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January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Really?  Cuz February is the snowiest month..so I respectfully disagree with you on that one.  

 

Just speaking for my location, we are fine here..very easy to reach normal snowfall, with two weeks of January left, and all of February (the snowiest month) to go. But I’m speaking for here.    
 

Just because some of us aren’t locked into the doom and gloom that others are, doesn’t make us wrong either.  I completely  understand, it could all go south and we rat.  That can happen.  However, I’m choosing not to believe that currently, with what I see presented before me at this time.

I realize that others are not in as good of shape, and can understand the frustration completely.  When we had to listen how great feb 2015 was out east..it wasn’t all that spectacular over here(still good), but no record breaker... not by a long shot. So I get it. 
 

 

I'm not frustrated. I had exceedingly low expectations for this winter. The only winter that I had lower expectations for was 15-16..

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1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I'm not frustrated. I had exceedingly low expectations for this winter. The only winter that I had lower expectations for was 15-16..

Ok cool. I understand.
 

I’m choosing to think we end up at least at normal snowfall here. with two weeks of January to go,  and all of February to go, and who knows what first half of March can bring?     That’s my expectation.  

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

Ok cool. I understand.
 

I’m choosing to think we end up at least at normal snowfall here. with two weeks of January to go,  and all of February to go, and who knows what first half of March can bring?     That’s my expectation.  

We are going to need 50 inches of snow to approach normal here...

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He is the chief met in a major Boston market and just published a popular book, I think he's good in that respect. May just be that he feels this winter blows.

Do you know the title ?

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29 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Really?  Cuz February is the snowiest month..so I respectfully disagree with you on that one.  

 

Just speaking for my location, we are fine here..very easy to reach normal snowfall, with two weeks of January left, and all of February (the snowiest month) to go. But I’m speaking for here.    
 

Just because some of us aren’t locked into the doom and gloom that others are, doesn’t make us wrong either.  I completely  understand, it could all go south and we rat.  That can happen.  However, I’m choosing not to believe that currently, with what I see presented before me at this time.

I realize that others are not in as good of shape, and can understand the frustration completely.  When we had to listen how great feb 2015 was out east..it wasn’t all that spectacular over here(still good), but no record breaker... not by a long shot. So I get it. 
 

 

Yea, I never implied that it would be a tall task for your area to hit climo....clearly stated that.

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If you actually think about what he said, its not a big leap of faith. He simply noted that the PV is nearing record strength in latter January, which it is, and that that is often correlated to a milder February. Not exactly a detail oriented long forecast, nor a way to drum up hits from a group of weather enthusiasts craving blizzards.

Ugh....I need to do something else.

You ENSO folks could also take a little pride away from a mild end/early spring.   'Less I'm mistaken, that tends to be the case with La Ninas.

I do think the gradient rich hemisphere and faster flow that causes ... skews some of these longer term type telecons, but ...  here's then thing, and there's no real away around this being that it's rooted in fact:   The last 6 six years of Feb and Mar's have too often hosted big, and I mean approaching ludicrous warm week(s) event(s)...  three of which were even 80+ prior to the Equixox, and barely out of the solar nadir of Mid or late February. 

They just slip below the care-radar, because some of those years also featured decent winter storms after then fact as blue bombies..etc.  But those warm ups have happened regardless of ENSO states ... and they were alarming.  When we are enjoying 79.4 F at 4:30 pm driving home from work on February 20th, we don't think of that as a "bad" but it's like +34 ...

Sorry babbling .. .my point is, those don't appear to be driven by ENSO ... but rather, just seem to be happening with greater frequency.  Won't go into why - that elephant is what it is... But, since La Nina favors early mild runs anyway, I wonder what happens if/when the former background is occurring during an El Nina year that is actually attempting to look La Nina for a change... Just a wonder.

 

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You ENSO folks could also take a little pride away from a mild end/early spring.   'Less I'm mistaken, that tends to be the case with La Ninas.

I do think the gradient rich hemisphere and faster flow that causes ... skews some of these longer term type telecons, but ...  here's then thing, and there's no real away around this being that it's rooted in fact:   The last 6 six years of Feb and Mar's have too often hosted big, and I mean approaching ludicrous warm week(s) event(s)...  three of which were even 80+ prior to the Equixox, and barely out of the solar nadir of Mid or late February. 

They just slip below the care-radar, because some of those years also featured decent winter storms after then fact as blue bombies..etc.  But those warm ups have happened regardless of ENSO states ... and they were alarming.  When we are enjoying 79.4 F at 4:30 pm driving home from work on February 20th, we don't think of that as a "bad" but it's like +34 ...

