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Jan 16-17th Boom or Bust


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3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I assume it's some in house graphics. He just had the big L going almost over Memphis to Nashville to Cincy.

Broadcast stations used to use the paid RPM model "in-house" but I think it was retired.  Wonder if it was replaced or most broadcast mets relying upon the stuff we look at.

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4 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I've never seen one of these Miller B transfer types in my location, so will be interesting here. The more amped it is, the more it really wants to run an 850 circulation up the eastern valley. 

It's not just temps either. Massive dryslot runs right up the gut of Eastern TN as the transfer occurs.  Deform band crushes to the west. So the way I see it not only are we fighting temps but also the unavoidable downsloping that will probably show up even more pronounced on high res. 
 

For Eastern TN I wouldn't be hopeful for much action at all this weekend unless we get a decent track shift.

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21 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

18z Euro moved north a little

Screenshot_20220113-191407_Chrome~2.jpg

I just can not figure out wx forecasters.  Have they lost their minds like the whole govt. has?  Channel 5 WTVF here in Nashville is saying 1-3” & the plateau trace to an 1”.  What model shows that for the plateau?  We wonder why no one believes them when they say severe wx. Here is why.  I would love to “Here’s your sign”.

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9 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

It's not just temps either. Massive dryslot runs right up the gut of Eastern TN as the transfer occurs.  Deform band crushes to the west. So the way I see it not only are we fighting temps but also the unavoidable downsloping that will probably show up even more pronounced on high res. 
 

For Eastern TN I wouldn't be hopeful for much action at all this weekend unless we get a decent track shift.

Yeah, if it doesn't trend away from that it sure is not looking good for the great Valley. Need that shift back south and east.

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5 minutes ago, Silas Lang said:

There is really nothing to "force it" back south and east, correct? Does the low simply need to be weaker and less amped?

 

Needs to outrun the energy behind it entering the northern plains...it is ever so slightly tugging on our system

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I know a lot can change by Saturday evening but does anyone have an explanation for why East TN looks to strike out again on a good snow for their third time in a row?? Bad luck every time? I can’t help but think climate change is impacting this region in the last several years. It’s been so long since most of our region has a good widespread 8 inch + snow. 

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13 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, if it doesn't trend away from that it sure is not looking good for the great Valley. Need that shift back south and east.

At ktri I havent been able to get myself too high for this for all the freaking reasons you mention, man we are really up against the big 3 here (dry slot, downslope, warm nose), anyone of which could wreck us.

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I know a lot can change by Saturday evening but does anyone have an explanation for why East TN looks to strike out again on a good snow for their third time in a row?? Bad luck every time? I can’t help but think climate change is impacting this region in the last several years. It’s been so long since most of our region has a good widespread 8 inch + snow. 

I live in N Knox Co and the last two years I’ve exceed my yearly average for snow. So far this year I have picked up 4 inches from two storms. A widespread 8” snow in the East Tennessee valley is extremely rare.


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8 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:


I live in N Knox Co and the last two years I’ve exceed my yearly average for snow. So far this year I have picked up 4 inches from two storms. A widespread 8” snow in the East Tennessee valley is extremely rare.


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I can remember we used to average a big snow like that back every few years in the 70s, 80s, and 90s. I’m pretty sure our last big event like that was 98. Just weird we haven’t had one since the 2000s. 

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Is it the track of the 850 that is causing such a discrepancy in totals for the Valley versus Middle TN?  

Yes. Looks like it’s in a good position in Mississippi to Alabama but rides a little NE to north Georgia. A ideal track would be from Birmingham to Atlanta or something around that area. 50 miles south of where it is would be really nice


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7 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:


Yes. Looks like it’s in a good position in Mississippi to Alabama but rides a little NE to north Georgia. A ideal track would be from Birmingham to Atlanta or something around that area. 50 miles south of where it is would be really nice


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The current look isn’t bad to me, it’s just knowing the dreaded nw shift always happens right at the end that’s tough.

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1 hour ago, fountainguy97 said:

It's not just temps either. Massive dryslot runs right up the gut of Eastern TN as the transfer occurs.  Deform band crushes to the west. So the way I see it not only are we fighting temps but also the unavoidable downsloping that will probably show up even more pronounced on high res. 
 

For Eastern TN I wouldn't be hopeful for much action at all this weekend unless we get a decent track shift.

The way it is modeled right now, the southeast flow at 850mb is really going to be difficult for us for awhile. In these CAD situation in WNC, it usually takes a really long time for the flow to become more favorable for us. A lot working against us at the moment. 

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1 hour ago, Hurricaneguy said:

I know a lot can change by Saturday evening but does anyone have an explanation for why East TN looks to strike out again on a good snow for their third time in a row?? Bad luck every time? I can’t help but think climate change is impacting this region in the last several years. It’s been so long since most of our region has a good widespread 8 inch + snow. 

Unfortunately it's not really that surprising, nor has it been for quite a while. When you figure in warm nose, dry slotting and the dreaded "cold chasing rain" that always seems to plague parts of the valley (not to mention the various micro climates and the dreaded "Eastman Dome"), big hitters are usually a gamble in our area. And each part of the valley has its own set of unique circumstances that factor into the results of each system. Basically, a lot of things have to go right for us to get a wide spread "big dog."

I'm an old guy (well, 57) and remember when 6" snows were the norm, not the exception. And while yes, wide spread 8" snows are rare these days, Kingsport had over 9" on 9 DEC 2018. My advice is hang on, don't live and die by the next model run (not saying you are, just saying to folks in general) and enjoy whatever comes. Yes, we may miss out but someone in our forum area will probably jackpot with this one. I'm happy for them and know that eventually we'll get our turn.  Of course I was 29 when the Blizzard of 93 hit, so I've got no right to hope for snow the rest of my life! ;) 

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