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East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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wdrag
wdrag

Okay, I understand Moderators general hands off.  Thank you all for your strong support. I have a couple of goals in mind when threads are started. To ensure an impact storm occurs or is real cl

jm1220
jm1220

Geez, so conservative. We can always bump up if needed. 

forkyfork
forkyfork

how hard were the impact tremors when you typed this?

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

meh, i guess we better get the arks.

The GFS track would create serious coastal flooding and strong winds. Timing around Full Moon. 

If it is gonna cut then I hope it keeps trending west. The storm could be a wave breaking event that flips the NAO/AO negative and makes future systems more favorable for us. 

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
Just now, MJO812 said:

Remember when people thought suppression was the concern ?

Its possible this thing is still going to dig more over the WRN Gulf.  If you ask me the pattern is conducive at 500 for that.  If it digs more there however then the evolution is slower and its still probably going to come up the coast along or just inland

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Tatamy

Tatamy

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs more amped

I thought the pattern would be conducive for a nice coastal storm.  I guess wrong. 

61deaf8592ec0.png

This is morphing from a coastal to an inland runner to an apps runner - and it’s not done yet.  The part that remains somewhat interesting is the CAD ahead of the storm east of the spine of the appalachians.  Whether this continues and to what degree is an open question. 

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dseagull

dseagull

Posted
Posted

The ocean storm and lack of confluence are the primary drivers of this scenario, correct? 

Could a faster and deeper SW bring this storm further off the coast?  I'm trying to digest and learn exactly how we went from squashed storm suppression to inland runner over 12 hours yesterday.  This wasnt a sampling issue. 

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, dseagull said:

The ocean storm and lack of confluence are the primary drivers of this scenario, correct? 

Could a faster and deeper SW bring this storm further off the coast?  I'm trying to digest and learn exactly how we went from squashed storm suppression to inland runner over 12 hours yesterday.  This wasnt a sampling issue. 

It was a quick reversal which is very weird for the models.

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Shades

Shades

Posted
Posted

FWIW There's a difference between model watching/prognosticating and tracking a storm. There is no storm atm. We are tracking models and it's important to establish that before making any calls involving absolutes. Just a word to the wise, and I do consider ya'll wise. 

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