Sorry babbling .. .my point is, those don't appear to be driven by ENSO ... but rather, just seem to be happening with greater frequency.  Won't go into why - that elephant is what it is... But, since La Nina favors early mild runs anyway, I wonder what happens in the former background land on an El Nina year that is actually attempting to look La Nina for a change... Just a wonder.

 

E QBO la nina seasons, especially ones biased east, actually have a propensity for big finishes, which we touched upon with the SSW aspect.

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11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

E QBO la nina seasons, especially ones biased east, actually have a propensity for big finishes, which we touched upon with the SSW aspect.

Ah ..well, it'll be an interesting battle perhaps. 

My personal suspicion is that the warm event frequency increase is connected to the Planetary concerns ( to put it "mildly" hahaha)... 

The SSW needs to fire off sooner rather than later or I will be a very dull boy :unsure: ... spring enthusiasts don't need that happening in mid February... or you can check out until June 10 with packinmg pellet virga flurry days in May

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Hopefully next year is a modoki el nino....a fifth consecutive significantly subpar season here would be unprecedented dating back to at least 1956.

I am not sure what in the actual fu*# Scott is looking for in terms of regression, but this several year stretch of mine absolutely epitomizes the 1980s. Granted, I am sure its more localized, but it still counts....because if it doesn't, and I need to go through this for another half decade, I am going to beat someone senseless.

What a nightmare-

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ah ..well, it'll be an interesting battle perhaps. 

My personal suspicion is that the warm event frequency increase is connected to the Planetary concerns ( to put it "mildly" hahaha)... 

The SSW needs to fire off sooner rather than later or I will be a very dull boy :unsure: ... spring enthusiasts don't need that happening in mid February... or you can check out until June 10 with packet pellet virga flurry days in May

Yes, independent of any stratospheric stuff, I agree.

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12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The Mighty Storms of New England

I looked at the table of contents a few weeks aga and I wasn't all that impressed.  I decided not to order the book.

An interesting book(although dated, published in the 40's) is Great Storms and Shipwrecks of New England.

Other books:

Historic storms of New England

Early American Winters Volumes 1 and 2

Not New England related but great  reads

All Hell Broke Loose...it's about the Armistice Day blizzard of 1940

Such a Cold Sky....it's about the weather of the Michigan Upper Peninsula... 

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gonn have to watch that 1/25-26 deal. Euro/GEM/Ukie all have something.

And that's not really kicking the can.  1/24-1/26 was always a period of interest. And again a few days later, so we'll see but still some bullets in the chamber. 

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2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

And that's not really kicking the can.  1/24-1/26 was always a period of interest. And again a few days later, so we'll see but still some bullets in the chamber. 

Well we lost the 1/22-24 dual deal...both of those will fail.

 

But the 1/25-26 clipper/redeveloper is looking alive and well. Some of the guidance including the Euro gets southern stream involved too which will add to some of the model chaos, but I think there's a legit chance of a good event even without the southern stream.

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16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gonn have to watch that 1/25-26 deal. Euro/GEM/Ukie all have something.

Yeah agreed... wrote a bit about that a couple pgs back .. interesting stream interaction could evolve there. 

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41 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I looked at the table of contents a few weeks aga and I wasn't all that impressed.  I decided not to order the book.

An interesting book(although dated, published in the 40's) is Great Storms and Shipwrecks of New England.

Other books:

Historic storms of New England

Early American Winters Volumes 1 and 2

Not New England related but great  reads

All Hell Broke Loose...it's about the Armistice Day blizzard of 1940

Such a Cold Sky....it's about the weather of the Michigan Upper Peninsula... 

 

 

 

If I may add another, “Sudden Sea The Great Hurricane of 1938” is very good 

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48 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I looked at the table of contents a few weeks aga and I wasn't all that impressed.  I decided not to order the book.

An interesting book(although dated, published in the 40's) is Great Storms and Shipwrecks of New England.

Other books:

Historic storms of New England

Early American Winters Volumes 1 and 2

Not New England related but great  reads

All Hell Broke Loose...it's about the Armistice Day blizzard of 1940

Such a Cold Sky....it's about the weather of the Michigan Upper Peninsula... 

 

 

 

It's a decent read.   Good blend of meteorology and local accounts.      

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54 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Nature is just saving up her rage for an busy SNE tropical cyclone season. Believing that helps get me thru the doldrums anyway 

I honestly look at these past several years as me paying the piper, so to speak...I know scooter jokes about it, but it gets me through thinking that I'm making deposits into the weather karma bank after bending over 4 years running.

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9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I honestly look at these past several years as me paying the piper, so to speak...I know scooter jokes about it, but it gets me through thinking that I'm making deposits into the weather karma bank after bending over 4 years running.

Another area sucking is Plymouth down to the Cape and over on Cape Anne. Not sure if you noticed, but there winter has been meh last 4 seasons. 

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