the southern tier LSV, but we shall see. I’ve often looked at them but it is important to still pay attention to QPF maps, especially in fringe situations like the LSV is going to be possibly be positioned in for this 1/3 event. Thanks. It does seem doubtful that the Nam scores a total coup here. Preponderance of "evidence" against it. So even if this ends up being a Short Pump winner and DCA gets little to nothing, the GFS still gets some credit for being consistent in really being the only model to even show that up until the last 48 hours I believe. The Euro had very interest in significant snow even at 0Z this AM. I suspect the Nam folds in a few hours. (Edit-CMC also showed Sig Snow at around the same time as the GFS but then backed off it on the next run.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 That’s a loooot of rain on the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, canderson said: That’s a loooot of rain on the radar. HRRR has another .75 to 1.25" for some of the LSV. As training noted earlier, not a guarantee as he lost out on some this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 18z Euro v. 12z Euro, a jog north on extent with accumulating (1 inch or so into DC now) but fairly similar with amounts/heavy axis placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: 18z Euro v. 12z Euro, a jog north on extent with accumulating (1 inch or so into DC now) but fairly similar with amounts/heavy axis placement. Slight bump north on the 18z Euro with the northern extent of the Monday precip. Still some work to do for the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Slight bump north on the 18z Euro with the northern extent of the Monday precip. Still some work to do for the LSV. It’s coming north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I’ll take nothing for Monday for a Foot of Friday 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, Superstorm said: It’s coming north . I’m more looking forward to the better chance for us on the 6th/7th, but I certainly wouldn’t mind bumping our way to an Advisory on Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: NMB Srefs with a huge shift north According to someone else Let’s do it Monday! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 hour ago, canderson said: That’s a loooot of rain on the radar. .67 here today in Marysville as of 8pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 .67 here today in Marysville as of 8pm..71 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: .67 here today in Marysville as of 8pm. You’re loving that weather station aren’t ya? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Sref ( Mean) fwiw. That has got to hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 33 minutes ago, canderson said: You’re loving that weather station aren’t ya? Yes! I got it set up a couple of days ago and today is the first precip to measure. This should keep me active here year round! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 18z EPS is still looking good for the 6th/7th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 25 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 18z EPS is still looking good for the 6th/7th. We got this Blizz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Hopefully the Srefs is a precursor for a nice Nam shift . More often then not that's the case over the years . I thought the Sref physics was upgraded but not 100% sure . Still a B model lol but I'll take anything in my court at this point . GFS just told NAM to get its head back in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 hours ago, paweather said: I’ll take nothing for Monday for a Foot of Friday Me too... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Voyager said: Me too... Thanks man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 .79" of rain here so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 40 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Lol...that's a 100 mile shift . Not a surprise either . I'll take another 50 mile shift at 6z then another 50 at 12z will be interesting to see how much more movement is possible. NO hp to stop it. Verbatim it closed off again at 0z, so yeah, it might be able to conjur up some of its own cold air. At some point we'll either run outta time, or room.... Good news is we find out in abt 48 hrs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 Nam off to a bad start this "snow season". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 0z GFS trend is our friend in the LSV for Monday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Advisory level event for the LSV this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Kuchera ratio gets 6 inch to Westminster. About 4 or so here . A couple inches to York . Question for everyone… What would stop this from coming further north? I don’t see a pressing High. I don’t see too much confluence. I don’t see an interfering Lakes low. We still have over 1 day to bring this another 50 or more miles north of the GFS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Dang...tempted to stay up for the Euro now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Here is the full view of the 0z GFS for Monday morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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