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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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5 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

My snowpack survived our mini torch but is probably down to 2-3 inches. There are some small bare spots in drainage areas but the remaining snow will freeze into an ice sheet tonight. 

Really demonstrates your areas struggles. I’m still sitting on 7”. Huge mounds of iceberg snow. No bare spots. This was today

9705D367-2535-451D-979B-ECDBD0C0B012.jpeg

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They still ain't buying it... HWO BUF:

On Thursday a storm system is forecast to track across or just to our west of the region. This may bring a warm weather resulting in snow melt and a half inch to inch of rainfall. There is a potentialf for flooding from high flows, ice jams, or a combination of both. Strong gusty winds are also possible. This far off there remains considerable uncertainty in the track of this system.

 

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40 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

My snowpack survived our mini torch but is probably down to 2-3 inches. There are some small bare spots in drainage areas but the remaining snow will freeze into an ice sheet tonight. 

With being further west and closer to the lake, I have had a bit more than you. I have 4 to 5 inches left.

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4 minutes ago, vortmax said:

They still ain't buying it... HWO BUF:

On Thursday a storm system is forecast to track across or just to our west of the region. This may bring a warm weather resulting in snow melt and a half inch to inch of rainfall. There is a potentialf for flooding from high flows, ice jams, or a combination of both. Strong gusty winds are also possible. This far off there remains considerable uncertainty in the track of this system.

 

They love forecasting storms moving west. If this was going to be a snowstorm they wouldn't even have a hwo out yet

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13 minutes ago, vortmax said:

They still ain't buying it... HWO BUF:

On Thursday a storm system is forecast to track across or just to our west of the region. This may bring a warm weather resulting in snow melt and a half inch to inch of rainfall. There is a potentialf for flooding from high flows, ice jams, or a combination of both. Strong gusty winds are also possible. This far off there remains considerable uncertainty in the track of this system.

 

That’s from 5 am 

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3 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Locally, guidance is starting to look a little better for Monday/Tuesday, wonder if the NWS will start to change their tune a little lol

Looks like they did just that..

Monday night into Tuesday, and pinned between two areas of high
pressure, a lake aggregate trough sets up stretching from Lake
Superior southeast over Lake Ontario. This will allow a fairly
strong convergent flow to set up down the long axis of Lake Ontario
with the possibility for accumulating lake effect snows across far
northern Cayuga, western Oswego and southwestern Jefferson counties.
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Off Lake Erie...

While there is significant ice cover on the lake as a whole, most of
the open water is at the northeast end over the deep water west of
Chautauqua County. There is likely more than enough open water and
thin ice to support a lake response. The best setup will occur this
evening when westerly flow aligns beneath the shallow inversion.
This should allow for a band of lake effect snow to develop over
southern Erie and western Wyoming counties, including some of the
more distant Buffalo Southtowns. This is primarily based on pattern
recognition, most of the high-res model guidance is likely under-
forecasting this potential due to the impacts of observed ice cover
on model physics. The band of snow will weaken and drift south into
far southern Erie and western Chautauqua counties overnight as
boundary layer flow weakens and becomes more sheared. Sunday expect
snow showers to focus close to the lakeshore of Chautauqua and far
southern Erie counties in very weak flow.

As far as accumulations go, expect 3-5" across portions of Southern
Erie County this afternoon through tonight, and 2-3" across western
Chautauqua County. The forecast snow is falling over too long of a
time period to reach advisory criteria. That said, if the band
starts to organize better than expected this evening headlines may
be required. Ice cover on Lake Erie is a wildcard late in the
season, and wind today may be moving the ice and altering the
location and size of open water areas.

Looks like its setting up on WSW flow

WUNIDS_map?num=12&type=N0Q&mapx=400&mapy

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4 hours ago, CNY_WX said:

My snowpack survived our mini torch but is probably down to 2-3 inches. There are some small bare spots in drainage areas but the remaining snow will freeze into an ice sheet tonight. 

About 6" of avg snowdepth here still though we've lost over 1/2 of it in the past few days. Looks like most of the rest of it will be gone other than snowpiles over the next week.  Sigh.

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3 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

BGM is hilarious. The models are trending further SE and snowier for the end of the week, yet they made temps higher and reduced snow chances. I noticed the weekend crew there tends to do this though.

I'm at 56" of total snowfall for the season and it's looking like we will struggle to reach even 70" at this rate, unless we nickel and dime our way there over the next month. Which is what i suspect happens.

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1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

18z GFS keeps with the cutter idea. Hard to bet against it. Something better give soon. 

It's within 5 days now and the shortwave is south of mainland Alaska. Time has run out with how models are today.

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