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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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7 hours ago, CaryWx said:

So much for the supposed to be below-average forecast for my area between the 15th and 22nd

Were at the point now where long range progs for below average temps in both winter and summer mean nothing more than a day or two below average. This is a painful summer 

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What a bust for rainfall this weekend. We went from an 80% chance of rain today (yesterday mornings forecast) to no rain in the forecast and sunny. Tomorrow still showing 60-70% chances but NOTHING like the rainfall we were thinking over the last 5 days. Thankfully we’re at over 7.5” for the month here so it’s not that bad but what a forecast bust from just 24 hours out

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Everything I am reading states that La Nina will continue into the fall and early winter months.  Not great news for winter storm lovers in the SE.  More importantly, we do not need another dry winter/spring.  There are some indications that it breaks after December.  We shall see.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/fall-season-2022-early-weather-forecast-united-states-europe-fa/

 

 

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3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Brutal summer for us as a whole. Going to remember this one. Lack of interesting tropical weather has made it all the worse.

 From my perspective as regards the SE itself, there has already been one interesting TC: the homegrown Colin. And it is only August 4th, way earlier than the vast majority of years that ever get interesting in the SE.

*Corrected for error

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24 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The tropics have been eerily quiet...

 True but it is still relatively early as the active climo doesn't really get going til late August. If we were to go, say two weeks out with no additional TC and with no indication of anything imminent or on the models, that would tell me a lot more. But as of now, I think that August could easily still end up with 3 NS. 
 A good number of forecasters implied a hyperactive season was a good probability. I don't see it being hyper though I never expected it this season. My current educated wild guess is for an ACE of 120, which would mean active but nothing close to hyper. If we go 2 weeks with nothing new nor imminent, I' will have by then lowered ACE from 120.

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On 8/13/2022 at 7:09 PM, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Best week of this summer so far?

 

Of course, as soon as it cools down we end up with cloudy/drizzly weather for a week straight. My elderly HVAC unit is loving it though (and I'm not complaining 

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No complaining about cooler, cloudy with some passing heavy drizzle from me ^_^ It’s August. Football starts in 17 days, 15 hours, days are getting shorter and pumpkin spice everything will be everywhere soon. I just need to get through the last part of the dog days of summer because I’m over this heat :P 

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Loving this pattern!  Sometimes we get locked into these almost monsoon like August patterns in the SE.  Rare, but looks like this may be one of those Augusts.  Remember August of 1978 as one such August.  

On another note, looking like ENSO moves from La Nina to neutral in January.  How quickly, if it happens at all, and its impacts on our winter weather prospects can't be known at this point.  However, I'm thrilled to be moving out of La Nina!  (allegedly ;))

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

 

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My early feelings about the SE's winter of 2022-3 fwiw:

 We're headed toward a third fall/winter in a row with cold ENSO. Eight others since 1850-51 are as follows based on Eric Webb's research:

1874-5, 1894-5, 1910-1, 1916-7, 1956-7, 1975-6, 1985-6, and 2000-1

 

 Here are how it went for these 8 in the SE in general:

 - 1874-5: nothing of note

 - 1894-5: Feb was the coldest and snowiest Feb on record with back to back extreme cold plunges and heavy snow to the Gulf coast; also, late Dec. had one extreme cold plunge and Jan was pretty cold overall

 - 1910-1: cold Dec and an Arctic plunge early Jan; otherwise nothing of note

 - 1917-8: Dec-Jan along with 1976-7 within the two coldest Dec-Jan periods on record and included well above normal wintry precip. in many areas to the Gulf coast

 -1956-7: nothing notable/mild winter

 -1975-6: cool to cold Dec-Jan overall with several Arctic plunges

 - 1985-6: cold Dec; several Arctic plunges through the winter 

 - 2000-01: one of coldest Decembers on record; some had generous amounts of snow in Dec as compared to climo such as 3" at Atlanta

 

 Summary of SE US temperatures:

- Dec: 5 of 8 cold to cool along with an Arctic plunge in one of the other 4 with only one mild

- Jan: 3 of 8 cold with only one mild

- Feb: 6 of 8 mild although 1895 coldest on record

 

 My conclusions for SE US this winter based on these 8 ENSO analogs:

- Although sample size isn't that big, this analog set is encouraging me to feel that's there's a very good shot at a chilly Dec and a decent chance at a chilly Jan.

- These analogs suggest a very good chance for a mild Feb although 1895 says don't assume anything.

- With 3 of these 8 analogs having historic 1-2 month periods of cold accompanied by ample to historic wintry precip (1894-5, 1917-8, 2000-1), I think there's a good chance for a memorable several week+ period for cold and wintry precip. this winter.

------------------------

I used this from Eric Webb to find the ENSO analogs:

https://www.webberweather.com/uploads/1/1/9/9/119943685/ens_oni_magi_definitions_timeseries_jan_1850_-_jul_2022.xlsx

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On 8/16/2022 at 4:20 PM, Upstate Tiger said:

Loving this pattern!  Sometimes we get locked into these almost monsoon like August patterns in the SE.  Rare, but looks like this may be one of those Augusts.  Remember August of 1978 as one such August.  

On another note, looking like ENSO moves from La Nina to neutral in January.  How quickly, if it happens at all, and its impacts on our winter weather prospects can't be known at this point.  However, I'm thrilled to be moving out of La Nina!  (allegedly ;))

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

 

Well said! I moved here at the beginning of 2020 and have not seen this overcast of a stretch since winters in Ohio. With this much troughiness in the US it's going to shut down the tropics with system after system

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