Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,110
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Elarey7
    Newest Member
    Elarey7
    Joined

January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
 Share

Recommended Posts

10 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Gosh we are getting close in for the euro to be this far off from everything else….my money is on gfs folding at 12z today. 

just hang your hopes on the sampling issue...that will get you through until its sampled then panic...does beg the question where does the euro get it's sampling data or is it just better at extrapolating...or none of those

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

just hang your hopes on the sampling issue...that will get you through until its sampled then panic...does beg the question where does the euro get it's sampling data or is it just better at extrapolating...or none of those

Yeah I mean we’re almost in NAM range and they’re still pretty far apart.  Like I said, euro and eps have been locked in now for several runs with minimal wavering so that’s where my money goes but it certainly is edge of your seat entertainment. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There was something posted yesterday saying the Tonga volvano screwed up some sensors the Euro uses for initialization data and theu were unsure when those would be back online. Could this be the reason the Euro is on an island with this?
I thought volcanic didn't affect our weather till 9 months later
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

To my untrained eye, the Euro looks a little flatter in front than 0z.  Anybody else confirm?  Still gets precip up to us right as the run ends.  Still much better than the GFS

2 runs going the other way with heights if we're being honest with ourselves. I don't know that the euros full phased MECS is the right idea with no support still at 3.5 day leads. 

  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

To my untrained eye, the Euro looks a little flatter in front than 0z.  Anybody else confirm?  Still gets precip up to us right as the run ends.  Still much better than the GFS
If its not 12-18 don't want it
  • Like 1
  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I see the euro still has a SoMD special for the weekend.  When the GFS gonna fold?   The American empire has had its day.  Hey is there a Chinese weather model?

Yes, it's called GRAPES: https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news-from-members/cma-upgrades-global-numerical-weather-prediction-grapesgfs-model-china

39 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

just hang your hopes on the sampling issue...that will get you through until its sampled then panic...does beg the question where does the euro get it's sampling data or is it just better at extrapolating...or none of those

Every time someone mentions "sampling", I die a little inside. Almost all meteorological information is shared internationally....nearly all modeling centers start from the same base set of data from which to choose/utilize. There are two main exceptions: 1) some data is from the private sector and has limits as to how it can be shared, 2) some places aren't allowed to use certain data from some entities; e.g., here in the US we aren't allowed to us observations from Chinese satellites which isn't the case at ECMWF/UKMO, etc. There can be other differences that are a function of data provider, such as who produces retrievals of AMVs, GPS bending angle, etc. Generally speaking, differences is in how the observations are used...not in the observations themselves.

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

There was something posted yesterday saying the Tonga volcano screwed up some sensors the Euro uses for initialization data and they were unsure when those would be back online. Could this be the reason the Euro is on an island with this?

No, see above regarding data. The signal that was in the "innovation" field, which is just the difference between a short term forecast and the observations. In this case, the signal is real as a result of the shockwave and showed up in certain observations that are used in NWP. I do not have it handy, but I bet we would see similar signals in other NWP systems for that same channel. Further, what was shown was just the information that went into that particular DA cycle and not the analysis itself. Even if that signal was put into the model, it would be very short lived....both in terms of that particular forecast but subsequent cycles. It has no bearing on the current set of forecasts.

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Dude, stop.  Wait until 12z before you descent into making us all miserable. It's 1000% better than the GFS still.
Lol im just going by what you all are posting. Plus all the euro sensors got swallowed up by tonga
  • Haha 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’m only comparing the 6z and 0z maps @Weather Will posted, but 6z looks much deeper but a little more progressive with the shortwave? 6z has a broad 543 dm contour through the shortwave. 0z didn’t at all (only 546 dm) except for a tiny closed dot at the base. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Vice-Regent said:

Still nothing compared to what we used to achieve in these parts. Just delivering honest words in this regard.

I am going to enjoy this one for obvious reasons. These things don't happen often.

Every. Single. Post. 
 

I your goal was to be a dick, stop practicing. You’ve mastered it. 

  • Like 4
  • Haha 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...